The Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) required full withdrawal of foreign forces as well as non-Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENCDF) forces from the region, concurrently with the disarmament of Tigrayan forces. However, multiple sources report the presence of Eritrean and Amhara forces, both of whom were not involved and are not part of the CoHA, in parts of Tigray. Several areas in Tigray, notably in the region’s northern, western and southern areas, remain unstable or inaccessible as of April 2024
Source: COI Focus
Full report here and extracts below
The Tigray region had an estimated pre-war population of 7,070,260. The number of people killed in the war is unknown. As of February 2023, ACLED had recorded 9,861 reported fatalities in Tigray, Afar, and Amhara regions from 1 November 2020 to 31 January 2023. However, the AU envoy Olusegun Obasanjo noted in an interview with the Financial Times that as many as 600,000 people might have died during the conflict in northern Ethiopia.
According to a study led by Professor Jan Nyssen of the University of Ghent, estimates of civilian fatalities in the period from November 2020 to November 2022 range from 300,000 to 800,000, including indirect deaths (people dying because of a lack of healthcare, malnutrition, etc.)
“Our calculations of the total number of civilian deaths in Tigray, updated up to 31 December 2022, lead to an average estimate of 518k civilian victims in Tigray. The lowest estimate we could realistically make is 311k, and at the upper end a scary 808k. Of these, approx. 10% would be due to massacres, bomb impacts and other killings, 30% due to the total collapse of the healthcare system, and 60% to famine.”
The ICHREE noted in its final report that men were predominantly killed through direct methods such as incidents of mass killings, while women were mainly killed by indirect methods, including starvation, rape, the looting and destruction of infrastructure and the physical, psychological as well as socio-economic impacts thereof.
Violence in the aftermath of the war
On 2 November 2022, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the federal government signed the CoHA in Pretoria.45 The Pretoria Agreement was followed by an agreement on modalities for implementation signed in Nairobi by military leaders from the Federal Army and Tigrayan forces.
A joint committee was established to work out the specific details and procedures necessary to carry out a comprehensive DDR program. Neither the Eritrean troops nor the Amhara and Afar militias took part in the peace negotiations or the Pretoria and Nairobi agreements. Although this last agreement envisaged a withdrawal of non-ENDF and foreign forces from the administrative boundary of Tigray, Eritrean troops and Amhara militia maintained a presence in parts of Tigray as of May 2024.
Multiple sources reported deadly violence right before and during negotiations in the lead up to the CoHA. Examples include the massacre of at least 26 civilians in Semema (near Shire, North Western Tigray) by Eritrean troops on 18 October 2022, the massacre of 65 civilians in Enine (Egela woreda [district], Central Tigray) on 21 October 2022 and the massacres in Mariam Shewito, Endabagerima, Gendebta and other villages near Adwa starting on 25 October 2022.
The CoHA significantly reduced hostilities in Tigray and restored federal authority to the region. It did not, however, lead to an outright cessation of human rights violations and atrocity crimes by armed actors, according to the ICHREE. Abuses by the EDF and Amhara forces, neither of whom are parties of the CoHA, have been reported, including extrajudicial killings of civilians, sexual violence, looting of civilian property, as well as kidnappings and mass detentions.
Forced expulsions and arbitrary detentions of Tigrayan civilians have continued in Western Tigray zone after the CoHA. Several areas in Tigray, notably in the region’s western, north-western, north-eastern and southern areas, remain unstable or inaccessible.50 Multiple sources have warned that unresolved territorial issues could lead to a resumption of the conflict.Mid-February 2024, Amhara and Tigray militias clashed in disputed areas of Southern Tigray zone.
The clashes were short, without causalities, and mainly took place near Korem town as well as in Chercher, Raya Alamata, and Raya Bala woredas, areas that have been de facto in control of the Amhara regional government since the beginning of the conflict in November 2020. These confrontations prompted the ENDF to intervene. According to the Ethiopian Peace Observatory (EPO), they were the first armed clashes in this location since the conflict ended in November 2022.
In the last week of March 2024, violent confrontations occurred in different kebeles in Raya Alamata woreda, reportedly as a reaction by the Tigray forces to the presentation of disputed areas in Amhara’s educational maps and curricula. At the beginning of April 2024, the federal government issued a statement saying that the ENDF will assume the responsibility of safeguarding the peace and security of the areas adjacent to the Amhara and Tigray territories until the issue of identity and boundaries is resolved via a referendum. Armed clashes in April 2024 in Alamata Town and Raya Alamata, Zata and Ofla woredas resulted in an undetermined number of casualties. Over 50,000 people have been displaced from area to neighboring Kobo woreda of North Wello zone and Sekota town of Wag Hamra zone (Amhara region).
The causes of the clashes were a point of contention, with local officials and residents offering divergent narratives. Sources reported that the Amhara administration had withdrawn from the Southern Tigray zone. As of 22 April 2024, the security situation in Alamata, Woldiya and Kobo towns was reportedly calm.
Martin Plaut 