By: Estifanos Mulu

Introduction

Amidst the Tigray region’s Ethiopian two-year devastating warfare from 2020-2022, the region now stands at a very delicate point. It approximately balances on a narrow ledge thanks to fragile peace negotiated by Pretoria Agreement of November 2022, internal power tussles among the Tigray leadership risk rolling back any positive headway achieved to date. Getachew Reda, Tigray’s transitional president, has been getting into quarrels with his predecessor Debretsion Gebremichael (PhD) who is highly regarded as the hero of the Tigray wars. There are growing anxieties of fresh bloodshed resulting from Getachew’s reported dismissal of three Tigray Army generals and the subsequent reported attempted coup. The accompanying essay will discuss detail the underlying causes of the split, its consequences and the ugly prospects for a region which is already on the edge. Antonio Cascais/ DW

Background: From War to Fragile peace

Tigray War came to an end with the Pretoria Agreement, which bears witness to immeasurable human suffering and accusations of crimes, and has restulted in violence throughout. In this agreement, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) was put to rest in disarming on the condition that they would reestablish federal relationships. Former spokesman of TPLF, Getechew Reda, was appointed the head of the interim administration of Tigray after the War, with the responsibility of executing initiatives centered on healing and rebuilding the region. His predecessor, Debretsion, who led the resistance of Tigray during the conflict, held political power along with considerable backing, especially from the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) and other extreme groups.

The Current Crisis: Examining a Socio-Political Power Conflict

Tensions came to a head publicly in late 2023 when President Getachew removed three senior TDF generals because of alleged disagreements related to the military’s restructuring and integration into the federal forces. While Getachew claimed the move was to comply with the Pretoria Agreement’s disarmament provisions, many saw it as a Ruthless Disloyalists Persecution. Only a few days after the elbowing, there were rumors of an attempted coup by some parts of the TDF and political elites sympathetic to Debretsion. 

Experts believe that this division represents even more significant ideological gaps. While Getachew is pushing for more pragmatic engagement with the Addis Ababa government in the hopes of receiving foreign funds targeted at infrastructural reconstruction, there are hardliners such as Debretsion who have less faith in Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and oppose any form of concession that they perceive as weakening Tigray’s independence. This increased TPLF intra-party struggle gives insight into the disintegrating power structure of the purportedly centralized leadership of the TPLF. Reuters

Possible Outcomes: From Repair to Devastation

The primary danger lies in a divided Tigrayan leadership which might undermine self-rule and invite outside participation. A fragmented TDF may explode into competing subdivisions just like the militias that have torn Libya apart. This turmoil might motivate the federal government of

Ethiopia to step in, while pretending to be concern about violence, which would lead to renewed anger from Tigray. Eritrea, who fought with Addis Ababa during the conflict, may take advantage of the situation to further undermine the Tigray region, too.

Humanitarian organizations warn that renewed conflict would exacerbate Tigray’s dire crisis. Over 5 million people rely on aid, with infrastructure decimated and famine looming. Further violence could collapse the already tenuous aid pipeline, triggering mass displacement and starvation.  Fred Harter/ The New Humanitarian

Internationally, the African Union and the U.S., key brokers of the Pretoria deal, face pressure to mediate. However, their leverage is limited without unified local partners. Meanwhile, Tigrayan civilians, weary of war, increasingly voice frustration over elite infighting. “Our leaders are arguing over power while children starve,” lamented a Mekelle resident in a recent interview with Reuters.

Conclusion: A Crossroads for Tigray

Tigray stands at a crossroads. The Getachew-Debretsion rivalry underscores the challenges of transitioning from wartime resistance to peacetime governance. While another full-scale war remains avoidable, the path forward demands urgent dialogue and compromise. Regional mediators must prioritize reconciling Tigray’s factions, ensuring military reforms do not become a zero-sum game.  

For Tigrayans, the stakes transcend political rivalries. Another conflict would not only erase hopes of recovery but also risk a humanitarian catastrophe with regional repercussions. As one analyst noted, “Tigray’s leaders must choose: cling to past grievances or unite for their people’s future.” The world watches, hoping wisdom prevails over wrath.