Aide-Mémoire: Alarming Deterioration of Relations between the Federal Government and Tigray

To: Diplomatic Missions and International Partners

From: The Tigray People’s Liberation Front

Date: November 28, 2025

Subject: Peace on the Brink: Federal Government- Tigray Tensions Surge Toward Crisis.

The TPLF deeply values the invaluable support of the international community in our quest for peace and stability in Ethiopia. Regrettably, the current situation has deteriorated perilously, marked by the Federal Government’s noncompliance with agreements and resort to aggressive measures that jeopardize the peace in Tigray. The unjust denial of the CoHA and provocative military actions have exacerbated the crisis. It is imperative for the international community to swiftly engage in robust diplomatic efforts to address the escalating tensions and safeguard the well-being of the people in Tigray.

1. Federal Government’s Effective Renunciation of the Agreement

It has long been apparent that the Federal Government has lacked genuine commitment to implementing the Agreement. Although it initially undertook limited steps—such as restoring certain public services—these gestures were not followed by meaningful progress. Implementation of the Agreement’s essential provisions soon stalled, revealing a broader reluctance to honor its terms.

This reluctance was recently articulated at the highest level. While addressing the House of Representatives, the Prime Minister stated that he had “forgotten” the Agreement and made clear that he has no intention of implementing it. He further attempted to diminish its legitimacy by characterizing it as an arrangement concluded with a few individuals who now serve under his authority. Such remarks constitute a direct repudiation of the peace accord and raise profound concerns about the prospect of renewed instability. They also signal to both the Ethiopian public and the international community a refusal to allow the people of Tigray the peace and security needed to rebuild their lives.

Compounding this, the Chief of the Armed Forces, Berhanu Jula, publicly pledged—through a nationally televised address—to dismantle the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Other senior civilian and military officials have echoed similar inflammatory rhetoric in public gatherings, invoking threats of destruction and engaging in openly hostile discourse. These statements are heightening tensions and pushing the situation toward a dangerous and potentially irreversible trajectory.

We therefore call upon the international community to act promptly to prevent further deterioration and to press all parties to commence the long-overdue political dialogue. The Federal Government must be urged to refrain from provocative rhetoric and actions, and to re-engage with its obligations under the Agreement. Only a sincere and inclusive political dialogue can prevent a deepening crisis and create a sustainable path toward stability and reconciliation.

2. Federal Government’s Drone Strike on Tigray Security Forces

For some time, we have repeatedly made known that the Federal Government has been organizing, arming, and supporting groups composed of defectors and opportunists to act against Tigray. We have consistently called for the immediate cessation of these state-sponsored activities, which constitute a direct violation of Article 3 of the CoHA. Article 3(2) explicitly prohibits “direct or indirect acts of violence; and subversion or use of proxies to destabilize the other party.”

Recently, these government-backed groups were deployed to destabilize communities along the Tigray–Afar border. They have carried out killings, kidnappings, robbery, intimidation, and sustained harassment against civilians. Despite these repeated provocations, Tigray and the Tigray Security Forces have continued to prioritize dialogue over military escalation.

The situation escalated further when these groups attempted to attack the President of the Tigray Interim Regional Administration and his delegation during an official visit to Southern Tigray, causing multiple casualties. The armed group publicly declared that it had launched war against Tigray and openly appealed for the Federal Government to provide direct military support. On 7 November 2025, the Federal Government, seemingly responding to this call, carried out a drone strike on Tigray Security Forces, causing additional casualties and significant property damage.

It is evident that this drone strike was ordered at the highest levels of government. This is not a routine breach of the ceasefire; it is a deliberate political decision aimed at escalating tensions into open confrontation. Its clear objective is to undermine and ultimately dismantle the CoHA, which has, despite challenges, largely prevented a return to full-scale war.

In the face of daily provocations and even a drone strike and unrelenting drone surviellance, Tigray and its Security Forces have exercised maximum restraint in the hope of preventing a renewed conflict—one that would endanger not only Ethiopia’s fragile peace but could engulf the wider region. The international community must understand that a conflict ignited in Tigray will not remain contained in Tigray. It will spread across a region already burdened by violence and instability.

Tigray therefore calls upon the African Union and the broader international community to intensify their efforts to prevent another catastrophic and potentially genocidal war against the people of Tigray.

3. The Economic Blockade and Siege of Tigray Intensify in Their Most Aggressive Form

The Federal Government continues to enforce a deliberate and crippling economic blockade on Tigray, obstructing the entry of essential goods and driving inflation to levels unseen in recent memory. Fuel restrictions remain severe, forcing the region’s transportation system to depend on scarce and dangerous contraband supplies. This has pushed daily life for ordinary people to an intolerable breaking point. These measures have now escalated into the withholding of the region’s budget—including funds for civil servant salaries and indispensable public services. Each of these actions is part of a systematic effort by the Government to further dismantle an economy already shattered by genocidal violence, while federal institutions work in concert to worsen hunger, deepen instability, and manufacture disorder.

These coordinated assaults are not administrative failures or temporary policy missteps. They are calculated instruments of destabilization. By inflicting fear, deepening poverty, and steadily eroding the endurance of the population, the Government is pursuing the same siege strategy used before and during the war: the planned deprivation of civilians as a means of coercion and collective punishment. Such tactics violate fundamental principles of humanity and constitute serious breaches of international humanitarian law, including explicit prohibitions on starvation and economic blockade as tools of warfare.

Worsening the crisis further, the Government has imposed harsh restrictions on the movement of tourists, investors, foreign nationals, and members of the diaspora seeking to enter Tigray. These restrictions are not security measures—they are acts of isolation intended to suffocate the region’s economic prospects, block external scrutiny, and entrench federal control through coercion.

The international community must confront the reality that what is unfolding in Tigray is deliberate economic warfare against a civilian population already traumatized by conflict. Immediate, coordinated, and sustained action is required to lift the blockade, restore the flow of goods and fuel, reopen travel and access for all visitors, reinstate the region’s lawful budget, and hold accountable those responsible for these unlawful and destructive policies.

4. Deliberate Delay and Coordinated Obstruction of the Return of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)

The people of Tigray who remain internally displaced continue to demand an immediate, safe, and dignified return to their homes. Their prolonged suffering—marked by degrading and steadily worsening living conditions—is fully known to both the Federal Government and the international community. Support for IDPs has sharply declined over time, deepening their desperation. This desperation has manifested visibly, most recently in protests by Tigrayan refugees in Sudan, who receive minimal assistance while being trapped in the midst of another brutal conflict. Within Tigray as well, displaced communities face shrinking food supplies, inadequate shelter, and a future clouded in uncertainty.

Because of the Federal Government’s persistent refusal to implement the Pretoria Agreement, these communities have now endured a fifth rainy season in subhuman conditions. No meaningful steps have been taken toward enabling their return, despite clear obligations under the Agreement. The Federal Government’s inaction appears politically motivated, aimed at prolonging displacement as a means of exerting pressure on and weakening the Tigrayan population. This constitutes a direct and ongoing violation of Article 5(3) of the CoHA.

Recent discussions orchestrated by the Federal Government—conducted with former members of the Tigray Interim Regional Administration and excluding all legitimate Tigrayan institutions, including the TPLF—have further compounded concerns. These plans envision sending IDPs back to areas controlled by the very forces that displaced, abused, and terrorized them in the first place. Such an approach makes a mockery of the principles of safe and dignified return and would effectively hand vulnerable civilians over to those who inflicted their suffering. It is an exercise devoid of credibility and security—a reckless attempt to push people back into the jaws of the same danger they fled.

This deliberate obstruction and the continued conspiratorial maneuvers surrounding the IDP file amount to a grave humanitarian crisis and an unequivocal breach of Ethiopia’s obligations under international humanitarian and human rights law. The safe return of displaced Tigrayans is not only a humanitarian imperative but also a political necessity. It is inseparable from the implementation of Article 9(2) of the CoHA, which stipulates that the Federal Government must ensure Tigray’s representation in federal institutions, including the House of Federation and the House of Peoples’ Representatives. Without the restoration of the displaced population to their homes, genuine political participation and representation cannot be realized.

The safe, voluntary, and dignified return of all IDPs must therefore be treated as an urgent and non-negotiable priority. Any further delay will deepen human suffering, fuel mistrust, heighten tensions, and erode the credibility of the peace process itself.

The Tigray Interim Regional Administration and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) consider the return of IDPs a foremost humanitarian, peacebuilding, and political priority. They remain ready to engage constructively and in good faith with the Federal Government and international partners to facilitate this essential process. The international community is urged to use its influence to ensure the immediate fulfillment of this obligation in full alignment with international norms, standards, and the commitments enshrined in the CoHA.

5. Return of Constitutionally Recognized Territories

Tigray’s position remains unequivocal: all constitutionally recognized territories of the region must be returned immediately, unconditionally, and without political maneuvering. This demand is not a matter of preference but a core obligation under the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA), whose central purpose is the full restoration of constitutional order. Yet, despite the clarity of this provision, the Federal Government continues to evade implementation and instead engages in activities designed to permanently detach these territories from Tigray. Such actions represent a grave breach of both the letter and the spirit of the CoHA.

The Federal Government has been actively training, arming, and directing thousands of militia members—known as the Tekeze Zeb (Tekeze Guard)—with the explicit aim of preventing internally displaced persons (IDPs) and other Tigrayans from returning to areas west of the Tekeze River. Beyond obstructing returns, these militias are being positioned as a force for potential future operations against Tigray. At the same time, armed groups in Tselemti, Sekota, and the Afar region are being organized, equipped, and ideologically primed to disrupt security and stability inside Tigray. Illegally appointed administrators from the Amhara region continue to amplify hostile rhetoric, propaganda, and intimidation campaigns targeting the people of Tigray and its administration. These manufactured tensions are calculated to sow division, fuel animosity, and undermine Tigray’s legitimate constitutional claims.

These unlawful and provocative actions directly contravene the peace agreement and dangerously erode the fragile calm established since the cessation of hostilities. The continued occupation of Tigray’s constitutionally recognized territories is not only a violation of the CoHA—it is a rejection of the Ethiopian Constitution itself, which provides clear, peaceful, and binding mechanisms for addressing territorial disputes. Article 10(4) of the CoHA explicitly requires that all such matters be resolved “in accordance with the Constitution of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia.”

The restoration of Tigray’s constitutionally recognized territories is indispensable for the region’s full reintegration into the Ethiopian federation. It is also a necessary step for implementing Article 9(2) of the CoHA, which obliges the Federal Government to ensure the restoration of Tigray’s representation in federal institutions. Failure to act on this constitutional requirement risks steering the country toward a precarious and unpredictable path—one in which constitutionalism erodes, the rule of law is diminished, and space opens for confusion, unrest, and avoidable rebellious activity. Conversely, adherence to constitutional norms and a principled commitment to peace—within Ethiopia and across the wider region—offers a pathway toward stability, prosperity, and ultimately, a foundation for genuine reconciliation.

In this context, the immediate and unconditional return of Tigray’s territories is not a matter of political discretion; it is a constitutional imperative. The supreme law of the land cannot be displaced by unilateral decisions or attempts to redraw boundaries through coercion. All territorial claims must be addressed strictly through the constitutional mechanisms established for that purpose. Any effort to bypass these procedures not only violates the Constitution but also entrenches lawlessness and cultivates authoritarian tendencies.

6. TPLF’s Continued Commitment to Peace

The TPLF has consistently called upon the Federal Government to engage in a genuine political dialogue aimed at resolving outstanding differences and strengthening peace, constitutional order, and national reconciliation. These appeals have gone unanswered. In parallel, the TPLF has repeatedly urged the African Union, African Union High-Level Panel, the United Nations, and the broader international community to employ their good offices to prevent an avoidable and destructive return to conflict. That call remains urgent. The TPLF once again appeals to the international community to act before the situation deteriorates further.

Throughout this period, the TPLF has remained steadfast in its determination to prevent another genocidal war against the people of Tigray. It has exercised maximum restraint in the face of continued pressures—including efforts to isolate Tigray, economic blockades, budgetary strangulation, and even drone strikes targeting Tigray’s Security Forces. Such disciplined restraint reflects not weakness, but principle. It underscores the TPLF’s unwavering commitment to peace, constitutional governance, and justice. This commitment—demonstrated through tangible self-control—has been instrumental in averting renewed large-scale conflict and affirms the TPLF’s readiness to engage constructively with the Federal Government and all relevant stakeholders in pursuit of a durable and just peace.

7. A Reaffirmed Call for Action

The latest statements and actions by senior Federal Government officials demand a serious and immediate response. Tensions are rising by the day, and the pattern of intimidation directed at Tigray cannot be ignored. As previously documented, the Federal Government continues to take measures that erode the already fragile trust built since the signing of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA). If left unaddressed, these developments risk pushing the country back toward the catastrophic, genocidal violence that the CoHA was meant to end, and could inflict irreversible damage on the Agreement itself.

Against this alarming backdrop, we urge all international partners and stakeholders to take decisive action:

  • Reaffirm the binding nature of the CoHA and insist on its full, immediate, and good-faith implementation.
  • Convene the long-overdue AU High-Level Panel review meeting without further delay.
  • Launch a structured political dialogue to resolve all outstanding issues and disputes.
  • Ensure the safe, dignified, and swift return of all internally displaced persons (IDPs).
  • Restore Tigray’s constitutionally recognized territories promptly and without precondition.
  • Condemn and act against the Federal Government’s continued support for armed groups operating against Tigray, including its drone strike and persistent drone surveillance over Tigrayan skies.
  • Lift all unlawful travel restrictions and guarantee unhindered access to and from Tigray for diplomats, humanitarians, tourists, business actors, and the diaspora.
  • Resume full, predictable, and unimpeded delivery of fuel and essential supplies to the region.
  • End the financial strangulation imposed on Tigray and its administration through unjustified budgetary obstruction.

The moment calls for clarity, resolve, and principled action. The cost of inaction grows heavier by the day.