Hatu Gmedhin, Australia

Eritrea, long overshadowed by crises in Ethiopia, Sudan, and Somalia, quietly plays a destabilizing role in the Horn of Africa, one of the world’s most volatile regions. Under President Isaias Afwerki’s authoritarian rule, Eritrea has adopted a foreign policy marked by calculated aggression and isolation, exporting instability across borders while repressing its own people. Its military involvement in Ethiopia’s Tigray War, unresolved border tensions with Djibouti, and hostile stances toward Sudan and Ethiopia have deepened regional fault lines. Most recently, Sudanese General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) accused Asmara of supporting the Sudanese Armed Forces in their brutal conflict with the Rapid Support Forces, underscoring Eritrea’s role in fueling proxy wars.

Domestically, Eritrea’s indefinite military conscription, systematic suppression of civil liberties, and opaque governance have turned the country into one of the world’s leading sources of refugees. The regime’s prioritization of militarization over diplomacy has stifled regional cooperation and repelled international engagement, draining the Horn of Africa of a generation of Eritrean talent and leaving a fragmented region beset by mistrust, insecurity, and lost potential.

Yet, in the shadow of this authoritarianism, a new civic force is emerging, driven not by generals or militias, but by youth, exiles, and digitally connected organizers. Eritrean diaspora communities across Europe, North America, and Australia have transformed their freedoms abroad into platforms for advocacy, organizing protests, diplomatic campaigns, and human rights initiatives. While these efforts have faced harassment and provocations from regime-aligned actors, sometimes resulting in legal challenges for activists, the movement has matured. It now embraces disciplined nonviolence, civic education, and transitional planning aimed at broadening public support and gaining international legitimacy.

The Blue Revolution

At the heart of this shift is the Eritrean Blue Revolution Front (EBRF), a civic-political coalition committed to ending dictatorship and leading Eritrea toward representative governance. With its recent establishment in Addis Ababa, the EBRF offers regional and international actors a vital opportunity to engage with a credible alternative to authoritarianism. Recognizing and legitimizing this movement is not only a moral imperative but a strategic necessity. The Blue Revolution embodies a collective aspiration to end decades of repression and guide in a new era rooted in freedom and opportunity. The push for regime change is no longer a distant dream but a growing reality both inside Eritrea and throughout its diaspora, presenting a genuine chance to break the political deadlock and set the country on a path toward renewal and regional stability.

Importantly, the EBRF’s approach to sensitive geopolitical issues, such as neighbouring nations’ access to the Red Sea, marks a decisive break from militarized dogma. Rather than viewing the Assab port as a flashpoint, the movement envisions it as a foundation for regional commerce and interdependence. While respecting sovereignty, it prioritizes diplomacy and development over force. Supporting this vision alongside calls for political reform can help transform regional rivalries into shared progress.

The Blue Revolution Front is more than a political alternative; it is a generational aspiration for freedom, dignity, and reform. Its inclusive, forward-looking platform sharply contrasts with the regime’s isolationist and militarized model, which fears that openness and civic engagement threaten its grip on power. However, any transition must be carefully managed. A post-Afwerki Eritrea will require mechanisms for transitional justice, institution-building, economic stabilization, and the restoration of public trust.

International stakeholders must be ready. Lessons from Sudan, Ethiopia, and other transitions underscore the importance of sustained support from the diaspora, civil society, and multilateral partners. Eritrea is no longer a marginal actor; it stands at the crossroads of one of the world’s most strategically vital regions. While regime change alone cannot solve all challenges, it is an essential first step toward lasting peace and prosperity in the Horn of Africa. The world must not remain passive. Eritrea’s transformation is not just a national concern; it is a regional imperative. By backing movements like the EBRF, the international community has a critical opportunity to help reshape the Horn of Africa into a zone of cooperation, development, and stability.