An excellent analysis from the FT. The quote by William Gumede is spot on.
This is a defining moment,” Mr Gumede said. “The unions have money, have structures, they have paid-up people, it’s very significant . . . It’s going to have a knock-on effect. This is the most significant break since 1994.
So too is this one from Bloomberg (see below)
“This would count as the most significant split in the grassroots support of the ANC,” Pierre du Toit, a politics professor at the University of Stellenbosch, near Cape Town, said in a phone interview. “It’s a split in the organizational framework of the ruling alliance.”
South Africa crisis deepens after union federation fractures
The crisis blighting South Africa’s governing alliance deepened on Monday when seven unions pledged their support to the powerful metalworkers union, Numsa, after it was dramatically expelled from the main trade union federation over the weekend.
The removal of Numsa, the largest of 19 affiliates of the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu), marked the biggest split in the grouping since Nelson Mandela led the African National Congress to victory in the first democratic elections in 1994.
In a sign that the federation could further fracture, the seven unions on Monday condemned Cosatu’s decision “as irrational and vindictive” adding that it “laid bare a shameful episode in our history as a labour movement”.
Cosatu is part of the ANC-led tripartite alliance, which also includes the communist party. Formed in the 1980s, the federation played a crucial role in the struggle against apartheid and, along with its affiliates, has traditionally been an important source of funding and voter mobilisation for the ANC.
The seven unions said they would suspend their participation its top decision-making committees in protest. Their leaders claim to represent more than 900,000 members, including those belonging to Numsa, and say they are “fighting for the soul” of Cosatu.
Cosatu leaders voted 33 to 24 to expel Numsa after a meeting on Saturday that followed months of infighting that is seen a reflection of broader factionalism in the ANC.
Numsa, which has been accused of contravening Cosatu’s rules, has been an increasingly outspoken critic of the ANC and President Jacob Zuma. It took the unprecedented decision not to endorse the ANC ahead of May elections and also called on Mr Zuma to step down over a scandal involving R246m of taxpayers’ money spent on his private Nkandla homestead.
“This has been a sad and shameful week for the South African trade union movement,” said Katishi Masemola, general secretary of the Food and Allied Workers Union. “Cosatu, once a militant and profoundly democratic trade union federation . . . has been reduced to a factional shell of its former self.”
Numsa is considering whether to form its own political party. It is planning to launch a workers’ movement, the United Front, next month, which it says will be a “weapon for uniting the working class”. The union has also hinted that it could contest local government elections in 2016, when the ANC’s hold on key municipalities, including Johannesburg, Pretoria and Port Elizabeth, is expected to be severely tested.
Gwede Mantashe, ANC secretary-general, described Numsa’s expulsion as “disappointing and tragic”.
“It’s bad for Cosatu, it’s bad for the ANC, it’s bad for the alliance, it’s bad for progressive forces and society in general,” Mr Mantashe said. He added that a Cosatu split would “only help the historic enemies of the alliance, from the right and the left”.
Zwelinzima Vavi, Cosatu’s general secretary, described Numsa’s expulsion as a “guillotine of +350 000 workers [that] is a game changer and will have profound political and organisational implications” in a comment posted on Twitter.
Mr Vavi is seen as a supporter of Numsa and is a critic of Mr Zuma and his administration. In a sign of the organisation’s factionalism, he was suspended by Cosatu last year for having an extramarital affair with an employee. A court later overruled the suspension.
According to William Gumede, chairman of Johannesburg-based Democracy Works foundation, Numsa’s expulsion could create instability in the labour market as rival unions compete for members and push for more militant demands. It could also add to political pressure on the ANC in the run up to the 2016 local elections, he said.
“This is a defining moment,” Mr Gumede said. “The unions have money, have structures, they have paid-up people, it’s very significant . . . It’s going to have a knock-on effect. This is the most significant break since 1994.”
A split in South Africa’s largest labor-union federation is fracturing the African National Congress-led coalition that’s ruled the country since the end of apartheid.
The Congress of South African Trade Unions, or Cosatu, expelled the 350,000-member National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa, on Nov. 8 after it withdrew support for the ANC in last year’s elections. Seven other unions today said they would suspend their involvement in Cosatu and campaign for Numsa’s reinstatement.
“This would count as the most significant split in the grassroots support of the ANC,” Pierre du Toit, a politics professor at the University of Stellenbosch, near Cape Town, said in a phone interview. “It’s a split in the organizational framework of the ruling alliance.”
Numsa is considering forming a new political party that would challenge the ANC in municipal elections in 2016. The union accuses the ANC of pandering to the interests of big businesses and not doing enough to address poverty and a 25 percent unemployment rate.
Cosatu, which had 2.2 million members before Numsa’s exit, was formed in 1985 and helped mobilize protests against white-minority rule. Its financial and organizational support for the ANC has helped the party win more than 60 percent support in every election since 1994. ANC Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, a former union leader, failed in a bid to heal the rift within Cosatu.
ANC Intervention
The ANC will ask Cosatu to reverse its decision to expel Numsa, party Secretary-General Gwede Mantashe told reporters in Johannesburg, saying “having a weaker ally is not good for the ANC.”
Numsa’s expulsion is “disappointing and tragic,” he said. “The expulsion of Numsa is bad for Cosatu, bad for the ANC, the alliance, as well as for society in general.”
Today seven labor groups including the South African Commercial, Catering and Allied Workers Union and the Communication Workers Union said they would boycott Cosatu’s central executive committee meetings for the next three weeks. They reiterated a call for Cosatu to convene a special national congress to plan a way forward for the federation.
“The expulsion of Numsa from Cosatu is an attack on the working class,” Katishi Masemola, general secretary of the Food and Allied Workers Union, told reporters in Johannesburg. “Numsa has been singled out because of the radical decisions that were taken at its democratic congress last December, including the decision not to support the ANC.”
Electoral Support
While the divisions among the unions pose a problem for the ANC, it’s difficult to predict whether they will affect electoral support for the party, said Dirk Kotze, a politics professor at the University of South Africa.
“One should not make an assumption that all members of Numsa will follow the trade union” into a new political party, he said by phone from Pretoria, the capital. “There is not an absolute correlation between union choices and voting behavior.”
Cosatu’s unraveling may also heighten labor tensions in Africa’s second-biggest economy, which is already reeling from the impact of protracted strikes by platinum miners and engineering workers as well as power shortages. The National Treasury forecasts growth of 1.4 percent this year, the slowest pace since a 2009 recession.
Strike Losses
Besides having to deal with dissent among its member unions, Cosatu also faces increased competition from the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union, which led a strike that saw 34 workers shot dead by police at Lonmin Plc (LMI)’s Marikana operations on a single day in August 2012.
The world’s largest platinum producers including Anglo American (AAL), Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. (IMP) and Lonmin lost about 24 billion rand ($2.1 billion) in revenue from a strike that ended in June. It was the second prolonged stoppage at the mines since the Marikana strike.
“The clearest economic implications are that union rivalries will continue to drive labor instability, especially in metalwork, mining and construction; and the upcoming public-sector wage negotiations will be more difficult for the government,” Mark Rosenberg, an Africa analyst with New York-based Eurasia Group, said an e-mailed note to clients.
Workers’ Rights
Tensions within Cosatu came to a head when the federation’s leaders tried to oust General Secretary Zwelinzima Vavi in August 2013, suspending him for having an extra-marital affair with an employee.
The High Court in Johannesburg overturned his suspension on April 4. Vavi has admitted to the affair and apologized for his behavior.
“We want a united Cosatu, with Numsa and our general secretary who fights for workers’ rights,” Aubrey Tshabalala, the Communication Workers Union’s general secretary, told reports in Johannesburg. “We are comfortable with Comrade Vavi being in Cosatu, but we know for a fact that he is the next target.”
Martin Plaut 