I had the privileged of meeting with Seyoum Mesfin on several occasions, both during his tenure as Foreign Minister of Ethiopia and after. When discussing the politics of the Horn of Africa, on several occasions he stressed the principled policy that Ethiopia would not be the first country to recognize Somaliland´s sovereignty, but it definitely would be the second. Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has also reportedly confirmed this in public statements. As a neighboring country to Somaliland, the regional hegemon and the host nation of the African Union, it would be politically objectionable for Ethiopia to be the first country to open the door for international recognition of Somaliland.
The TPLF/EPRDF´s position on Somaliland´s right to sovereignty was thus ideologically anchored, and reflected their deep-rooted stand on peoples’ right to self-determination, as well as attuned to diplomatic demeanor and realities.
Israel´s recent recognition of Somaliland´s sovereignty should thus thrust TPLF to issue a statement of endorsement of this move. But, Mekelle is quiescent on the issue – why?
The geopolitics of the Horn of Africa is rapidly being realigned, as state and non-state actors are poised for new wars and conflicts and thus need to enter into new geopolitical alliances to enhance their deterrence and if need be fighting capabilities and capacities.
The Tigray war (2020-2022) created the formidable alliance of Ethiopian, Amhara and Eritrean forces, against the TPLF and sadly by consequence the Tigrayan population as a whole. The Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement signed in November 2022 silenced the guns, but also broke the anti-Tigray war alliance. Eritrea and its President Isaias Afwerki immediately turned against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia, criticizing the Pretoria Agreement as defeatist, since his objectives of the war were not meet: the total annihilation of the TPLF and the litteral eradication of its leadership.
Fast forward to today, as key aspects of the Pretoria Agreement are not implemented and Tigrayan IDPs are succumbing to hunger and dying in droves in camps with no or little hope of returning to their homes in Western Tigray, the TPLF has – from their point of view – been compelled to rethink their position in relation to Addis Ababa and possible new external alliances.
Concomitantly, as Ethiopia has radically ramped up its rhetoric of its «natural right» to access to the Red Sea, Eritrea is increasingly nervous for Ethiopia´s desire to «obtain» Assab. Out of this context – TPLF´s need of external alliances and Eritrea´s desire to weaken Abiy Ahmed internally – tsimdo was born: the new political alliance between Asmara and Mekelle. The former deadly adversaries, are apparently becoming bedfellows in a new tactical alliance against Addis Ababa.
At the same time, the TPLF has always had close connections with the Sudanese army. Today, a Tigrayan army component which was trapped on the Sudanese side during the Tigray war, is allegedly supporting SAF in in their war against RSF. Eritrea too is assisting SAF by training troops to fight the RSF. On the other side, Ethiopia is reportedly facilitating UAE shipments of arms to RSF through Ethiopian territory, as well as allegedly hosting an UAE organised RSF training camp in Benishangul.
This brings me back to the TPLF´s quandary. If Mekelle would issue an endorsement of support for Israel´s recognition of Somaliland, they would go against their new allies (Eritrea-Sudan-Egypt) and position themselves on the side of Ethiopia (and UAE). This would not be taken well by their new friends.
TPLF has always prided themselves of being an ideologically driven party, where policy decisions are firmly anchored in ideological frames. Key among these is the issue of the right to self-determination for nations – an issue TPLF has fought two costly war over and sacrificed hundreds of thousands of Tigrayans. And furthermore, the issue of self-determination including soveregnity for Tigray today is the foremost issue prevailing among many Tigrayans, in TPLF and beyond.
However, in contexts of instability and threats, ideological principles are sacrificed on the altar of transactional alliance building – a principle deeply anchored in «Abyssinian politics». Creating alliances – even to foreign enemies – in order to fight the negus and take control of the palace, has historically always taken preponderance in Ethiopia, and so also today.
Martin Plaut 