By Fitsum Gebre and Dereje T. Asefa[*]

Two meeting events happened in February 2024, where the educated elites of Tigray tried to screen out challenges of the political landscape of Tigray and recommend solutions. The first one was the event called ‘Zete nBrake Tigray’ (literally means Dialogue for Prosperity of Tigray) organized by a Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) called Public Diplomacy of Tigray and a consultancy firm “Gerealta Institute for Research on Policy” that took place on February 2024, as dispatched on social media  platforms. Several scholars, representatives of opposition parties, the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF), religious organizations, CSOs and private sector were involved. The scholars presented on topics that are supposed to contribute to overcoming the current political stalemate, where the audience expressed appreciation and raised critical questions.

The second event is the consultations that the Global Society of Tigrayan Scholars and Professional (GSTS) made with alternative political parties, cabinet of the Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA), deputy heads and commissioners, leaders of Tigray Defence Forces (TDF), religious leaders, local CSOs, and officials at the TPLF office including the chairman, came up with diagnosis of Tigray’s challenges, their causes and suggested 16 recommendations. The intension was to create collective understanding, if possible, consensus, among the key stakeholders.

Most of the key stakeholders agreed on the diagnosis of challenges, their causes, and recommendations stated as solutions. Sadly, TPLF and its chairperson expressed reservations, following their official statement, on some of the important recommendations related with the establishment of an inclusive interim Council, dissociation of government and party and the call for reconciliation in Tigray, a sign that Tigraya’s political challenges will persist, regardless of such initiatives.

TPLF as the main obstacle

The political changes, among others, enacting of the federal system, with all its weaknesses, social and economic achievements are some of success stories of the TPLF-led leadership in Ethiopia. Particularly, the impact on lifting the political consciousness and expansion of education in Tigray’s are achievement that can be mentioned. Recognizing such achievements, is good for attracting the party towards a genuine dialogue for political transformation in Tigray.

The failures of TPLF with profound consequences to the people of Tigray are:

  1. Lack of strategic thinking and leadership, admitted by the party itself, including serious security flaws, the inability to avoid the genocidal war that exposed the people of Tigray to horrific atrocity crimes such as, ethnic cleansing, human right abuses, mass killing, gender based sexual violence, etc as well documented by independent investigators, human rights organizations, and international media outlets,
  2. Repeated failure to respond to the demands of the people and the alternative political parties for political transition at the 2020 election, June 2021, and during the formation of TIRA. TPLF‘s only aim was and is to remain as the dominant party, prohibiting ideas and initiatives of inclusivity, regardless of the consequences.
  3. Failure to make genuine documentation of atrocity crimes to ensure accountability, that includes a passive advocacy strategy to demand the extension of the mandate of United Nation’s International Human Right Experts (ICHREE),
  4. Failure to engage the diplomatic world, the diaspora, and inclination to submit to the demands of the central government for transitional justice, and
  5. Failure to support TIRA to undertake its day-to-day governmental activities through its cadre sabotage.

It is very sad to witness that TPLF spent sixty plus days in an internal meeting making without discussing the failures and the current pressing challenges of Tigray, as disclosed by the interim president himself, now a party vice chairperson. A reform long awaited by the people of Tigray, a better strategy and roadmap that improve the political landscape of Tigray are nowhere to see at the conclusion of the meeting either. By saying “we shall proceed with the usual  strategy and leadership”,  TPLF is holding the people of Tigray as a liability as well as putting its existence at risk in the political landscape of Tigray.

Role of Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA)

Months after the Central government and the TPLF signed the Permanent Secession of Hostilities Agreement (COHA) signed in Pretoria, South Africa, TIRA was established. The core objectives have been overcoming the humanitarian crisis in Tigray by ensuring unfettered access of humanitarian aid in form of food and medicine return of the internally displaced, ensuring the territorial integrity of Tigray and demobilize TDF, conditional on withdrawal non-Ethiopian defence Forces (ENDF) forces. Many of them are not realized as of today. As the occupied territories of Tigray are not free from non ENDF forces, the return of the displaced people is impossible to the western, Southern Tigray and Northern parts of Tigray. The failure of the implementation of COHA is caused not only by the lack of willingness of the central government, but also internal power politics between TIRA and TPLF in Tigray. Mediators and external guarantors are in a meeting with TPLF and the federal government of Ethiopia to evaluate the practical implementation of COHA that the signatories are blaming one another for sabotaging. However, the expectations for positive outcomes in favour of Tigray are very low.    

TIRA did not start developing strategies to implement activities to rehabilitate Tigray, improve law and order, and provision of social and economic services either. TIRA has been ineffective because of lack of government structure to channel its commands as allegedly incapacitated by the TPLF. It will be challenging for TIRA to play a significant role in such political landscape of Tigray dominated by TPLF.

The process of the establishment an inclusive interim Council that secures diversity and accountability seems forgotten. Many stakeholders in Tigray emphasize the need for a Council that oversee enforce transparency, responsibility, and accountability on TIRA, which simultaneously dilute the dominance of TPLF and TDF leadership in TIRA.

Role of the alternative parties

The existing unfavourable political environment and dominance of TPLF in the society is one of the reasons for the existence of weak alternative parties in Tigray. The alternative parties are not part of TIRA, and their engagements are scattered as ever. The majority of Tigray’s population is young, who strive for genuine political change, which the alternative political parties can use it as an excellent opportunity. Recent legal recognition of some alternative political parties by the Election Board of Ethiopia opens doors either for real political transformation or possible political manipulations from the federal government to control the political landscape of Tigray.

Realizing the opportunities and risks, the alternative political parties must proactively initiate civilized dialogue, reexamine their roles, and mobilize the population for protest, if necessary, with determination to become agents of change for the best of Tigray.

What next?

The discussions highlighted in the forum and GSTS consultations so far indicate that all political actors, including TIRA, do not explicitly agree on Tigray’s vital interests. This should be the bottom line and all geopolitical implications must be understood in the light of defining Tigray’s vital interests and its future. In the immediate term, TIRA has to be able to go beyond Pretoria agreement. TIRA has to mobilize all resources locally, from the diaspora and donors’ so much it can, to redress starvation, hunger, and death of the people in Tigray. Engaging all capable citizens of Tigray for strategic assessment and decision-making process to secure short, medium, and long-term roadmap for the future of Tigray is essential too.

TPLF must end obstructing TIRA from performing its activities and should rather be open for the idea of inclusivity that- the young generation is demanding. The alternative parties can increase their visibility by devising a better strategy to defy TPLF’s stand and show the people that they are best alternatives for real change. 

The engagement of stakeholders such like Public Diplomacy, Gerealta, GSTS and others in and outside of Tigray is important to boost dialogue. However, such dialogues will not bring changes until the key stakeholders take actions that force TPLF to accept inclusivity for the realization political transformations in Tigray.

 

*Fitsum Gebre, (PhD) is economist researcher

 Dereje T Asefa, (PhD), is a Senior advisor for Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) and leader of the Cooperation platform for Tigrayan-Norwegians