My friend and colleague, Professor Mirjam van Reisen has posted this warning on Twitter.

I have heard similar suggestions from credible sources. They had spoken to people who had seen heavy weapons being transported near the Eritrean border. They consider that fears of war are real.

There are also concerns that Eritrean refugees in Ethiopia may once again be on the front line.

War fever?

But I have received information that suggest just the opposite.

This points to President Isaias ratcheting up war-fever in order to reduce internal debate about his own performance and the performance of the Eritrean government. The president seized on the injudicious remarks by PM Abiy in Parliament to suggest that Eritrea faces an external threat.

“Declaring ‘I will take yours, but I won’t give you mine’ is not appropriate. Ethiopia, indeed, has every right to pursue access to the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean,” Abiy asserted.

“When we had access to the Red Sea, we were one of the great powers,” the prime minister remarked, emphasizing that “gaining access to the sea should not come at the cost of bloodshed and conflict.”

Ethiopia Observer

Concerns have been repeated on pro-Eritrean government websites, like Tesfanews.

It would certainly not be the first time this tactic has been deployed: Isaias has used foreign adventures to distract internal criticism for years.

So which version of events are accurate? We will have to wait and see.

Perhaps we should remember this famous poem by the great Egyptian poet, C. P. CAVAFY

Waiting for the Barbarians 

BY C. P. CAVAFY

What are we waiting for, assembled in the forum?

The barbarians are due here today.

Why isn’t anything going on in the senate?

Why are the senators sitting there without legislating?

      Because the barbarians are coming today.

      What’s the point of senators making laws now?

      Once the barbarians are here, they’ll do the legislating.

Why did our emperor get up so early, and why is he sitting enthroned at the city’s main gate,

in state, wearing the crown?

      Because the barbarians are coming today and the emperor’s waiting to receive their leader.

      He’s even got a scroll to give him,

      loaded with titles, with imposing names.

Why have our two consuls and praetors come out today wearing their embroidered, their scarlet togas?

Why have they put on bracelets with so many amethysts, rings sparkling with magnificent emeralds?

Why are they carrying elegant canes beautifully worked in silver and gold?

      Because the barbarians are coming today

      and things like that dazzle the barbarians.

Why don’t our distinguished orators turn up as usual to make their speeches, say what they have to say?

      Because the barbarians are coming today

      and they’re bored by rhetoric and public speaking.

Why this sudden bewilderment, this confusion?

(How serious people’s faces have become.)

Why are the streets and squares emptying so rapidly, everyone going home lost in thought?

      Because night has fallen and the barbarians haven’t come.

      And some of our men just in from the border say

      there are no barbarians any longer.

Now what’s going to happen to us without barbarians? Those people were a kind of solution.