By: – Fitsum Gebre and Dereje T Asefa

The ongoing crisis in Tigray, which emerged from more than two years of bloody war and atrocities, has raised grave concerns on both national and international fronts. This piece aims to shed light on the multifaceted challenges faced by the region. It examines the role of the interim Administration (IA), the implications of international agreements, the pressing need for humanitarian aid, and issues of accountability.

Tigrayans embraced the establishment of the IA and hoped for the start of a new era since March 2023. The alternative Tigray Independence Party, which had called for a peaceful demonstration, later postponed the rally planned to be holden in the month of IA’s establishment. This postponement was interpreted as a move to give a chance for the IA to demonstrate its inclusivity and dedication to good governance. Those displaced from the west, south, and north of Tigray hoped to return to their homes before the onset of the rainy season. The invading forces from Eritrea and militias from the neighboring Amhara region were expected to leave the constitutionally recognized territories of Tigray, as the Cession of Hostility Agreement (CoHA) stipulated. Normalcy was anticipated in every corner of Tigray. However, these hopes have not materialized, leading to the frustration of the people of Tigray.

The frustration is at its peak

The frustration of Tigrayans with the IA has reached its peak. A significant trigger for this piece is the IA’s blatant repression, using excessive force against civilians who participated in peaceful demonstrations to express their frustrations and call for an end to the sufferings of the people of Tigray. The three alternative political parties waited for six months, hoping to see real changes and the inclusion of different stakeholders, to discuss the pressing issues of Tigray. They finally called for a demonstration titled “Mission for a Radical Change” on the 7th of September 2023. The IA responded by subjecting the demonstrators to various forms of mistreatment, beatings, and arrests. Similar repressions were observed earlier against peaceful demonstrators organized by disarmed veterans of the TDF, who also joined the demonstration called by the three alternative parties. The repression and use of force have angered many Tigrayans, resulting in a massive social media campaign condemning the IA.

Lack of interest in a genuine implementation of the Pretoria Agreement by the central government

The prevailing state of affairs in Tigray is a manifestation of the weak implementation of the CoHA and the ineffectiveness of the international monitoring entity, mainly the African Union (AU) and the US. The CoHA states that the disarmament of heavy weapons of the ‘TPLF combatants’ should take place concurrently with the withdrawal of the so-called non-ENDF forces, which include the Amhara and Eritrean forces. Although the disarmament and demobilization processes from Tigray’s side are almost complete, as confirmed by the international monitoring team, the central government of Ethiopia has not demanded the withdrawal of Amhara and Eritrean forces from the constitutional territories of Tigray and the sovereignty of Ethiopia, respectively.

The central government has not been fulfilling its legal obligation to protect its citizens from atrocity crimes by foreign forces or to provide security guarantees for the unhindered delivery of humanitarian aid. The international monitoring team has remained silent and has not holden the central government accountable for these lapses in commitment. Atrocities and human rights violations continue, as documented from the first day of the invasion. Amnesty International reported on September 4, 2023, about ongoing rape, sexual slavery, extrajudicial executions, and pillaging by Eritrean forces. The recent report by the International Commission of Human Rights Experts (ICHREE) released on the 18th of September, 2023 reveals intentional and systematic human rights violations in Tigray that amount to crimes against humanity by external forces, 11 months after CoHA. ICHREE has also concluded that “Ethiopia has failed in its primary legal duty as a State to protect its population from human rights violations by an external force.”

It is concerning to note the potential termination of ICHREE’s mandate when much remains to be investigated. First the three alternative political parties of Tigray and then TPLF have issued statements demanding support for the extension of the mandate of ICHREE from the international community, which is applaudable. International human rights organizations, such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty, are warning the UN-HRC that now is not the time to terminate ICHREE’s mandate, by highlighting the wide spreading of human rights violations across Ethiopia.

Upsetting silence of Tigray IA about ICHREE

It is disheartening that the IA has not issued a single statement in support of ICHREE, which has been documenting and investigating the atrocity crimes committed in Tigray. Many interpret the IA’s silence as support for the transitional justice mechanism that the central government, the architect of the atrocity crimes, is promoting. Transitional justice might be acceptable if the central government is genuinely willing to involve those opposing it and address the concerns of Tigray. However, it must also be complemented by a parallel international accountability mechanism, as recommended by ICHREE. Many expects for the IA to step up and advocate for the continuation of independent investigations and the necessity of international accountability mechanisms. The continuity of ICHREE will serve as a precursor for the establishment of international accountability mechanism at the same time neutralizes the risk of impunity that the higher authorities of Ethiopia and Eritrea governments are planning to secure.

The unfulfilled promises of IA are eroding the public’s trust

After its establishment in March 2023, the IA defined its mission as ensuring lasting peace, restoring the constitutionally ascertained territorial integrity of Tigray, returning internally displaced people (IDPs) to their homes, calling for accountability, implementing changes in the political landscape, dissociating the government from the party, and rehabilitating Tigray. However, the IA has failed to deliver on any of its promises, a fact admitted by the president. The IA struggles with its inability to demand what the people of Tigray deserve from the central government. Furthermore, the IA lacks a clear roadmap for achieving its stated missions and addressing the sufferings of the Tigrayan people.

The IA’s failure to communicate effectively with lower administrative structures and fulfill its promises has eroded public trust, amplifying the people’s demands for change and accountability. After listening to the president’s interview a day before the peaceful demonstration organized by the three alternative parties, and witnessing incidents of repression and comments from the vice president for Devolution and Democratization on social media, it becomes evident that the IA’s focus leans more towards addressing immediate concerns of maintaining power rather than promoting institutional changes. The widespread corruption cases involving leaders have only intensified the public’s discontent.

Proactive role needed for the complex challenges

Given the complex nature of Tigray’s current challenges, including ongoing conflicts, national instability, undisclosed agreements between the central government and the Eritrean regime, and the involvement of various actors, addressing Tigray’s issues won’t be simple. However, the IA must take a proactive stance, pressing the central government to fulfil its obligations, such as the withdrawal of external forces, ensuring security for aid distribution resumption, resettling the displaced, and safeguarding citizens as outlined in the CoHA, rather than waiting passively for the central government to act. It is evident that the central government is leveraging various issues to exert pressure on the IA. As Tigray remains part of the Ethiopian federation, the IA holds both the responsibility and the right to demand that the constitutional rights of the people of Tigray are respected. With the humanitarian crisis in Tigray intensifying, leading to dire outcomes like starvation deaths, IA must push organizations like WFP and USAID to prioritize humanitarian needs over politics and resume aid delivery to the thousands reliant on it for survival. IA’s recent critique on the reporter about the AU¨s and international community lack of interest to follow up the implementation of CoHA is a commendable pro-activism that should be exercised frequently.

Tigray’s struggle has been for genuine change

The resilience and unity of the people of Tigray in resisting repression from the central government and external forces are commendable. However, these determination and unified purpose don’t seem as robust when it comes to exerting pressure on the IA or other internal entities. The IA’s efforts to tighten its grip on power, coupled with its intolerance to diversity and dominance by a single party, signal a reluctance to usher genuine change. Such reluctance and disregard should motivate Tigrayans to rally together and demand the IA’s accountability to its people, rather than just to a single ruling party. The commitment of alternative political party leaders to pursue their peaceful struggle to achieve questions of participation, good governance, safety, justice and well-beingness is praiseworthily vital. Tigray’s elites should back such efforts until the people of Tigray see the desired changes they are struggling for. The reign of a single hegemonic entity must end for political, socio-economic, technological, and cultural transformations to take roots in Tigray.

Steering Tigray to hopeful horizons

Tigray stands at a crossroads of despair or hope. The onus is on the IA to steer the people of Tigray towards hope and shut the doors to despair. The IA still has an opportunity to implement corrective measures. These include reshuffling the cabinet to ensure representation from various Tigrayan stakeholders and establishing a council to which the IA is accountable, thereby upholding the rule of law, ensuring responsibility and functionality. The people of Tigray deserve a brighter future where their rights are upheld, and their well-being is prioritized. If the IA aims to rebuild trust, it must engage in comprehensive, inclusive, and non-coercive consultations with the people. Every Tigrayan has a part in strengthening democratic institutions, ensuring a balance of power, neutralizing potential security threats, and sowing the seeds of hope for both the current and future generations of Tigray.

  • Fitsum Gebre, (PhD) is an economist and researcher in international research organization.
  • Dereje T Asefa, (PhD), is a Senior advisor for Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) and leader of the Cooperation platform for Tigrayan-Norwegians