The Trump administration reportedly sees the isolated East African state as a potential critical minerals and security partner.

Source: African Business

The United States is considering lifting sanctions on Eritrea, as Washington DC seeks to forge a closer relationship with the isolated East African country in the hope of securing stronger commercial and geopolitical influence in the region. The relationship between the US and Eritrea has been fraught for decades, largely over allegations of human rights abuses during the rule of President Isaias Afwerki.

Human rights groups have accused the Eritrean government of conscripting men and unmarried women into military or government posts for indefinite periods of time, repressing freedom of expression and unlawfully detaining perceived critics of the government.

During the 2020-22 war in Tigray, when Eritrea fought alongside Ethiopia against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the United Nations alleged the Eritrean military had engaged in summary executions and the abduction of Eritrean refugees in the region.

In September 2021 the Biden administration imposed sanctions against high-ranking individuals in Eritrea’s ruling party, the People’s Front for Democracy and Justice, as well as other government and military officials. The US government cited “widespread violence, atrocities and serious human rights abuse” in Tigray as the reason for the sanctions.

In early May, however, an internal US State Department document seen by Reuters suggested that it would be rescinding the sanctions, though it has not yet been confirmed precisely when this will happen.

Critical minerals interest

Louis Mazel, who served as the US chief of mission in Asmara between 2014 and 2016, tells African Business that “the Trump administration is much less focused on human rights issues and much more focused on trade and investment, particularly around critical minerals.”

While Eritrea’s critical minerals reserves have yet to be fully explored, the country is home to proven reserves of copper, zinc and nickel, as well as precious metals such as gold and silver. The country sits on the Arabian-Nubian Shield, a geological formation which is rich in critical minerals, precious metals and rare earth elements. Eritrea, which has roughly 750 miles of Red Sea coastline, is also believed to have significant untapped offshore oil and gas potential.

Foreign participation in the mining space is currently limited, partly because the Eritrean nakfa is a non-convertible currency and it is therefore difficult to repatriate profits through standard international banking systems. What private sector activity does exist is dominated by Chinese firms.

A Canadian mining company, Nevsun Resources, started gold production at the Bisha mine west of Asmara in 2011, and this later expanded to include copper and zinc production. In 2019, however, Zijin Mining, China’s largest mining company by market value, acquired Nevsun Resources’ majority stake for $1.4bn; the following year a case over allegations of forced labour at the mine was settled out of court.

Mazel says that Eritrea’s apparent rapprochement with the US could be motivated by a desire to diversify its trading partners and lessen dependence on Chinese firms.

“The Eritrean government does not necessarily want the Chinese to be the only ones investing in their minerals sector – they would welcome US investment so that the Chinese do not have a monopoly on the sector,” he notes.

Geopolitical real estate

Beyond the potential commercial opportunities for US firms in Eritrea, the ongoing conflict in Iran has also made the country more strategically significant for America. Eritrea shares a maritime border with Yemen; the two countries are separated by as little as 20 km at the narrowest point of the Bab el-Mandeb strait.

The Houthis, an Iran-aligned group deemed to be terrorists by the US, exert de facto control over the capital Sana’a, the Red Sea coast and approximately 80% of the Yemeni population. The group has threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a shipping chokepoint for traffic towards the Suez Canal, as a retaliation for US-Israeli action against Iran.

This would throw the global economy into deeper jeopardy at a time when markets are already reeling with the impact of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, another key shipping lane through which roughly a third of global oil cargo passed before the conflict.

“If there was an effort by the Houthis to shut down the Red Sea in alignment with the Iranians shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, that would really be catastrophic for world trade,” Mazel tells African Business. “With Eritrea occupying a very strategic position across from Yemen, I would imagine we [the US] may want Eritrean cooperation in trying to prevent the Houthis from shutting down the Red Sea as a shipping lane.”

Egypt’s role

The geopolitics of the immediate region may also have played a key role in encouraging this thawing of relations. Gelila Enbaye, an analyst focusing on the Horn of Africa, tells African Business that Egypt may have played a key role in mediating between the US and Eritrea. Cairo has increasingly been positioning itself as an intermediary between the US and its adversaries in the Middle East and Africa. Alongside Pakistan, Egypt has also recently sought – so far unsuccessfully – to broker an enduring deal between the US and Iran.

Enbaye notes that Egypt is at loggerheads with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which it fears could reduce the amount of water reaching it through the River Nile. She argues that Egypt is seeking to isolate Addis Ababa by encouraging closer ties between Washington DC and Asmara.

Ethiopia and Eritrea have also had a tense relationship in recent years, with Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed threatening to invade Eritrea in order to secure access to the Red Sea.

“Egypt has been strongly encouraging this rapprochement and has been trying to get the US to engage with Eritrea,” Enbaye tells African Business. “Egypt sees the GERD as a big threat to its ability to operate its economy and maintain the livelihoods of its population. Egypt has therefore been trying to create a challenging diplomatic environment for Ethiopia.”

Ethiopian complications

Both Enbaye and Mazel note that closer ties with the US are tactically useful for Eritrea at a time when it is being threatened by Ethiopia. “With relations having soured again between Ethiopia and Eritrea, that might be another reason why Eritrea is looking for some more friends,” Mazel says.

A rapprochement with Eritrea might, however, complicate US ties with Ethiopia, itself a major regional diplomatic power. Relations with Ethiopia have been complicated since the country’s civil war in the Tigray region. In September the Trump administration renewed a national emergency order, first issued by the Biden administration in September 2001, which says that “the situation in and in relation to northern Ethiopia… continues to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States.” This national emergency declaration allows the US to impose targeted sanctions on individuals, politicians and military entities.

But on 14 May the US State Department’s Directorate of Defense Trade Controls officially removed Ethiopia from its International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) “policy of denial” list. This move ended the formal arms embargo imposed in September 2021 during the Tigray War, allowing for a resumption of controlled defence exports.

Enbaye says that the US has been in touch with Ethiopia to smooth over any differences regarding its Eritrea policy.

“It seems like the US has also been engaging Ethiopia diplomatically in recent days, for example by lifting the arms embargo on the country. Given the fragile security situation, it appears that the US wants to maintain a close and strategic partnership with Ethiopia and does not want to alienate the country by only incentivising Eritrea to de-escalate.”