By Immanuel Alula
Thousands have died in war that is on an identical path to the Yugoslavian war where 140 thousand people died, and four million people were displaced. Ethiopia has 116 million people, or four times the population of Yugoslavia and will have at least four times the number of deaths and displacements not considering ramifications from the disintegration of its regional security role. This means 700 thousand will die and 10 million people will be displaced if action is not taken to end the conflict. In the 1994 Rwandan genocide, 800 thousand people perished, mostly civilians.
What happened to Yugoslavia and how is Ethiopia similar?
After WW2, South Slavic speaking people unified into Yugoslavia, and then divided in 1991 to 2001. Yugoslavia, meaning “South Slavia”, was composed of multiple ethnic groups: Croats, Slovenes, Serbians, ethnic Muslims and more. Under unification they prospered under a socialist-communist government until the oil crisis hit in the 1970s.
Brewing for nearly thirty years was the discontentment with the control ethnic Serbs had over all the other semi-autonomous ethnic regions. It came to the fore in 1991 when Slovenes replaced border guards and took control of their region in the Ten-Day War. This is eerily similar to ethnic Amhara dominance in Ethiopia, and their plans to stifle the autonomy of all the other ethnic regions, most notably the Tigray province; and enforce a policy of Amharization under the banner of Ethiopianism. In Yugoslavia, one by one all the minority ethnic groups fought back and became sovereign nations. The Tigray region is fighting a war with the central government for same reasons, and the other regions will follow as the Croats and other groups in Yugoslavia did. The massacres in Sarajevo against the Bosnians by the Serbs took the world by storm and caused the UN to intervene first via forced negotiations that failed, and then by bombing Belgrade.
Ethiopia is identical to Yugoslavia in that the ethnic majority is refusing to give greater autonomy to all the ethnic regions. It’s fighting a war in the name of national unity and is stifling ethnic federalism (the idea that all ethnic groups have the right to speak their own language in their own schools and courts for example). This is akin to how the Yugoslavian leader Josip Broz Tito crushed ethnic nationalism in minority groups.
The Near Future and Medium Term of Ethiopia
The similarities between Ethiopia and Yugoslavia are striking and if they continue millions will die in Ethiopia. Of Yugoslavia’s population of 24 million 150 thousand died and 2 million where displaced (0.625% dead and 8.3% displaced). Using this data to extrapolate to Ethiopia’s population of 120 million there would be 700 thousand dead and at 10 million displaced (there are already 2 million internally displaced people in Ethiopia). Sadly, the outlook is even more morbid than these estimates, because Ethiopia is the backbone of East African security with military alliances with US (CJTF-HOA), which operates in Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea, Kenya, and Seychelles; fighting ISIS and Al Shaba in Somalia with AMISOM (African Union Mission in Somalia); facilitating peace agreements for South Sudan and more.
Ethiopia will disintegrate into ethnic regions, and the loss of regional security will cause Sudan, Somalia, Somaliland, Kenya, and Eritrea to collapse or weaken. When it does terrorism will blossom. ISIS, Al Shabab, and other or new terrorist groups will wreak havoc for the region and use it as a training and breeding ground. Then they will plague the world with their violence. We already see the weakening of AMISOM in Somalia and increasing attacks by Al Shabab and the Sudan-Ethiopia border war ensuing.
The long-term future of Ethiopia and the HOA is beyond what we’ve seen in Yugoslavia, where wealthy regional European powers intervened in Slovenia, and then again in Bosnia. The future for the Horn of Africa is terrifyingly unknown and must be avoided at all costs. I project, conservatively, the war to be far more disastrous than the Syrian and Yugoslavian war combined. We must all call on the United States, and other superpowers, to force mediation. The cost of failing to act is millions of deaths and tens of millions of displacements. Thousands have died in a short time, millions will follow.
We TIGRAY People, we really thank you for your support and love. Stay strong and Blessed. Thank you once again.
Thank you so much for all hard work. Being the voice for the voiceless.
It is a Genocide what is going on Tigray while the word is kept in dark. Very grateful
best wishes
Thanks Sir! For what you did for the people of #Tigray
You are the voice of 10 M people
I lived on the Balkan for several years during the Balkan wars and I find the situation quite different from Ethiopia where I am living for several years now. The must striking difference is that the Amhara had no power for three decades now. To equate them with the Serbs who controlled Yugoslavia for decades is simply nonsense.
TPLF supporters keep scaring us with a Yugoslavia scenario. This is getting tiresome. The Ethiopian situation is nothing like the Yugoslavia situation. In Yugoslavia, the various non-Serb nations wanted to ceded from Yugoslavia REGARDLESS of whether there is federal arrangement or not. In Ethiopia, the various non-Amhara nations are fighting each other for an arrangement that will give them political domination of Ethiopia. See the difference?
TPLF represents a minority of Ethiopians (6%), and TPLF implemented minority rule by pretending the political system they created promoted regional ethnic autonomy. The ethnic federation of TPLF allowed “self determination” in that it allowed the ethnics to-for example-, to dance and sing in their language – while completely subordinate to Tigray political domination. That is TPLF’s idea of autonomy.
The Amharas tolerated their subordination to TPLF for 27 years because they were exhausted after 17 years Mengistu Haile Mariam’s inept and brutal rule, as well as the war with EPLF. Furthermore, TPLF maintained law and order, and managed the economy quite well. At one point, TPLF was even popular after they announced the GERD project. Amhara tolerance slowly waned because Amharas were no longer willing to be politically marginalized indefinitely.
Amharas had not only lost their leadership role in Ethiopia, they were dominated by Tigray in their own kilil. Tigray annexed large chunks of their historical homeland so Tigray can have access to the Sudanese border. Economically Amharas were marginalized. There was minimal development in Amhara because TPLF is only interested in extracting wealth from the wealthier debub and Oromo regions. The richest Amhara lands like welkiate, tsegede and Humera were simply annexed to Tigray. Remarkably, TPLF even went as far as to control Amhara water resources. Thus they built the GERD as far as from Amhara jurisdiction as possible, right by the Sudanese border in Beni Shangul Gumuz.
The Oromo youth caught on to TPLFs scam and together with Amhara support kicked the TPLF out of power.
However, TPLF had plan B in case they lost control of the central government. TPLF thought they could work out a deal with the Oromo nationalists for some kind of power sharing arrangement that will keep Amharas forever marginalized. TPLF’s role was to use then TPLF led federal army and TPLF special forces to violently suppress Amhara kilil. In exchange, the grateful Oromo nationalists were to let TPLF keep their lucrative investments in Oromia. The Oromos would also agree to giving Tigray a disproportionate share of Ethiopia’s foreign aid and to Tigray keeping the annexed Amhara lands.
TPLF was willing to become a mercenary for Oromo nationalists as long as they get paid handsomely.
Oromo nationalists were willing to pay dearly to TPLF. They have a desperate psychological need to dominate Ethiopia and rule over Amharas in order to overcome the humiliation they feel after being conquered by Amharas in the 19th century.
Part of TPLF’s plan to to subjugate Amharas was to encircle the region. So Beni Shangul and Afar were denied any political independence by leaving them out of the central EPRDF committee.
TPLF’s plan B completely fell apart. Instead of Amhara, it was Tigray that became completely encircled. The federal army and civil serve was purged of TPLF operatives. Their Oromo nationalist allies such as Jawar are locked up in prison. They lost the Amhara land they had annexed. Their investments were all nationalized. Their bank accounts are frozen, and their cash have expired and are useless. Their special forces are fighting for their survival.
The question now is what is the next move of the Oromos nationalist now that their Habeshas (Amhara, Tigray and Eritrea) are busy destroying each other?
Will they try to save TPLF?
Will they make a move and simply take over the Ethiopian state?
The lands belong to tigray
There are census research’s that prove that Amharans aren’t even near to tigrayana on the said region
The lands never belonged to Amhara but Another region that doesn’t exist no more
And they weren’t marginalized by any means too, the Amharans have the richest people in Ethiopia too
Gerd was built in a place were it was easier and better to build
How do you build a dam in the rough terrain of the Amharan highland? When you can build in the Flats of Metekek?
I appireciate the maximum effort you exerted professionally the situation in # Tigray.
Tigray will prevail.
Thank you very much.
You deserve respect not only from Tigryans but olso from Oromo’s.
#Abiy must go
Immanuel.. wanted to write more but, rest assured Ethiopia will not be Yugoslavia. Period. You can try to draw parallel, between 🇪🇹 and Yogoslavia, on the basis of some narrow minded degenerates, but under PM Abiy, Ethiopia will reach new heights. Just sit back and watch.
The real question is what can we do about this man? He is operating against the interest of the 100 million-plus population. It is time for us to seriously think through how we can and will render his lie-peddling project a futile exercise. Food for thought.
You have a great understanding about the situation happening in the horn africa especially about the current crisis in Ethiopia.
We Tigrean’s are very thankful for being the voice of our voiceless people and for standing with the truth.
Please keep the good work.
Please Ethiopians learn from the last 70 years history that dragged your country down . You are killing each other , ride out of the hate war. The Amhara and other people should feel the Tigrayans civilians pain. They are suffering bn the wars.
In my opinion Tigrayans have two choices to win or to die all. I know their motives, The war can’t easily stop . It will probably continue for years.
For the sake of your people and to save Ethiopia , Abi Ahmed must step down and a new leader must seek reconcile all regions. Sit down and share the power then it will be easy to have you unitary power.