Situation in Sudan (per 22 January)

  • Between 10,000 – 15,000 people were killed in El Geneina, West Darfur, last year in ethnic violence committed by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and allied Arab militia, a report by UN sanctions monitors to the UN Security Council states. The unpublished report has been seen by various media outlets.
  • The estimates from the report come from intelligence sources. The number doubles the total estimated civilian deaths in the Sudan conflict thus far, which stands at around 13,000. The monitors state that the crimes committed “may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity”.
  • RSF is using large profits from gold mining to fund its operations, the UN report states.
  • The accusations against the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for providing military support to the RSF via Amdjarass in northern Chad are described as ‘credible’ by the UN report. It states that the support was provided several times per week.
  • UAE states that the flights to Amdjarass delivered humanitarian aid and it invited the monitors to visit the field hospital in the city.
  • Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) warplanes reportedly bombed several villages in west Muglad, West Kordofan state, killing eight civilians and wounding four. SAF stated that RSF forces were present in the area, but a journalist reporting from the ground disputes this.
  • RSF is said to be strengthening its presence in West Kordofan, preparing to attack the command of the 22nd Infantry Division in Babanusa.
  • 10 civilians were reportedly killed after a landmine exploded on a bus travelling from Al Jazira state to Shendi in River Nile state.
  • Over 9,700 suspected cholera cases and 269 associated deaths are reported by the UN as of 16 January.

Regional Situation (per 22 January)

  • Sheikh Mohamud, the president of Somalia, met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Egypt this weekend.
  • “Egypt will not allow anyone to threaten Somalia or affect its security,” stated el-Sisi.
  • Redwan Hussein, the Security Affairs Adviser to the Ethiopian Prime Minister, stated that the deal with Somaliland is not an “assumption of sovereignty over the territory of any state”.
  • He further reflected on the commonalities between Somalia and Ethiopia and accused certain actors of falsely portraying themselves as true friends of Somalia while sowing discord in the region.
  • The Sudanese ministry of foreign affairs issued a statement announcing it is stopping its engagement with IGAD.
  • The decision follows IGAD’s statement from last week’s summit which stated that SAF general Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) should meet within two weeks.

Situation in Ethiopia (per 22 January)

  • Heavy fighting in Merhabete, Amhara, was reported last week.
  • Fighting between the OLA and Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) in Oromia and Fano and ENDF in Amhara continued in the first two weeks of the new year, reports the Ethiopian Peace Observatory.
  • The incidents include a transportation strike by OLA declared on 2 January.
  • 19 clashes were reported in the first two weeks of January in Amhara, with heavy fighting in Debre Birhan, Finote Selam and Gondar.
  • Ethiopia inducted an unknown number of Russian-made Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jets and Akinci unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from Turkey. Two Su-30 jets were displayed in the handover ceremony.
  • The African Development Bank stated it will resume its normal operations in Ethiopia after tensions around the assault of two staff members were resolved following meetings with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. A formal apology was issued, as well as a commitment to investigate the incident.

Situation in Tigray (per 22 January)

  • The Tigray Interim Administration (TIA) started implementation of a directive which nullifies all property transitions that took place in the three years following the start of the Tigray war.
  • The directive is implemented to combat fraudulent dealings and corruption during the war period, the TIA states.

International Situation (per 22 January)

  • The European Union implemented sanctions against six entities accused of undermining the stability and political transition of Sudan. The entities are subjected to asset freezes and blocking of resources.
  • Among the sanctioned entities are Defense Industries System and SMT Engineering, accused of manufacturing weapons and vehicles for SAF, and SAF-controlled Zadna International Company for Investment Limited.
  • In addition, Al Junaid Multi Activities Co Ltd, Tradive General Trading and GSK Advance Company Ltd, which are accused of procuring military equipment for the RSF, are sanctioned.
  • The Sudanese and Iranian governments have agreed to strengthen relations and reopen respective embassies in both countries.
  • This development comes after the Sudanese Foreign Minister-designate Ali Al-Sadiq met with First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber of Iran during the 19th Ministerial Meeting of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) in Kampala, Uganda.
  • Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh met with Yemen’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates, Dr. Ahmed BinMubarak, at the sidelines of the NAM meeting in Uganda. They discussed the situation in Yemen and the effect on the Red Sea, and the Houthi militias’ attacks in the Red Sea.
  • Two Eritreans were killed and two injured in Rishon Lezion, Israel. The police reported that the injuries were caused by stabbing. In another fight in Tel Aviv, two Eritreans were injured.
  • The police are investigating the incidents.

Links of interest

Ethnic killings in one Sudan city left up to 15,000 dead, UN report says

Gold Riches Fuel Sudan Militia’s War to Rule Nation, UN Says

Eight Sudanese killed in airstrikes in West Kordofan

Sudan: 10 killed in landmine explosion, medical source says

More than 13,000 people killed in Sudan conflict: UN

Egypt’s el-Sisi says Cairo will not allow any threat to Somalia

Igad: Sudan leaves regional bloc over attempt to end war

Ethiopia says Red Sea access deal with Somaliland not ‘assumption of sovereignty’ over any state

EPO Weekly Update (18 January 2024)

Ethiopia Inducts Turkish Drones, Russian-Made Su-30 Fighter Jets

African Development Bank Group and Ethiopia Resolve to Normalize Relations

Tigray voids wartime property transactions

Sudan: Council adds six entities to EU sanctions list

Sudan, Iran to reopen embassies following diplomatic rapprochement

Foreign Minister confers with his Eritrean counterpart over developments the Red Sea

Two Eritreans dead and two injured in severe violence in Israel

Disclaimer: All information in this Situation Report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.