A diagnosis of the rigid thinking and distorted perceptions driving political conflict. – Viewpoint by Daniel Hailu
Source: Ethiopia Insight, 3 December 2025
Ethiopia’s political discourse is more than a clash of interests and ideologies; it is a collision of collective delusions that have long created and perpetuated instability. These delusions form the psychological basis fueling outward ideological battles and partisan rhetoric.
Political arguments are often driven less by evidence than by entrenched habits of the collective mind. Cognitive rigidity disables the questioning of one’s own long-held assumptions.
Cognitive bias filters information selectively to protect one’s own position. Emotional reasoning allows feeling to substitute for facts.
Anchoring these interlocking mental habits is a cultural dimension. Ethiopian society esteems አቋም—the resolve to stand firm, which is celebrated as a moral virtue. This makes doubt or reflection feel perilous.
To consider alternative perspectives is seen as a wavering of will (ወላዋይነት) or the opportunism of lingering in the middle (መሃል ሰፋሪነት). Consequently, every act of compromise can feel morally and socially suspect.
These social psychological habits ensnare citizens and leaders in government and civil society alike, hardening narratives into absolute truth. What appears to be political conflict is, at its core, a crisis of perception.
The discourse is a war of mindsets unable to see beyond their own distortions, thriving in an Ethiopian environment marked by fear, distrust, scarcity, and trauma. Understanding it requires examining the psychological forces that sustain the country’s political culture.
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Triad of Delusion
Rigidity, bias, and emotional reasoning are key psychological forces that twist minds and harden truths in Ethiopian political discourse.
Cognitive rigidity is a fixed, inflexible way of thinking—the inability to adapt to new information, perspectives, or evidence. It manifests as resistance to nuance and the tendency to reduce complex issues to binaries (good vs. bad; we vs. them).
Rigidity transforms conviction into absoluteness, ensnaring participants in the feeling of being rational even as they remain detached from reality.
In Ethiopian political discourse, this rigidity takes various forms: insisting that one’s analysis or position is always right (dogmatic), resisting scrutiny of one’s own assumptions (closed-minded), or oversimplifying complex problems (reductionist).
Such patterns suffocate dialogue, leaving little room for mutual understanding to emerge.
Where rigidity closes the mind, bias filters perception. In the Ethiopian political space, bias manifests in the bandwagon effect, where ideas are judged by their popularity rather than their merit, and in-group bias, which fosters automatic mistrust of those with different views. Alliances are often motivated by a shared rival rather than a shared vision.
Political participants under its sway overemphasize the faults of the “other” while minimizing or ignoring their own failings (self-serving bias). Words often fail to match actions (hypocrisy), and moral postures can mask opportunism (moral licensing).
Engagement becomes inconsistent or performative (slacktivism). In sum, perception is filtered through allegiance, emotion, and social pressure.
Beneath rigidity and bias lies emotional reasoning, which equates feelings with facts—assuming that because something feels true, it is true. This reasoning reacts to events, claims, or behaviors already filtered through rigidity and bias.
It surfaces as overblown emotional responses (catastrophizing), pleasure in others’ misfortune (schadenfreude), presenting opinion as fact (fact-opinion confusion), prioritizing perception over evidence (the “feeling-is-the-fact” fallacy), or proposing overly simplistic solutions to complex problems (simplification fallacy).
Paralysis of Distrust
When rigidity, bias, and emotional reasoning converge within their social psychological scaffolding of አቋም, ወላዋይነት, or መሃል ሰፋሪነት, polarization becomes inevitable.
Political participants inhabit competing moral universes, interpreting each other’s motives through suspicion. Dialogue collapses into accusation and mutual distrust.
The outcomes are collective behaviors that contribute directly to instability: failing to consider the consequences of one’s actions (consequence neglect), remaining passive in the face of injustice (insensitivity), acting in self-serving, inconsistent, or opportunistic ways, or prioritizing personal or group reputation over truth.
All such behaviors reinforce division. Trust erodes, institutions lose credibility, and governance continues hollowly, functional but morally fractured. Polarization produces paralysis. Political engagement becomes performative rather than constructive.
Trauma’s Legacy
Historical trauma deepens these consequences by anchoring deluded mindsets in past wounds. A collective memory of suffering makes certainty feel safe, compromise perilous, and nuance suspect.
Bias intensifies as past betrayals shape present perception, turning loyalty into suspicion and grief into moral absolutism. Emotional reasoning thrives as fear, anger, and sorrow from history are mistaken for truth, giving simple narratives and symbolic victories undue weight.
Trauma does not just linger; it structures thought, feeling, and judgment, reinforcing patterns that narrow dialogue and harden political imagination.
Delusion can be countered by interventions that cultivate cognitive flexibility and empathy. Flexibility allows minds to revise beliefs, entertain alternative views, and distinguish conviction from certainty.
Political participants can challenge their own delusions through deliberate self-awareness: questioning their assumptions, engaging with ideas on merit rather than allegiance, tempering emotional reactions, and acting with consequential thinking (moral foresight).
The more they practice these, the more they foster trust, broaden understanding, and reduce polarization.
Education and civic culture can reinforce these practices. Critical thinking, historical reflection, and media literacy cultivate flexible reasoning.
Leadership and public discourse can model humility, careful listening, and principled compromise. Over time, small individual habits aggregate into a collective capacity for constructive dialogue.
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Humble Conviction
Ethiopia’s political crisis is as much psychological as it is driven by interests or ideology.
Rigidity, bias, and emotional reasoning intertwine with cultural values, creating a political environment where compromise feels perilous, neutrality is suspect, and delusion thrives.
Breaking this cycle requires the courage to hold conviction lightly, to see others clearly, and to endure discomfort. It also requires self-awareness, integrity, and responsible engagement in discourse.
Political transformation begins inward: in minds capable of thinking, feeling, perceiving, and acting responsibly. Only then can dialogue become meaningful, and a nation long divided by certainty and fear rediscover the capacity to imagine a shared reality.
About the author.
Daniel (PhD) is a multidisciplinary researcher specializing in social protection and social inclusion. He can be reached at danihailu@gmail.com
Martin Plaut 
Sound and informative article that made appreciable attempt based on root cause analysis! Well Done!
A Partial Truth Turned into a Dangerous Abstraction
Daniel Hailu’s diagnosis correctly identifies toxic patterns in Ethiopian political communication and identity formation. The concepts of tehadso (standing firm) and wetetama (lingering in the middle) are indeed powerful cultural shackles.
However, by elevating these psychological factors to the primary cause of the conflict, the analysis commits the very error it describes: it becomes reductionist. It reduces complex, bloody struggles over land, power, money, and survival to a national psychotherapy session.
The true “delusion” may be the intellectual belief that a crisis fueled by genocide, economic blockade, mass displacement, and foreign intervention can be solved by “self-awareness” and “humble conviction.” These are virtues for a functioning polity in peacetime, not a survival manual for a nation in the advanced stages of state failure and multi-sided civil war.
The article’s framework is useful for understanding why negotiations fail and hatreds persist, but it is dangerously inadequate for explaining why the fighting started and what will stop it. The roots of Ethiopia’s crisis are found not just in distorted minds, but in the barrel of a gun, an empty stomach, a stolen election, and a disputed border. No amount of cognitive behavioral therapy can address that.