Ethiopia’s top officials say old adversaries are finding common causein a loose anti-government alliance stretching from Tigray to Eritrea.Its alleged members deny it exists. So, is Tsimdo an emerging force ora convenient enemy?

By Sheriff Bojang Jnr

To the Ethiopian authorities, Tsimdo is a shadowy alliance linking Eritrean actors, Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) hardliners and other opponents of the federal government. To those accused of being part of it, it is little more than a political fiction, an exaggerated label usedt o cast suspicion on contacts that fall far short of a formal alliance.

As tensions rise between Addis Ababa, Mekelle and Asmara, the term has taken on a life of its own. It has become shorthand for a growing fear inside Ethiopia’s leadership that some of the actors who found themselves on opposing sides during the Tigray war may now be exploring areas of cooperation.

What is clear is that Tsimdo has become inseparable from widerquestions about Ethiopia’s security, its strained relationship with Eritreaand the future of the Pretoria peace deal.

From obscure political term to national security concern

Tsimdo has been circulating in Ethiopian political and security circles for months, appearing in speeches, commentary and increasingly pointedwarnings from senior officials. But it gained fresh prominence earlier this month when Ethiopian National Defence Force chief field marshal Birhanu Jula used a military graduation ceremony to issue a stark warning about what he described as a dangerous alliance working against Ethiopia’s national interests. 

He accused forces associated with Tsimdo of attempting to undermine Ethiopia’s strategic objectives and linked the alleged coalition to effortsaimed at keeping the country cut off from maritime access.

The remarks echoed concerns previously raised by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Last week, intelligence chief Redwan Hussein and former Tigray interim president Getachew Reda took the argument a step further. In a joint op-ed published by Al Jazeera, they accused hardline TPLF elements, allegedly backed by Eritrea, of preparing for renewed hostilities against the federal government.

“The forces intent on perpetuating a state of hostility came together under Eritrean tutelage in a band of misfits they dubbed Tsimdo,” the pair wrote.“Right now, this alliance, cobbled together in covert and not so covert meetings in Asmara, Mekelle and Sudan, is poised to trigger another round of conflict.”

The warning reflected a growing conviction within parts of Ethiopia’sleadership that old adversaries may be finding common cause. Beyond official statements, however, the picture is far less clear.

So what exactly is Tsimdo?

Rooted in Tigrinya, the language of the Tigray people of northern Ethiopia and parts of Eritrea, Tsimdo traditionally conveys ideas of connection, cooperation and mutual understanding. Today, however, it is more often associated with allegations of a shadowy anti-government coalition linking actors in Eritrea and Tigray, claims that those accused of belonging to it strongly reject.

Mulugeta Gebrehiwot, former director of the Institute for Peace andSecurity Studies (IPSS) at Addis Ababa University and a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics, says even those supposedly involved struggle to explain what Tsimdo actually is.

“Officially, there is nothing detailed about its objectives and structures,”he says. “The Eritreans say there are people-to-people connections andgrassroots initiatives. You hear similar things from TPLF officials.”

The real question is whether growing interaction across the Eritrea-Tigraydivide amounts to anything more than convenience and circumstance.

Connor Trumpold, East and Horn of Africa analyst at Control Risks, says there are signs of practical cooperation between some of the actors frequently associated with Tsimdo. He points to reports of TPLF forces concentrating around Sheraro near the Eritrean border, as well as allegations of logistical support from Eritrea, including fuel and weapons shipments.

“The TPLF, Sudanese Armed Forces and Eritrea are united by their sharedopposition to the federal government, but I’m not sure we can describe itas a formal alliance,” he tells The Africa Report. “There are still significantmutual suspicions, particularly between Eritrea and the TPLF.”

Beyond those indications, however, evidence of a broader anti-government coalition remains limited.

Why would former enemies work together?

The most striking aspect of the Tsimdo debate is the suggestion that Eritrean actors and the TPLF may be finding common ground. For decades, the two sides were bitter enemies. Their rivalry shaped much of the Horn of Africa’s politics and culminated in the Ethiopia-Eritrea border war. More recently, Eritrean forces fought alongside Ethiopian federal troops against the TPLF during the Tigray war.

The idea that they could now be exploring areas of cooperation wouldonce have seemed far-fetched.

Mulugeta points to the unfinished business of the Pretoria Agreement.

“Some say the Tigrayans are left with few options,” he tells The AfricaReport. “Addis Ababa has not abided by the ink it signed in Pretoria. Morethan a million displaced people have not returned home. Large parts ofTigray remain under occupation.”

Tigray is not in a position to wage war against thefederal government

For William Davison, founder of Ethiopia Insight and former seniorEthiopia analyst at the International Crisis Group, a similar logic is atwork, saying the TPLF and Tigrayans found themselves “very isolated”during the 2020-2022 war.

“They don’t want to end up in that position again, surrounded by Amharamilitias, Eritrean enemies and the federal government.”

The Abiy-Isaias fallout

The changing relationship between Addis Ababa and Asmara is anotherpiece of the puzzle. When Abiy and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerkisigned a historic peace deal in 2018, they appeared politically aligned.Today, relations are far more strained, with differences over the PretoriaAgreement, regional security and Ethiopia’s push for sea access creatingfresh tensions.

That deterioration, says Davison, helps explain Eritrea’s alleged interest incultivating ties with actors opposed to Addis Ababa.

“President Isaias and Prime Minister Abiy have fallen out significantlysince the war,” he says. “Eritrea is taking a ‘my enemy’s enemy approach.”

Any cooperation, he argues, is likely to be tactical rather than strategic.

“It looks like an opportunistic thing from the Eritrean side to causeproblems for Addis and potentially create some sort of security buffer,”Davison says, noting that Tigray is the factor between Eritrea and theEthiopian military.

What Tsimdo reveals about Pretoria

Perhaps the most important thing about Tsimdo is what it says about thestate of the Pretoria Agreement. “For me, Tigray is already at war,” saysMulugeta. “The guns are not being fired, but the war has continued indifferent forms.”

Addis Ababa has not abided by the ink it signed inPretoria. More than a million displaced peoplehave not returned home. Large parts of Tigrayremain under occupation

He argues that while the Pretoria Agreement ended large-scale fighting,many of the issues that fuelled the conflict remain unresolved.

“Pretoria stopped the shooting, but it didn’t stop the displacement ofpeople,” he says. “It didn’t remove the forces occupying Tigray and it didn’t normalise life.”

Against that backdrop, Mulugeta dismisses suggestions that TPLF leaders are preparing to launch a major offensive against Addis Ababa. “Tigray is not in a position to wage war against the federal government.”

Far from preparing for a new conflict, he argues, the region is still grappling with the consequences of the last one. Large numbers of young people continue to leave, displaced families remain unable to return home and many of the grievances that shaped the war remain unresolved.ʻ ʼ 

Mulugeta also questions the timing of the warnings. Rather, he sees themas part of a strategy aimed at preserving the status quo and reducing diplomatic pressure on the government.

The danger, he argues, is that constant warnings of war could becomeself-fulfilling by increasing tensions and provoking the very confrontationall sides claim they want to avoid.

Independent researcher Rene Lefort believed recent rhetoric from Addis Ababa reflects just how far relations between the federal government and the TPLF have deteriorated.

“The last declaration of Berhanu Jula confirms that relations with the TPLF have been completely severed, not only for its present actions, but also for the past ones,” Lefort wrote on X. “It is hard to imagine how abridge could still be built between the two protagonists to start a true discussion.”

Davison says the consequences are already visible in Tigrayan politics.

“Most of the cooperative and friendly Tigrayan leaders are now in Addis Ababa,” he says. “Those who hold power in Mekelle are a particular segment of the TPLF and their allies, and relations with the federal government have become increasingly terrible.”

That, Davison adds, is why Tsimdo may be less important than theanxieties it reflects.

“It’s much more a reflection of the wider tensions between Ethiopia,Eritrea and various domestic actors than a coherent alliance,” he says. 

Sheriff Bojang Jnr