By Eyob Tilahun

  • Fano continued controlling the Amhara region, while the regime struggled to recover from its paralysis. Authorities unable to function on the ground rely on media coverage. No government structure is possible to function with propaganda in media.
  • Fano forces become heavily equipped, combat-ready, smart in their chain of command, politically correct and diplomatic, well-trained, and large in number, but Abiy’s forces become weak. In all measurements of military aspects; Fano continued strengthening itself.
  • Fano proved its commitment to protecting international human rights, which Abiy’s forces grossly violated. In particular, Fano’s proper law enforcement, civilian protection, and handling of surrendered combatants in line with international law are remarkable achievements, but Abiy’s forces failed to do so.
  • Abiy’s forces committed serious and widespread human rights violations amounting to war crimes, crimes against humanity, ethnic cleansing, and genocide continued to be committed. Horror mass graves dot the region.
  • Abiy’s forces have killed, disabled, raped, displaced, damaged property and arbitrarily detained hundreds of thousands of ethnic Amharas.
  • The regime’s prolonged emergency state and an endless three-month plan to disarm Fano changed nothing other than massacring and horrifying civilians.
  • Abiy’s ground forces, who were unable to repel Fano’s attacks, launched countless drones and airstrikes, almost all targeting civilians, not Fano combatants.
  • Abiy became manic due to the unexpected deadlock emanating from its war with Amhara; to exit, he tried to divert attention with various agendas such as accessing the port, but it also put him in another deadlock.
  • Abiy’s line of tension has recently returned to Eritrea from Somalia. Abiy’s troops, crushed by Fano at home, are unable to fire a single gunshot in Eritrea due to fear of catastrophic consequences. So, an armed conflict is unlikely to happen between two countries.
  • The Abiy regime deliberately damaged and dis-functioned many big industries owned by Amhara; recently he declared that as Ethiopia opened its robotic ammunition industry, but I doubt it. Abiy usually brings bluffing to the media when he is stressed.
  • The humanitarian situation in the Amhara region is dire, with over 560,000 displaced people (IDPs) in desperate need of shelter and basic supplies, as conditions in overcrowded and damaged IDP camps deteriorate, according to the Global Shelter Cluster (GSC).