Source: Gareth van Onselen

To what extent does the ANC dominate SA politics? The ANC’s electoral decline has led many to argue its influence is at its weakest. Is that true? Here is a lateral take that suggests otherwise.

There are different ways to influence political thinking. The most obvious, and the goal of most parties, is a dominant majority and power. With that comes the ability to shape the national zeitgeist.

The ANC per se, is currently at its weakest on that front. It has fallen 29.5pts from its high in 2004 (69.9%) to its low this year (40.2%). Its super majority, and a simple majority have both gone. And it is now forced into a GNU and compromise.

But the ANC’s worldview – its grand ideological outlook – is nowhere near as weak. Below is a table that tracks the electoral performance of every party that has directly or indirectly broken away from the ANC, since its formation in 1912.

As of the 2024 election, there are now ten parties with representation in parliament, that fit that bill. Together, they comprise 70% of the vote. True, that is down from a high of 79%, but really that is small. The ANC and its descendants absolutely dominate.

It is being generous too: some among what you might call an “independent” opposition are  not ideologically independent at all, really just variations of the ANC to a large degree. They are not included.

The brutal truth about SA politics is that it that the ANC’s political philosophy – whether mild or extreme- is hegemonic. And its influence is everywhere. Makes you realise that the GNU is something of a modern miracle.

The only thing really, that prevents African Nationalism from being a coherent, totally dominant ideology in SA, in terms of raw power, are the individuals elected to uphold it. If they weren’t so corrupt, divisive and incompetent, it would govern for decades.

It is rare indeed for one ideological outlook to dominate politics so comprehensively, for so long, or for one party to mother so many children, and yet for the proponents of that outlook to fail so comprehensively in consolidating power. And thank goodness for that.