There is clear evidence of Ethiopian forces being deployed northwards towards the country’s border with Eritrea. Numerous photographs and video of long lines of military vehicles and busses transporting troops North have appeared on social media.

Ethiopian army moves towards Eritrean border

What is not clear is what their objective is. Now an Amhara source, with links to FANO Forces fighting the Ethiopian army across a wide region, suggests that the aim may not be to attack Eritrea directly, but rather to cut entry to northern Tigray by establishing a presence across Eritrea-Ethiopian border routes.

The aim – suggests the source – is to halt weapons supplies reaching the FANO from Eritrea through Tigray and to crackdown on the links between TPLF and Eritrea. In reality, the main source of weapons and ammunition for FANO forces are the supplies they they capture from the government troops.

What PM Abiy’s government is really worried about is the potential that the Tigrayans will arm themselves with strategic drones, while also allowing Eritrea to provide drones to the FANO. It was drones – produced by Turkey and later manufactured in Ethiopia – that turned the tide against the Tigrayans during the 2020-2022 war.

PM Abiy inspects drone operations

Changing alliances reveal possible developments

Since then alliances have changed dramatically. Tigray’s ruling party, the TPLF, and FANO have established ties with Eritrea. They are being actively supported by President Isaias. This triangular relationship might be the background to the threatened conflict.

If this is correct, then the scenario would look like this.

  • ⁠The Ethiopian National Defence Forces [ENDF] might enter northern Tigray and cut the border with Eritrea.
  • If so, the linkage between TPLF-Eritrea-Fano could be disrupted and the TPLF and FANO deprived of weapons.
  • If TPLF resists entry of ENDF to the border area, war between TDF and ENDF might ignited a wider conflict. It is likely to spark an immediate offensive by FANO against the ENDF forces mainly in Gonder and Wollo areas, where government troops are heading towards Tigray.

The Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM), formed 17 January 2026, to unify various factions, appointed Brigadier General Tefera Mamo as Military Commander—the top military leader—with Zemene Kassie as Chairperson (political head), Mekataw Mamo as First Vice Chairperson, and Mire Wodajo as Deputy Military Commander. They have already made it clear that their objective is an anti-regime alliance, including with the TPLF, to defeat Prime Minister Abiy’s forces.

A key question is how Prime Minister Abiy’s forces could continued fighting on multiple battlefields against FANO across the Amhara region, while also considering another war with Eritrea.

An invasion of Tigray?

Others are sceptical of this argument. They argue that the target of the Ethiopian mobilisation is not to cut weapons supplies to FANO. They suggest that the ENDF’s aim is to invade Tigray itself.

ENDF troop deployments reported by various sources show huge detachments positioned from Afar, Amhara, and Western Tigray. If the aim were to cut off weapons supply routes, it wouldn’t make sense for ENDF to deploy forces along the Afar–Tigray border as well as in Western Tigray (in which it already has a very tight hold via “Tekeze Zeb,” a loyal militia led by Demeke Zewdu).

These areas are seen as unlikely routes for weapons smuggling from Tigray/Eritrea to Amhara.

Those who support this view argue that Addis is seeking to upset the current stalemate favoring a Tigray–Eritrea alliance by carrying out a major military offensive involving nearly all of its forces. The aim would be to swiftly capture Mekelle in a blitzkrieg -style attack.

This is seen as a last-ditch attempt to reverse the military-political upper hand currently held by the TPLF, FANO and Eritrea, and possibly including the Oromo Liberation Army. It is a high-stakes gamble.

If it works, Tigray will be pacified and brought under Tsadkan-Getachew-led loyalists and will serve as a springboard for a future military offensive on Eritrea. If it backfires, ENDF will be decimated in the Tigray highlands, leaving the central government extremely vulnerable, possibly paving the way for regime change.

The conflict is likely to spill over into Sudan

Reuters published an investigative report on 10 February, 2026, alleging Ethiopia is hosting a secret military camp in Benishangul-Gumuz region (near Sudan border) to train thousands of Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighters from Sudan, with UAE financing.

These forces could enter the widening conflict inside Ethiopia itself.

Ethiopia's secret camp training Sudanese RSF troops


⁠Eritrea, which is backed by Egypt and the Sudanese Armed Forces operating out of Port Sudan, could also mobilise its allies.

The picture is of a widening regional conflict, sparked by the current Ethiopian mobilisation of its forces to cut Tigray’s links with Eritrea. It is reported that the Ethiopian government is due to hold an emergency meeting today.

This story could develop rapidly.