ACLED’s East Africa analyst, Dr. Jalale Getachew Birru said:
“On 7 October, Eritrean forces crossed the border at Zelambesa and moved toward the Adigrat-Idaga Hamus route. Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) drones targeted Eritrean troops at Guada as they traveled by vehicle toward Idaga Hamus. According to ACLED data, Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) are heavily present in Atsbi woreda and Kilte Awlaelo woreda near Wukro, in Idaga Hamus, and Adigrat within the Eastern Tigray zone. Many leaders of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) are located in the rural areas of Ahferom woreda in the Central Tigray zone, which borders the Eastern zone.
“Eritrea is suspected of backing the newly formed Alliance for Survival to weaken the Ethiopian government. They do so for two possible reasons. First, Eritrea was dissatisfied with the Pretoria agreement, which ended the 2020-2022 war between the TPLF and the Ethiopian government, because Eritrea sought to eliminate the TPLF due to past grievances stemming from the 1998–2000 border conflict. Second, Eritrea opposes Ethiopia’s quest to access the Red Sea through the port of Assab and seeks to create a buffer between Ethiopia and Eritrea by making Tigray hostile to Ethiopia. Hence, Eritrean forces entered the war in Tigray to halt the Ethiopian government and allied forces from reaching the border and potentially fighting within Eritrea’s territory.”
