Situation in Tigray (per 6 November)
- The future of western Tigray will be settled through a referendum, stated the Ethiopian government on Monday. It is not known when the referendum will take place.
- The statement was announced today, in relation to the third anniversary of the start of war and the first anniversary of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement.
- The displaced people will be returned to western Tigray and the Ethiopian military will assume responsibility for the security in western Tigray, the government also stated.
Situation in Sudan (per 6 November)
- More than 20 people were killed in Omdurman after shells hit a market amidst heavy fighting between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), states the committee for pro-democracy lawyers.
- Shelling of houses in Khartoum led to at least 15 deaths on Saturday.
- RSF has taken over the SAF headquarters in El Geneina, West Darfur, according to an RSF statement on Saturday. This follows RSF takeover of military bases in Nyala and Zalingei last week.
- RSF shared pictures from within the 15th Infantry Division headquarters in El Geneina and images of captured army staff.
- Women in Darfur are being abducted, held in slave-like conditions, held for ransom and/or forcibly married, according to reports from survivors and witnesses received by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR).
- The UN OHCHR received reports of over 20 women abducted, but fears the real numbers are much higher.
- The abductions are taking place in RSF-controlled areas.
- At least 70% of the incidents of sexual violence confirmed by the UN OHCHR are attributed to men in RSF uniforms, and most of the other incidents are linked to men affiliated with the RSF.
- 420 political violence incidents and over 1,270 deaths were reported across Sudan from 30 September to 27 October, of which 180 were battles, states ACLED.
Situation in Ethiopia (per 6 November)
- Ethiopia’s risk of defaulting on its financial obligations has increased due to a downgrading of Ethiopia’s credit rating by credit agency Fitch Ratings.
- Fitch Ratings downgraded Ethiopia from CCC- to CC, the second-lowest on the scale, as foreign currency reserves have declined to $1 billion, which is equivalent to less than a month of external payments.
- Flight trackers found an increase in cargo flights between the United Arab Emirates and Ethiopia. 24 flights were identified between 27 October and 4 November.
- Some flights have been tracked to the Harar Meda Military Airport in Oromia.
- Heavy weapons are being used in continued fighting between the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and Fano militia in Amhara. The communications blackout in Amhara continues.
- Flash floods in Ethiopia’s Somali region have killed at least 20 people and have displaced 12,000 families. The floods were caused by heavy rains, exacerbated by El Niño.
Situation in Somalia (per 6 November)
- At least 14 people in Somalia have been killed by flooding, and thousands are trapped in their houses in the Luuq district.
- Jubbaland, Hirshabelle, and South West states of Somalia are facing the worst impacts of the flooding. Destroyed infrastructure is making it difficult to reach people.
- Hundreds of sites for internally displaced persons were affected by flooding mostly in South West state.
- 113,690 people have been temporarily displaced from their homes, UN OCHA states.
- There is a high risk of flooding along the Juba and Shabelle rivers, and people all along the Juba river are called to get to higher grounds.
Regional Situation (per 6 November)
- Flooding in Kenya killed at least 15 people over the weekend, and destroyed livestock and farmland. 4,000 families fled their homes.
- Complex emergencies in the Horn of Africa have led to 60 million people requiring assistance in Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia, reports USAID.
- 1.6 million children under five in flood-prone areas in South Sudan are expected to face exceptionally high levels and severities of malnutrition in 2024 due to crowded and waterlogged conditions, warns the World Food Programme (WFP).
- In the county of Rubkona, communities have faced permanent flooding, trapping them on small islands.
International Situation (per 6 November)
- Pro-government and pro-democracy Eritreans clashed on Saturday night in Tel Aviv, Israel. Several people were injured and 10 people were arrested.
- Pro-government Eritreans from the ‘Walta’ movement [meaning shield] held a meeting in Sweden on Saturday. The movement is seen as part of the military front of the Eritrean government.
- Representatives from the Eritrean embassy offices in the Netherlands and Belgium were present at a demonstration in the Netherlands on 16 October, which was organised by pro-government Eritreans for ‘protection’ of their festivals, Eritreans in the diaspora state.
- South Sudanese President Salva Kiir travelled to Cairo in Egypt on Sunday morning to meet abdel Fattah El-Sisi to discuss the conflict in Sudan.
- The EU allocated an additional €11.9 million for humanitarian aid in Somalia and South Sudan.
- €6.4 million will go to the border areas of South Sudan in response to assisting refugees fleeing the fighting in Sudan. €5.5 million will go to the humanitarian response to flooding, conflict and cholera outbreaks in Somalia.
Links of interest
Ethiopia says disputed western Tigray will be settled in a referendum and displaced people returned
More Than 20 Killed in Sudan After Shell Hits Market: NGO
RSF seize Sudanese army headquarters in El-Geneina
Sudan: Alarming reports of women and girls abducted and forced to marry, held for ransom
Sudan: RSF Expands Territorial Control as Ceasefire Talks Resume in Jeddah
News: Ethiopia’s credit rating downgraded by Fitch, amplifying high default risk
A second UAE airlift to Ethiopia
Fighting intensifies in Ethiopia’s Amhara amid blackout
Floods in Ethiopia kill over 20, displace thousands
Somalia floods: Fourteen killed and thousands trapped in their homes
Somalia: Deyr rainy season 2023 Flash Update No. 5 (6 November 2023)
Horn of Africa – Complex Emergency Fact Sheet #12, Fiscal Year (FY) 2023
Death and displacement as floods hit East Africa
Eritreans brawl in Tel Aviv, 10 arrested
Sudan conflict: Yakani hails Kiir’s effort for seek solutions
East Africa: EU allocates more than €26 million in additional humanitarian aid
Disclaimer: All information in this Situation Report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.
Martin Plaut 