Oh dear. This wasn’t a great outcome for Prime Minister Abiy. He will almost certainly (why say almost?) win a massive victory. After all, he controls Addis Ababa and some urban centres.

However:

  • Many opposition parties were banned, sidelined, or substituted by government fakes
  • Voting did not take place in large areas of the country, including Tigray and rural areas of Amhara and Oromia
  • The media (Ethiopian and international) were severely constrained or intimidated
  • The electronic voting system failed leaving many unable to vote
  • There was evidence of ballot box stuffing by Prosperity Party cadres

As an Ethiopian friend told me: “There is no public appetite for an election that everyone knows who will win. Multiple videos have been circulating showing election supervisors filling out votes in bulk.”

Another friend explained to me how even in Addis voters were kept waiting long into the night as the electronic voting system did not work.

So why bother? The “democratic mandate” PM Abiy will have won keeps the international community satisfied, even if most of them have a fairly good idea of how it was obtained.