By Barak Ravid: Correspondent for Axios and CNN

🚨🇮🇱🇵🇸Two years after the terror attack carried out by Hamas on October 7, the war in Gaza is closer than ever to its end, but the Middle East will never be the same again.
🧐Why it matters: The war began with the largest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust and continued with the killing and displacement of Palestinians on the largest scale since the Nakba in 1948.
🇺🇸Two American presidents—Joe Biden and Donald Trump—have been personally and actively involved in efforts to end the war and resolve the hostage crisis, which was the most severe for the U.S. since the takeover of the embassy in Tehran in 1979.
🗺️Even if President Trump’s effort to promote peace succeeds, the human tragedy and geopolitical changes that followed October 7 will be felt for generations.
🇮🇱The big picture: Since October 7, Israel has struck all its enemies in the region with unprecedented ferocity, but its international standing has deteriorated dramatically.
🇵🇸Support for Palestinian rights and the idea of a Palestinian state has risen significantly, with more than a dozen countries recognizing Palestine in the past two years. Conversely, Palestinians in Gaza have found themselves displaced and in desperate need of food aid to survive, while Palestinians in the West Bank have faced increasing oppression.
🇺🇸In the U.S., the war has split the Democratic voter base in the 2024 presidential election and sparked campus protests, which the Trump administration is now using to pressure universities.
🇮🇱The situation: Over the past two years, approximately 2,000 Israelis have been killed in the war across various fronts, according to the Israeli government.
🇵🇸More than 67,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, according to the Hamas-controlled Gaza Ministry of Health.
🇱🇧🇮🇷🇸🇾🇮🇶🇾🇪🇶🇦🇹🇳Thousands more have been killed in the West Bank, Lebanon, Iran, Syria, and Yemen. Since October 7, Israel has attacked a total of eight countries.
🎗️Of the 255 hostages held by Hamas on October 7, 148 were returned alive, and the bodies of 59 others were recovered. Twenty of the remaining 48 hostages are still alive.
🌍How it happened: The war in Gaza quickly escalated into a regional conflict that destabilized the region and reshaped the entire Middle East.
🇮🇷In Iran, 12 days of Israeli bombings, with American participation, dramatically damaged the nuclear program and destabilized the regime.
🇱🇧In Lebanon, Israel eliminated Hezbollah’s leader, killed its senior commanders, and significantly reduced its military and political power. The weakening of Hezbollah facilitated the rise of a U.S.-friendly president after a two-year political crisis. The new government is working to disarm Hezbollah.
🇸🇾In Syria, the Assad regime—weakened by the decline of the pro-Iranian axis—fell in a lightning rebel offensive after 50 years of rule. The new government in Damascus is holding direct talks with Israel for the first time in 25 years.
🇮🇶In Iraq, pro-Iranian Shiite militias declared a unilateral ceasefire under Israeli military threats and American diplomatic pressure.
🇾🇪In Yemen, the Houthi rebels faced a months-long American air campaign and proved they remain a significant military threat to Israel, despite the elimination of many of their leaders.
🇶🇦In Qatar, a failed Israeli airstrike against Hamas leaders united Gulf states in anger against Israel and in demands to end the war. From this chaos, Trump’s peace plan was born. Qatar also became the U.S.’s most important ally in the Arab world, securing an unprecedented defense pact.
🗣️What they’re saying: “Israel has lost a lot of support in the world. Now I’m going to bring all that support back,” President Trump told me last week.
🇺🇸Trump is the only major global leader still standing by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—and even he told me that “Bibi went too far” regarding the war in Gaza.
🇮🇱In recent months, Israeli public opinion polls have shown a clear majority wants the war to end and the hostages released, even if it means Hamas survives to some extent.
🇮🇱Polls also indicate that most Israelis want Netanyahu—who refuses to apologize for his pre-war policy failures or allow the establishment of a state inquiry commission—to resign. Netanyahu rejects claims that he prolonged the war for personal political survival.
⛺️The other side: Gaza has been destroyed and is largely uninhabitable. The entire Palestinian population—about 2 million residents—has been displaced, sometimes multiple times. Nearly all infrastructure has been destroyed. Many homes were systematically demolished by the IDF.
🚚While a significant increase in food supplies entering Gaza in the past two months has halted the spread of famine, the humanitarian crisis in the Strip remains one of the worst in the world.
🪖Hamas has not been destroyed but has been militarily defeated. The organization has lost most of its skilled fighters and heavy weaponry. Its ability to carry out another October 7-style attack in the near future is negligible.
🇵🇸Hamas’s standing and popularity in Gaza have collapsed. The organization is isolated in the Arab world. For the first time, it is willing to give up control of Gaza and even partially disarm.
🇮🇱🇸🇦Between the lines: One of the motives of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in carrying out the October 7 attack was to derail the normalization process between Israel and the Arab world, particularly a potential deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
🥶He succeeded in this. The Abraham Accords have been frozen. Saudi Arabia has adopted a much stronger pro-Palestinian stance, and no Arab leader has dared to appear publicly with Netanyahu.
🇮🇩🇹🇷🇦🇪🇧🇭🇴🇲🇸🇦On the other hand, Trump’s plan to end the war opens an opportunity to return to the path of normalization. It calls for a credible path to a Palestinian state—a key Saudi condition for normalization with Israel—and has brought eight Muslim countries into the peace process.
✡️At the same time, hatred toward Israel, Israelis, and Jews worldwide is at a historic peak. Trump told me last week that he is concerned both about those who glorify the October 7 attack and those who deny it happened.
🇮🇱🇵🇸Israeli and Palestinian societies have undergone profound trauma in the past two years as a result of the war. Large segments of both populations have become more radicalized. Belief in the possibility of lasting peace and hope for any reconciliation process in the short term seem extremely low on both sides.
🇪🇬What’s next: All eyes are on Egypt and the indirect talks taking place there this week between Israel and Hamas. If President Trump succeeds in securing an agreement, reconstruction of the ruins can begin. If he fails, the tragedy in Gaza, Israel, and the region will only worsen.