Situation in Tigray (per 11 October)

  • The Associated Press (AP) reports that a humanitarian worker based in the Tigray border town of Rama said that they are witnessing the heaviest fighting since the war resumed on 24 August 2022.
  • “Many civilians were killed, and major buildings and infrastructure destroyed, mainly by heavy weapons fired from the Eritrean side,” said the aid worker.
  • According to a diplomat in Addis Ababa cited by AP, an estimated 100.000 Eritrean troops are currently involved in the fighting, including 10 mechanised infantry divisions. Observers comment, however, that the actual number is much greater.
  • According to an unverified video posted by the Afar Federalist Diaspora Coordination Committee, Ethiopia is sending 25 tanks and heavy artillery into Eritrea via the Afar region, potentially signalling a push towards Mekelle from the East.
  • Sources stated to Arbi Harnet that Ethiopian Field Marshal Berhanu Jula and Eritrean General Filipos, who reportedly met in Eritrea this weekend, believe Mekelle cannot be reached as planned by the Ethiopian and Eritrean armies.
  • Those same sources stated that the Jula and Filipos decided that a protracted war with attacks against TDF positions will force Tigray into defeat due to logistics failures and loss of popular support.
  • Professor Mehari Taddele corroborates this analysis stating that Ethiopian-Eritrean and aligned forces have turned a war seeking conquest to one seeking to maximise casualties.
  • According to Tigray regional media, Dimtsi Weyane, an airstrike hit a residential area at Debre Kerbe of Zana district in northwestern Tigray on 7 October killing a mother and severely wounding dozens.

Situation in Ethiopia (per 11 October)

  • According to Ethiopian state media, Fana Broadcasting Corporate, an Ethiopian delegation led by the Ethiopian Minister of Finance, Ahmed Shide, has arrived in Washington DC in the United States.
  • The delegation is expected to participate in the annual bilateral and multilateral discussions of the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
  • Addis Standard says Ethiopia has condemned the attack on the Tadjourah regiment of the Djibouti army at Garabistan that killed seven soldiers.
  • In a statement, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Ethiopia conveyed “its deepest sympathies and condolences to the families of the victims and people and Djibouti.”
  • Oromo scholar Alemayehu Diro has been under arrest for 10 days without having appeared before courts. He was arrested on 29 September by Oromia regional state security forces.
  • Ethiopian President Sahle-Work Zewde states that her government continues to keep the door open for negotiation but that no ‘provocation’ by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front would be tolerated.
  • The National Bank of Ethiopia states it has pressed charges against 391 people accused of illegal money transfers including employees and management of several banks, after freezing numerous accounts last week.

Regional Situation (per 11 October)

  • Spokesperson for the South Sudan’s United Front/Army accused the head of the country’s security service of threatening his life; this would be a violation of the Rome peace talks and Declaration of Principal, says the Sudan Tribune.
  • On 10 October, Mohamed Hamdan Daglo (Hemedti) held a meeting with the Trilateral Mechanism delegation (UNITAMS’s Volker Perthes, African Union Representative Mohamed Belaiche, and IGAD’s Mohamed Younis) to discuss the Sudanese Lawyer’s Bar Association initiative to form a transitional government in Sudan.
  • Belaiche said: “We see that we are getting closer and closer to a settlement satisfactory to all parties to the political process.”
  • Sudan Tribune states that the text of the constitutional proposals is disputed by certain former rebel groups wishing to see the army involved in the process.
  • Sudan’s finance minister will be in Washington this week to discuss relief efforts with the World Bank; the World bank has requested the restoration of the transitional government before debt relief and economic support negotiations can proceed.
  • The African Union Peace and Security Council has directed the AU Commission to appoint a facilitator for the Abyei region in South Sudan. The facilitator will assist the Abyei Joint Oversight Committee and help to provide solutions to the root causes of the disputed  region’s instability and final status.
  • South Sudan’s immigration ministry says it will deport over 20 Eritreans and Ethiopians who fled to South Sudan, reports BBC News.

Links of interest

Ethiopia’s Tigray forces say Eritreans widen war offensive: AP

ደብዳብ ነፋሪት ኣብ ወረዳ ዛና ኣብ ብዙሓት ወገናትን ንብረትን ከቢድ ኪሳራ በፂሑ: Dimtsi Weyane

በገንዘብ ሚኒስትሩ አህመድ ሺዴ የተመራ ልዑክ ዋሺንግተን ዲሲ ገባ: FBC

Ethiopia condemns “barbaric and cowardly” attack on Djibouti army: Addis Standard

Ethiopia’s Tigray forces say Eritreans widen war offensive

Oromo scholar Alemayehu Diro under police custody for more than ten days

Zewde Calls For End Of Tigray War

National Bank to press charges against 391 bank account holders suspected of illegal money transfer

Twitter: Mehari Taddele Maru The enemies their achievement by the number of Tigrayans killed

SSUF/A spokesperson accuses spy chief of threatening him

Hemetti, tripartite panel discuss Sudanese lawyers proposals for transitional government

Sudan’s finance minister in Washington to discuss debt relief with World Bank

AU calls for nomination of special envoy for Abyei

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