The song by Bob Dylan, Ballad of a Thin Man, contains a haunting refrain: “Something is happening here, but you don’t know what it is, do you Mr Jones?”

And that “something” right now seems to be taking place on the border between Eritrea and Tigray. So what do we know? The Mereb Bridge crossing is open at least for the moment. As the BBC reported, crossings are taking place, with families reunited and joy all round.

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But is this all it seems? Who is making the crossing? Some suggest those allowed to cross are being carefully regulated. Those making the journey are mainly members or supporters of the ruling parties in Tigray and Eritrea – the TPLF and PFDJ.

They say this is not a regular opening of the borders. Movements and trade are being controlled. Not that trade across the Eritrea-Tigray border ever ended, and gold has continued to be smuggled out of Ethiopia for years.

As VOA reported in 2024: the then President of Tigray Getachew Reda told the region’s diaspora community in a Zoom meeting that he believes more gold than reported is smuggled out of Ethiopia. Getachew said what is happening in Tigray is becoming “a crime.”

“It is a very serious problem. It is not just robbery. People are losing their animals because of the dangerous chemical used by the miners. There are people who are known to participate in this network from top to bottom among government and security officials.”

Another Straw in the Wind

Take another straw in the wind. A post by the Twitter site, HornIntelligenceAffairs, a site whose policies are usually closely aligned with Asmara.

Suddenly they suggest that Western Tigray, bordering on Sudan, ‘belongs to Tigray.’

Well, who would have thought, after thousands of Eritrean troops fought and died to prevent Tigray reaching Sudan during the 2020-2022 war which pitched Tigray against Ethiopia, Eritrea and Amhara militia?

Yet now that President Isaias and PM Abiy have fallen out, this animosity is suddenly forgotten. The TPLF and PFDJ seem to be friends once again. The Addis Standard reported this week that:

Debretsion Gebremichael, chairperson of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), said the party is working to ensure that “the people-to-people relations developing between the peoples of Tigray and Eritrea continue to strengthen,” and added that efforts will also be made to establish “similar relations” with other neighboring communities.

Who knows? Perhaps Tigray will gain access to the Red Sea via Massawa or Assab, even if it does not control either port.

Would there be anything that would infuriate PM Abiy more? After all, he has just been told firmly by Djibouti that they will not allow an Ethiopian naval base on their territory.

Djibouti’s President Ismail Omar Guelleh has firmly rejected Ethiopia’s proposal to establish a naval base on Djiboutian territory, stating that his country does not intend to become “the Crimea of the Horn of Africa.”

As Dylan sang back in 1965: “Something is happening, but you don’t know what it is, Mr Jones.”