By Mulugeta Gebregziabher

As Ethiopia descends deeper into fragmentation, with a weakened center struggling to exert coherent authority, Tigray faces a defining strategic moment. Analysts increasingly describe Ethiopia as a polity marked by “dictatorial regime with weak central authority amidst systemic fragmentation,” where no unified force can impose a national direction.  In such an environment, waiting for a functional federal order may be unrealistic. Tigray should instead pursue a pragmatic path, drawing on Somaliland’s de facto state model, coupled with a robust diplomatic strategy that persuades Western governments to recognize the importance of supporting this course to prevent regional instability and humanitarian catastrophe

Since 1991, Somaliland has operated as a self-governing entity with functioning institutions, relative stability, and repeated electoral processes, despite lacking international recognition. Its legitimacy derives from internal consensus: a constitution approved by referendum, competitive elections, and a governance model rooted in both local traditions and democratic norms.  This combination has enabled it to maintain peace and build credible institutions even in a volatile region. Indeed, in recent days Somaliland has received acknowledgment and recognition from major global powers following its declaration of independence.

Tigray, emerging from devastating war and political uncertainty, is currently engulfed by internal squabbles among its political elite. There are ongoing debates on the future course including whether declaring independence is an option. In my view, Tigray should adopt principles similar to Somaliland’s, prioritizing internal legitimacy over external validation. However, there must be lessons drawn from the past three years.

The leadership of the first and second Tigray Interim Regional Administrations were ineffective, divisive and weak to address the key failures of the implementation of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA) by the Ethiopian Federal government. Thus, the transformation from the current status-quo to Somaliland like de-facto statehood cannot be led by the current political elite. Evidence from within Tigray points to growing divisions, contested authority, and resistance among communities, particularly around coercive mobilization and governance decisions. Analysts also note a long-standing legacy of centralized, party-dominated governance associated with the TPLF, often criticized as rigid and insufficiently accountable.  

A new approach is therefore essential, one grounded in democratic legitimacy, pluralism, responsiveness to a population increasingly disillusioned with top‑down control, accountability and new generation of leaders. Such renewal coupled with principled alliances with neighboring peoples will deepen political maturity and cohesion that are essential for internal and regional stability.

Call to Action: Tigray needs a new governance framework that:

  • Restores representative legitimacy: Reconvene previously elected representatives from each district (Woreda) to form an inclusive transitional government that reflects the people’s last democratic mandate and prepares the ground for free, multiparty elections.
  • Forges principled alliances: Build transparent, values-based partnerships with Ethiopian forces opposing the current government, emphasizing federalism, accountability, and peaceful coexistence rather than opportunistic alignment.
  • Establishes equal rule of law: Implement an emergency legal framework that applies equally to leaders and citizens, ensuring accountability, preventing abuse, misinformation by media outlets and rebuilding trust during this fragile transition.

Tigray’s future hinges not on reclaiming past dominance, but on building a new political contract, grounded in legitimacy, democracy, and the consent of its people.

About the Author

Mulugeta Gebregziabher (PhD) is a Peace Laureate of the American Public Health Association and a tenured professor at the Department of Public Health Sciences, Medical University of South Carolina, USA. He is a peace and justice advocate who also contributes viewpoint articles on the current crisis in the Horn of Africa with a focus on Ethiopia. Disclaimer: the views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of his employer. Mulugeta can be reached at mulugeta.gebz@gmail.com or @ProfMulugeta