Source: By Justice Malala – Financial Mail

JUSTICE MALALA: An ANC-DA tie-up is not a done deal

What seems like a good idea ignores South Africa’s history and old animosities

05 JUNE 2024 – 06:00

The world is what it is, not what we want it to be. In the run-up to the May 29 election, many analysts and politicians refused to believe what the polls, and anecdotal evidence, were telling them: the ANC had lost the trust of the people and was headed for a seismic loss.

Worse still, even as Jacob Zuma stayed up all night giving interviews to journalists and entertaining diplomats and businesspeople, even as he crisscrossed the country addressing rallies, we refused to believe that what Zwelinzima Vavi had once called the “Zuma tsunami” was back — with a vengeance.

So, in the run-up to election day, many of us clung to the belief that the ANC would get a bloody nose but would do it within a comfortable enough range to easily clinch a coalition deal with one or two like-minded parties (primarily the IFP) and form a cabinet and lead the government. We wanted a soft landing to the demise of the ANC, and so in large measure used available information in a way that supported our desires. It’s called confirmation bias.

Well, last week that blew up in many people’s faces. Zuma and his MK Party have destroyed the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal, winning 45% of all votes cast in that province and 14% nationally. One is reminded of 2007 when, in the run-up to the ANC elective conference, supporters of then president Thabo Mbeki clung to the belief that Zuma would not win the party presidency. Zuma’s victory was so total, so comprehensive, that Mbeki supporters were left dumbstruck.

The world is what it is, not what we want it to be. We must not confuse the two in our analysis.

Which is why I am wary of the confidence that some among us are showing that a coalition deal will be struck between the DA and the ANC. Just because the deal makes sense on paper and would have huge benefits for a country suffering under the weight of mass unemployment, crime, poverty and extremely poor economic growth does not mean it will happen.

Just because many of us can see the benefits of such a tie-up, particularly as opposed to a coalition between a weak and confused ANC and a violence-spewing MK Party or EFF, does not mean we should suspend dispassionate analysis of the chances of success of such a deal.

The world is what it is, not what we want it to be. We must not confuse the two in our analysis

So, the first thing to consider is just how much we, as South Africans, are prisoners of history.

Now that the ANC has finally realised that it is on the ropes, many in its leadership have been weighing in on the character of the DA as a potential partner. It must be noted that a large chunk of the ANC leadership, and particularly the black business wing within it, regard the DA as the party of apartheid. This is objectively not true — it was the ANC that swallowed Marthinus van Schalkwyk’s New National Party whole in 2005, while the DA’s roots lie with the liberal Helen Suzman. That does not matter. The fact is that in the ANC many still reserve a special antipathy for the DA for this reason. This is driving many ANC participants in the debate to push for an ANC-EFF tie-up, claiming it would be a process that “unites” the three ANC factions that are today’s EFF, MK Party and ANC.

Then there is the idea that the ANC is a leftist party. The party’s ally, Cosatu, has already declared that it will not tolerate an ANC-DA coalition because the latter supports the scrapping of the minimum wage and takes a dim view of the power of workers.

Within the ANC, many still believe they are socialists or even communists. Expect the SACP, which has a loud voice in the ANC, to condemn a DA-ANC deal. In the high echelons of the ANC, Gwede Mantashe and others don’t want it.

It is still possible to strike a deal, but supporters of such a tie-up must not fool themselves that it will be a walk in the park. The world is what it is, and our world is one where our histories and prejudices can scupper what might be a great new opportunity for the future. Temper your expectations.