Peace negotiations (per 20 March)

  • The International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia (ICHREE) is due to brief the Human Rights Council at the UN in Geneva tomorrow at 3PM CET.
  • On 17 March, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) Central Committee nominated Getachew Reda to be the president of the Interim Regional Administration of the region, reports Tigrai TV.
  • This is based on Article 10 of the Pretoria Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) which calls for ‘an inclusive Interim Regional Administration’ in place of the current regional government.
  • Sources from Tigray say that Ethiopia’s defence minister, Abraham Belay, arrived in Mekelle yesterday to discuss the issue of the interim government.
  • Getachew Reda is a member of the executive committee member of the TPLF and the head of the peace delegation of the region, and has acted as spokesperson for the regional government of Tigray.
  • Getachew Reda met US Secretary of State Blinken prior to the nomination.
  • The nomination is pending approval from Addis Ababa.
  • Social media reports state that Amhara forces attacked civilians in southern Tigray.
  • Several sources reported clashes between Amhara militia forces and Tigray forces near May Gaba in Welkait, which started on 16 March.
  • AU Commissioner Political Affairs, Peace and Security Amb. Bankole Adeoye met Amb. Mike Hammer, US Envoy to the Horn of Africa, on 18 March. They discussed progress on the CoH Agreement. 
  • The Tigrai Universities Scholars Association (TUSA) called on the federal government, the Africa high-level panel commission, the US State Department, and the government of Tigray to take more actions pertaining to the implementation of the CoH Agreement.
  • Referring to Western Tigray, still occupied by Amhara forces, TUSA urges for the restoration of the constitutional borders of Tigray, and to allow people to safely return to their homesteads.

Situation in Tigray (per 20 March)

  • According to UN OCHA, a “vast” number of displaced persons in northern Ethiopia that have returned face a lack of assistance, forcing some to move away again.
  • 73% of the targeted 5.2 million people in Tigray have received food aid in the distribution cycle that started in December, states OCHA.
  • OCHA notes positive developments on the arrival of medicines and vaccinations, although noting that the health services “remain sub optimal.”

Situation in Ethiopia (per 20 March)

  • Ethiopia needs 212 billion birr (4 billion USD) to purchase fuel next Ethiopian fiscal year, according to Ethiopia’s fuel supply enterprise.
  • The enterprise is reported to have said that the national demand for fuel will increase by 200.000 metric tons in the next Ethiopian fiscal year compared to the current one.
  • OCHA states that IDPs from Oromia continue to arrive in the Amhara region. Of the 104 hotspots in Amhara hosting around 600.000 IDPs, 43 are listed as priority one. They are in need of urgent humanitarian assistance.

Regional Situation (per 20 March)

  • Political factions in Sudan have reached an agreement to establish a new transitional government on 11 April this year, says Khalid Omar Yousif, the spokesperson for the signatories to the political settlement in Sudan.
  • The spokesperson said that a joint committee drawn from civilian groups, the national army, and the paramilitary army of Rapid Support Forces will draft a new constitution.
  • About 43.000 people died last year due to drought last year in Somalia, according to a report from the WHO and UNICEF.
  • Large-scale protests took place in Nairobi, Kenya, today. The protests were called by opposition leader Raila Odinga, against the rising cost of living, fuel costs and proposal for a new election board which excludes the opposition.
  • The demonstrations are also a response to an allegation that large numbers of computers used for the elections in 2022 were stolen, suggesting that fraud happened during the elections.
  • Opposition leader Odinga has called for demonstrations every Monday from now on. His vehicle was tear-gassed.
  • At least one person was shot and killed by the police amidst the crackdown on the protests in Nairobi.
  • As the African Union forces plan to leave Somalia at the end of 2024, the leaders of the federal and regional governments of Somalia have reportedly agreed to increase their army and police forces, according to VOA.
  • The leaders are said to have agreed to have a minimum of 30.000 soldiers and 40.000 police personnel, added VOA.

International Situation (per 20 March)

  • A Russian media source states that Russia will open a trade mission in Ethiopia in the second quarter of this year. This was reportedly announced by the first deputy head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade at the International Parliamentary Conference Russia-Africa in Moscow.
  • The ICC indictment of Putin may have repercussions in the Horn where Russia is seeking more influence, especially regarding a harbour and deepening trading in gold and weapons.

Links of interest

UN HRC 52nd session meeting schedule

Who’s the TPLF Presidential Nominee?

ለሚቀጥለው ዓመት የነዳጅ ፍጆታ ግዥ ለመፈጸም አራት ቢሊዮን ዶላር ያስፈልጋል ተባለ

Twitter: Amb. Adeoye

Ethiopia – Situation Report, 20 Mar 2023

Sudan factions agree to form transitional govt April 11 -spokesperson

Report: 43,000 estimated dead in Somalia drought last year

Kenya protests: One shot dead in pro-Raila Odinga rally

Somali Leaders Agree to Increase Troop Numbers

Twitter: Patrick Hensich on Russia and Ethiopia Business relationship

Disclaimer: All information in this Situation Report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to any additional information and corrections.