By Dereje T. Asefa, P.hD,
Leader of Cooperation platform for Norwegian – Tigrayans and Secretary of Union of Tigrayans in Europe
Tigray stands at another decisive moment in its history. The choices made during the coming months could determine whether the region moves toward stability, democratic governance, and recovery, or returns to a cycle of political confrontation, insecurity, and prolonged humanitarian suffering.
A caretaker administration has been established with a limited mandate to restore security, rebuild institutions, facilitate the return of displaced people, support disarmament, and rehabilitation efforts, and prepare the conditions necessary for credible regional elections. By design, its role is temporary to create the minimum conditions required to conduct credible elections without any mandate to decide on Tigray’s long-term political future.
Yet some political actors continue to advocate for another transitional arrangement. Such proposals are difficult to justify under current circumstances. Tigray’s current situation is characterized by insecurity, weakened institutions, political fragmentation, large-scale displacement, large-scale displacemen, worsening hunger and the continued presence of armed groups operating outside accountable civilian structures as guerrilla fighters. Creating another transitional government is a waste of time and risks extending the political and security uncertainty.
The Need for democratic reform
The most important challenge facing Tigray today is not the creation of another transitional administration, but the restoration of stability that can pave the way for democratic reform and strategic leadership
The era of the TPLF as the dominant force in Tigrayan and Ethiopian politics has effectively ended. There are of course individuals who continue to identify themselves with the TPLF political ideas. They should be free to express their views, as it is their constitutional right to advocate without fear of collective punishment as long as they are determined to exercise their right with peaceful strategies rather than military imposition. However, the TPLF decision to return to armed struggle and guerrilla warfare is contradictory to any of their effort to regain political legitimacy through democratic means. Recent remarks by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio referring TPLF as ‘separatist’ engaged in ‘terrorist attacks’ illustrate the reputational costs associated with renewed armed struggle.
With these developments the central political question facing Tigray should not be how to include or restore the hegemonic institutions of the past, but how to build legitimate, democratic, and accountable governance for the future. Efforts to revive former power arrangements risk diverting attention from the urgent tasks of stabilization, reconstruction, and democratic preparation for a better future.
Tigray needs stability and democratic governance with stronger institutionalism in which no political organization can claim ownership of the state, the security forces, or the people themselves.
Stabilization must precede political competition.
Democratic reform requires a functioning institution, public security, freedom of political participation and confidence that disputes can be resolved peacefully. None of these conditions can currently be taken for granted in Tigray. Recent reports continue to highlight security challenges due to the risks posed by armed actors operating beyond effective civilian oversight as guerrilla fighters. In such an environment, launching another transitional administration could create competing centres of authority, encourage rival groups to defend political positions through force and postpone elections indefinitely.
The caretaker administration should be viewed primarily as an emergency stabilization mechanism rather than a new political project. Its legitimacy derives from its temporary and limited character. Success should be measured not by how long it remains in office, but by whether it can restore a minimum level of order and transfer power to an elected government within the agreed time limit. A strengthened security command structure is also necessary to prevent further fragmentation. However, such arrangements must remain accountable to the rule of law and subject to civilian oversight.
Trust must be earned through results.
Stability cannot be achieved through security measures and political arrangements alone. If trust is to emerge among Tigrayans and if the caretaker administration is to gain legitimacy, people must see meaningful improvements in their daily lives.
This is where both the caretaker administration and the federal government face their most important test. Ordinary citizens continue to ask straightforward questions such as why have federal budget allocations not fully translated into operational public services and government employees still not received regular salaries? Communities affected by drought still require urgent humanitarian assistance that has yet to reach those in need.
Hospitals and health centres need medicines, medical equipment, and essential supplies. A clear, transparent, and operational plan for the return and reintegration of displaced persons remains absent. While some schools have reopened, regular education is not being delivered at the scale required across the region. Citizens have been told to be patient and to give the caretaker administration time to deliver results. That is a reasonable argument as institutional recovery might take time after years of war and destruction. Yet patience is limited. A population that has endured war, displacement, and immense human suffering expects to see measurable progresses faster if trust is to be built and a smooth transition is to emerge. A sluggish approach to address questions raised by the people of Tigray will lead to public frustration eroding the confidence towards the caretaker administration.
The federal government must also ensure that all security operations are conducted with the utmost regard for civilian protection. Lessons from the 2020-2022 war demonstrate that civilians should be protected through strict adherence to international humanitarian law, effective command responsibility, and transparent operational procedures. When civilian casualties or other forms of collateral damage occur, prompt, independent, and credible investigations must follow. Protecting civilians is not only a legal obligation but also an essential condition for rebuilding public trust and achieving lasting stability.
Political parties should engage and fight for a level electoral playing field.
Alternative political parties should engage constructively with the caretaker administration without becoming subordinate to it. Their role is to represent citizens, monitor government performance, develop alternative policies, and help create the conditions necessary for peaceful elections. They should retain the right to criticize failures, expose abuses, and present their alternative visions for Tigray’s future through democratic public debate and election campaigns in the coming months to demonstrate credibility, develop policy platforms and earn the confidence of voters.
Tigray’s future and Ethiopia
There is still a strong sentiment in many Tigrayans for an independent Tigray. Given the scale of suffering experienced during the conflict, such aspirations are understandable and legitimate. Under the current regional conditions, Tigrayans should unfortunately realize that there are no favorable diplomatic, economic and security conditions for that. The alternative is then to regain back the bargaining power and strengthen its constitutional, political, and economic position within the Ethiopia federal system as a short and midterm strategy.
This requires a strategic leadership capable of understanding and capitalizing on the emerging regional dynamics that might create golden opportunities to secure Tigray’s vital interests. Ethiopia’s search for a reliable sea access for economic and security reasons could reshape relationships across the Horn of Africa. Tigray should approach such developments with caution and can engage while demanding a genuine constitutional order from the federal government that secures regional autonomy, resource allocation, resource utilization, return of IDPs, and address the prevailing socio-economic challenges.
Engagement for stability is different from acceptance of impunity.
Support for stabilization should never be interpreted as acceptance of impunity. The international investigations have documented the atrocity crimes committed during the conflict, including mass killings, sexual violence, forced displacement, starvation, and arbitrary detention. They have also concluded that multiple actors committed serious crimes and that meaningful accountability remains limited. The preservation of evidence, the protection of survivors and continued international scrutiny therefore remain essential. Justice may take years, but opportunities for justice can disappear quickly if evidence is lost, witnesses are intimidated or political attention fades. Stable institutions are necessary to pursue accountability effectively, while credible accountability is necessary to build lasting peace. Neither objective can succeed without the other.
Suggestions for the way forward
Tigray does not need another transitional government. It does not need either the resurrection of a political hegemony that no longer corresponds to present realities.
The coming months will determine whether Tigray begins the difficult transition from military politics to democratic politics. Success will not be measured by declarations, new transitional formulas, or competing claims to legitimacy. It will be measured by security, functioning institutions, credible elections, and tangible improvements in the lives of ordinary citizens. That is the test facing not only the caretaker administration and the federal government, but also alternative political parties, civic organizations, religious leaders, professional associations, the diaspora, and other stakeholders in Tigray’s future. Each has a responsibility to contribute to stability, democratic competition, institutional recovery, and reconciliation. Ultimately, a stable and politically confident Tigray can only be built through a shared commitment to democratic legitimacy, accountable governance, and the welfare of its people.
