Situation in Sudan (per 26 January)

  • Two civilians have been killed by a Rapid Support Forces (RSF) suicide drone strike on the besieged city of Dilling, South Kordofan state, reported The Sudan Doctors Network on Sunday.
  • The network accused the RSF and allied Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), of ongoing deliberate attacks on unarmed civilians and civilian infrastructure.
  • The RSF and SPLM-N have launched a large attack on the Malakal and El Silak areas in southern Blue Nile state on Sunday, with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) reportedly repelling the attacks. 
  • The attack came after the SAF had carried out airstrikes on Yabous and Balila, near the Ethiopian border in Blue Nile state on Thursday.
  • Some experts claim that the RSF offensive marks an attempt to open a new front in Blue Nile state, diverting SAF troops away from the main front in Kordofan.  
  • Six people have died, with 12 injured and dozens missing, in a collapse of Umm Fakrun gold mine in Abu Jubeiha, South Kordofan.
  • The de facto Sudanese government has been relocated to Khartoum from Port Sudan, and held its first meeting on Sunday.

Situation in South Sudan (per 26 January)

  • The South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) called for the evacuation of civilians, NGOs and UN staff within 48 hours from the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLA-IO) controlled areas of Nyirol, Uror and Akobo counties  on Sunday, preparing a large military offensive in “Operation Enduring Peace”.
  • Most of the SSPDF forces are now stationed in Poktap and Padiet in Duk County, located a few kilometers from SPLA-IO front lines in Pajut, supported by the Agwelek militia.
  • Preparations have been paired with aggressive rhetoric by senior military commanders. Particularly, Agwelek commander and chief of defence forces for mobilisation Gen. Johnson Olony addressed his fighters to not spare anyone or anything, not even the elderly, adding “we are defending the nation”.
  • The UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan condemned such rhetoric as “profoundly dangerous”, calling on the warring parties to halt rhetorics and mobilisation, which are heightening “the risk of mass violence against civilians”.
  • The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO) condemned Olony’s directives, saying that it amounts to a calculated return to the ethnic massacres that triggered the 2013 civil war.
  • Observers warned that a forced withdrawal of aid agencies could leave civilians unprotected amid ongoing severe food insecurity, flooding, and displacement.
  • 180,000 people have reportedly been displaced recently by the renewed conflict.
  • President Salva Kiir has invited stakeholders to participate in a committee with signatories of South Sudan’s 2018 peace agreement, opening dialogue on election concerns, scheduled for December 2026.
  • In the committee, the SPLM-IO faction led by suspended First Vice President Riek Machar is reportedly not included, being replaced by SPLM-IO faction aligned with Peace Minister Stephen Par Kuol. 
  • One person was killed with two missing in an attack linked to the renewed fighting on an internally displaced camp in Bor, Jonglei State’s capital

Situation in Ethiopia (per 26 January)

  • The Ethiopian Federal High Court has postponed the hearing of a lawsuit against federal and regional authorities over alleged violations of the rights of internally displaced persons (IDPs) five times.
  • Human Rights First, which submitted the case on 4 November 2025, states that the adjournments are unjustified and are straining the organisation’s resources.
  • The National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) issued a second request to the Tigray Interim Administration to prepare constituency and polling station offices ahead of the 7th national general election in June 2026.
  • The federal government of Ethiopia declared the end of Marburg virus disease (MVD) outbreak as no new cases have been reported for 42 days. There were 14 confirmed cases leading to nine deaths.

Regional Situation (per 26 January)

  • Ethiopia and Djibouti signed a military agreement this Friday aimed at military cooperation on cross-border crimes. The agreement reportedly includes a joint operational structure, exchange of intelligence, and coordinated prevention of cross-border criminal activities.
  • Kenyan opposition leader and former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua alleged that there was an attempt on his life on Sunday as police officers would have attacked a church in Othaya with tear gas and bullets. Gachagua accused President Willim Ruto of organising the attack, but provided no evidence of the attack.
  • 30 supporters of Uganda’s main opposition candidate Bobi Wine have been killed, with 2000 detained, stated army chief and President’s son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba on X, Friday.

International Situation (per 26 January)

  • US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau is travelling with Commander of US Africa Command General Dagvin Anderson to Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti between 24 January and 1 February, among others to discuss peace and security issues.
  • SAF leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan said that there will be no peace deal in Sudan until the RSF is defeated, following a proposal rejected by the RSF to involve  Türkiye or Qatar, and optionally Saudi Arabia and Egypt as mediators.

Links of interest

Drone strike kills two in Sudan’s Dilling, medical group says

Sudan war: New RSF offensive in Blue Nile ‘diversion from Kordofan front’

Sudanese army targets paramilitary RSF positions in Blue Nile State

Sudan cabinet meets in Khartoum for first time since war began

South Sudan army orders evacuation of civilians, NGOs, UN personnel from opposition-controlled areas

“Evacuate now,” army tells civilians in Lou Nuer areas

‘Spare no one, not even the elderly’

South Sudan: UN Commission warns incitement and command failures risk mass atrocities, ethnic mobilisation and further unravelling of peace agreement

UNMISS condemns threats of indiscriminate violence against civilians in South Sudan

South Sudan rebels say army chief sanctioned Olony’s ‘scorched earth’ orders

Kiir to launch dialogue with parties

One killed outside Bor IDP camp, leader says

News: Rights group decries repeated court delays in IDPs lawsuit against federal, regional authorities
NEBE for second time in a month requests preparation of constituency, polling stations in Tigray ahead of 2026 elections
Ethiopia declares end of first-ever Marburg virus disease outbreak                                                                                          

Ethiopia and Djibouti sign military agreement to jointly combat cross-border crime
Kenya’s ex deputy president alleges failed bid to assassinate him

Uganda detains 2,000 after disputed vote, 30 killed: army

Deputy Secretary Landau’s Travel to Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Djibouti

No peace in Sudan until RSF is eliminated — Burhan

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