Behind the scenes, almost every leader in the region, including in most of the Gulf states, is urging Israel to end the war only after Hamas is defeated, since they view the organization as a dangerous domestic enemy.
Source: Ha’aretz
Israel Approaches the War’s Moment of Truth as Cease-fire With Hamas Lives Another Day
At this point, the delusion that Israel can both continue the fighting and further the release of more hostages is likely to be dispelled. Another deal will be needed, and it will be harder to achieve, due to the price Hamas will demand from Israel.
Israeli military operates near the border with Gaza, during a temporary truce between Israel and Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, in southern Israel, November 29, 2023.
Nov 30, 2023 6:04 am IST
The Israel-Hamas cease-fire in the Gaza Strip, which was supposed to end Thursday morning, is now expected to be extended for a few more days due to understandings reached between the parties.
On Wednesday night, Hamas was slated to release a sixth group of hostages, and it promised the Qatari mediators that it would release additional Israelis held in Gaza in the coming days. It has also released two Russian women kidnapped to Gaza, in a step it portrayed as a gesture to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
But because the organization seeks to retain the hostages whom it deems to be more valuable bargaining chips – around 100 Israeli soldiers and younger adult civilians – negotiations over continuing the deals may well hit an impasse early next week.
Under those circumstances, the chances of the Israeli offensive in Gaza resuming, at high intensity, would grow significantly. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday, “There is no situation in which we won’t resume fighting to the end.”
Over the past few days, there have been reports, mainly speculative, about a deal of “everyone for everyone” being put on the table – that is, a Qatari proposal to free all the Israelis held by Hamas in exchange for all (or most) of the thousands of Palestinians jailed in Israel, together with a long-term cease-fire.
But even if feelers have been put out on this issue, it doesn’t appear to be practical at the moment, since it most likely wouldn’t receive broad public support in Israel.
It’s not inconceivable that the leaks about this proposal are actually meant to serve Netanyahu, who seeks to portray himself as standing up to external pressure. The prime minister, whose support has collapsed in the polls, is also portraying himself as the only person who can prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state.
A permanent cease-fire, without destroying Hamas as both a government and a military force, wouldn’t meet the war’s declared goals and likely seal Netanyahu’s political fate.
Hamas, and in fact Qatar as well, have other considerations. It’s reasonable to assume that from Hamas’ standpoint, it achieved its victory on October 7, when it perpetrated the most lethal terror attack in Israel’s history.
A mass release of Palestinian prisoners would entrench its position as a Palestinian and pan-Arab player, the only one that ever inflicted a double humiliation on Israel. This would also guarantee it massive support in the West Bank and Gaza, and throughout the Arab world.
The Qataris also have an interest in a deal that ultimately saves Hamas’ government. They have invested billions of dollars in the Hamas regime in Gaza, and a new order in destroyed Gaza that was achieved with their help would likely ensure them an even bigger foothold, both economic and political, on the Mediterranean coast.
There are two other actors in this movie whose interests are more complex. The United States wants to restrain Israel’s military moves, but at this stage it isn’t trying to force a deal on Israel or prevent it from continuing military operations in Gaza. And the region’s Sunni Arab states are speaking in two voices.
Publicly, some of them (like Egypt and Jordan) are falling in line with public opinion in their countries and condemning the civilian deaths caused by Israel’s military response. But behind the scenes, almost every leader in the region, including in most of the Gulf states, is urging Israel to end the war only after Hamas is defeated, since they view the organization as a dangerous domestic enemy.
The problem, according to Israeli defense officials, is that within a few days, Israel will find itself running into a wall. Hamas will finish returning the hostages included on the original list (mothers, children, the sick and the wounded), or else it will announce that it hasn’t been able to locate some of them. On Wednesday, the organization was already claiming that the Bibas family – mother Shiri and children Ariel and Kfir – were killed in captivity.
At this point, the delusion that Israel can both continue the fighting and further the release of more hostages is likely to be dispelled. Another deal will be needed, and it will be harder to achieve, due to the price Hamas will demand from Israel.
Yet without a deal, the Israel Defense Forces will resume intensive operations and thereby increase the risk to the hostages’ lives, whether due to the fighting itself and the difficult conditions it creates or due to the possibility that Hamas will kill them.
It’s also worth giving the fighting to date a sober look. Hamas suffered heavy losses and enormous damage in northern Gaza, and it has lost civilian control there. But it still seems far from being militarily defeated.
Its leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, may well prefer to take the risk of continuing to fight, on the assumption that Israel will only get itself into trouble during military operations in southern Gaza, where its forces will have to maneuver amid a denser civilian population.
Nor can we rule out the possibility that even if Hamas eventually finds itself with its back to the wall, Sinwar would prefer to go down fighting and thereby end with what he considers a holy death, in battle.
At Tuesday’s meeting among intelligence agency directors from Israel, the United States, Egypt and Qatar, a new Qatari proposal was reportedly discussed. It calls for sorting the hostages remaining in Gaza once the current stage ends into several categories, in preparation for future deals.
The Washington Post cited a “knowledgeable source,” who sounded like one of the Qatari hosts, as saying the hostages will be divided into five categories – men too old for army reserve duty (Hamas insists on treating all the male hostages as potential soldiers), female soldiers, male civilians who are also reservists, male soldiers (whether conscripts or career soldiers), and hostages who are already dead.
The source said the method of their release, the price Hamas will receive and the amount of humanitarian aid that would flow into Gaza have yet to be discussed.
In conversations between Biden administration officials and Israeli officials, various American proposals were discussed. Washington is interested in trying to continue the hostage deals in the coming days, while extending the cease-fire.
If the fighting resumes, the administration would prefer that Israel first focus on further operations in northern Gaza rather than beginning operations in the densely populated south. It is also asking the IDF to be careful to use precision weaponry and exercise great care when fighting in crowded areas.
Nevertheless, as noted, the moment of decision seems to be approaching.
The IDF’s plans for an offensive in southern Gaza have already been presented to the war cabinet, including efforts to deal with the enormous challenge of relocating the Palestinian civilian population in an area where half the people now present have already been forced to move once, when Israel demanded last month that they move from Gaza’s north to its south.
Martin Plaut 