Situation in Sudan (per 23 October)

  • Peace talks between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, will resume on Thursday.
  • The first stage of the talks will concern delivery of humanitarian aid and other humanitarian issues, after which ceasefire and finally a political track towards sustainable peace will be discussed, stated Sudanese Lieut. Gen. Shams Aldin Alkabashi.
  • The spread of cholera in Al-Qadarif state in eastern Sudan is increasing, as well as the rates of malaria and dengue fever, states a spokesperson for the Coalition of Civilian Forces in Eastern Sudan.
  • 600 cases of cholera infections with 30 recorded deaths, and 1,900 cases of dengue fever with 22 deaths have been reported, but the actual cases are likely higher, the spokesperson warns.
  • The diseases are also spreading in Kassala state. Both states’ health systems are at their limit.
  • A preparatory meeting is underway in Addis Ababa from 21-24 October for the Civil Front to Stop the War in Sudan. The organisers say participation includes civil society groups, political forces, resistance committees, armed actors, and others.
  • Some of the most prominent participants are Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC), the Sudanese Revolutionary Front, the Justice and Equality Movement headed by Suleiman Sandal (JEM-Sandal), and the Republican Party.
  • The preparatory meeting is expected to develop clear structures and set out a common political vision in preparation for an inaugural meeting of the Civil Front in November.
  • Four scenarios for the conflict in Sudan, ranging from ceasefire to collapse, have been outlined by ACAPS. The most likely scenario identified by ACAPS is protracted conflict.
  • The scenario of a ceasefire has the lowest probability.
  • 40 humanitarian, donor, and academic organisations and independent experts contributed to the scenarios, which were composed to support strategic planning around humanitarian needs.

Situation in Ethiopia/Eritrea (per 23 October)

  • Both Ethiopia and Eritrea have strengthened their troop presence along the Ethiopia/Eritrea border, particularly at the tri-border area of Ethiopia, Eritrea and Djibouti, sources report.
  • Military trucks from Ethiopia are moving in the direction of Adigrat, towards the border. The number of troops are reinforcements, but do not appear to be enough to start a war, observers note.
  • Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed sent a letter to western countries, stating that Eritrea is obstructing the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement, continues to occupy parts of Tigray and is arming the Fano militia in Amhara, states Ethiopian media Ethio Forum.
  • A documentary on Ethiopian television reiterated claims that Ethiopia has a historical right to access the Red Sea and that Ethiopia’s coast line is “occupied by three countries.”

Situation in Tigray (per 23 October)

  • The Tigray Interim Administration (TIA) rejected the national transitional justice initiative proposed by the Ethiopian federal government, stating that it is solely led by the government without international or Tigray input. Tigray officials call for the initiative to be redesigned before implementation continues.
  • Deputy head of the TIA,  Tsadkan Gebretinsae, sent a letter to the Ministry of Justice requesting a meeting to discuss the way forward.
  • People in Mekelle are concerned about rumours of an imminent war with Eritrea.
  • Some areas in Tigray, including Western Tigray and other remote areas, are still inaccessible to humanitarian aid, says the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR).
  • 59% of people interviewed by UNHCR in 12 woredas (of which 58% IDPs) report a lack of food in Tigray. UNHCR warns that food quotas are insufficient and/or not reaching IDPs.
  • 75% say health facilities are destroyed. 72% say schools are closed due to the conflict. Many people continue to live in damaged buildings or in the open. Unexploded ordinances form a threat to security, especially around Adigrat, Zana and Hawzen.
  • 35% of respondents fears rape and/or sexual harassment; in some locations, this fear goes up to 60-70%, including in Endebaguna and Gulo Mekeda. 
  • Many visited locations need cash and material support to restart economic activities.

Situation in Somalia (per 23 October)

  • The government of Somalia recognised the newly formed administration of SSC-Khatumo, which took over the Sool and Sanaag regions (including the city of Laascaanood) in August 2023.
  • The SSC-Khatumo leader, Abdulqadir Firdhiye, spent 10 days in Mogadishu to discuss the situation in the disputed region.
  • The government of Somaliland issued a statement strongly rejecting the formal recognition of SSC-Khatumo’s authority over Laascaanood, and called it a “deliberate attack on Somaliland’s statehood and territorial integrity”.
  • A car bomb operated by a suicide driver exploded at a security post outside of Mogadishu on Saturday, killing six security staff members and injuring at least seven others. Al-Shabaab has claimed the attack.
  • The EU has donated non-lethal military equipment in the form of trucks and trailers to the Somali army.

International Situation (per 23 October)

  • The Eritrean diaspora in Norway held protests in Oslo on Friday in preparation for a key discussion in the Norwegian parliament this week in relation to attacks on expatriate communities, including Eritreans.
  • The parliament will discuss a plan of action in relation to a report, published in 2022, which provides evidence of repression of foreign governments of diaspora communities in Norway, but which has not been followed up thus far.
  • The protest on Friday urged the Norwegian authorities to take action on the report’s recommendations.
  • EU Special Representative to the Horn of Africa Annette Weber met with Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry to discuss the situation in Sudan and the GERD.

Links of interest

Sudan’s warring parties to resume peace talks

Sudan: Anti-war civil forces hold preparatory meeting in Addis Ababa
Ethio Forum on YouTube

Tigray officials demand redesigned transitional justice model

UNHCR Ethiopia | Protection Monitoring and Solutions (PMS) Report #10 | Tigray Region

Somali Federal Government Recognizes New SSC-Khatumo Administration

The republic of Somaliland protests Somalia’s recognition of clan militia’s authority over Las-Anod

Suicide Car Bomb Kills Somali Security Personnel

EU donates military equipment to Somalia

Norway prepares to prevent “Transnational Repression” by foreign powers against diaspora communities

Shoukry meets EU envoy for Horn of Africa to discuss Sudan, GERD issues

Disclaimer: All information in this Situation Report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.