EEPA SITUATION REPORT – HORN OF AFRICA – No. 244 – 19 July 2022

Situation in Ethiopia (per 19 July)

Insecurity Insight has released a report on the number of incidents in Ethiopia, and the likelihood of conflict in the country. It says that conflict has increased in Oromia and Amhara, but decreased to levels similar to Benishangul/Gumuz in Tigray.
It predicts that conflict will continue in Afar, Amhara, and Oromia in the coming months, and clashes might reoccur between Ethiopia and Sudan ” within the next three months.”
Insecurity Insight adds that “A series of cyber-attacks over the past nine months have raised concerns over whether the GERD will be able to achieve planned electricity output.”
According to Egyptian media reports, Ethiopia has reportedly begun the third phase of filling the GERD Dam. They denounced unresolved disputes over the management of the dam between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia.
Gamal Bayoumi, Egypt’s former deputy foreign minister, said the issue was more political than technical, with Ethiopia unwilling to agree on the filling and operation of the GERD.
The creditor committee set up to monitor Ethiopia’s debt restructuring request met to discuss a potential reorganisation on 18 July. Ethiopia requested it in February 2021, but the committee has not been able to meet since then due to the conflict.
Ethiopian officials were not invited to the meeting. A senior Ethiopian finance ministry official calls on the committee to move beyond discussions and come up with an agenda.

The International Rescue Committee (IRC) has included for the first time a crisis alert for East Africa in its annual Emergency Watchlist. The IRC is particularly concerned about the escalating famine in Somalia. It denounces the negligence of the international community.
The IRC says the different crises impacting Ethiopia and Somalia has put them in the top ten countries of concern of its 2022 Emergency Watchlist. The number of people suffering from hunger is expected to exceed 20 million by September 2022, almost twice as many as at the end of 2021.
The Scottish Government will provide £250,000 in aid grants to overcome the hunger crisis. The money is split between Christian Aid in Ethiopia and Islamic Relief in Somalia. Both work to provide supplementary feeding and emergency response to the drought.
The AU stressed the importance of ending dependence on external food imports at the AU Executive Council session. Several delegations urged nations to increase their agricultural productivity to combat the hunger crisis and enable sustainable growth on the continent.
AU chairperson, Macky Sall, told reporters that leaders agreed to update the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area.

An opinion article by Prof. Jan Nyssen in La Libre Belgique discusses a pact between the Ethiopian government, Eritrea, and Amhara leaders in 2021, to make Tigray like Biafra, a region found in Nigeria starved due to siege by its government in the late 1960s.
The article mentions how a plan to ‘eradicate’ the Tigrayans, which killed nearly half a million people, and starved 5.9 million, was announced officially on different state funded platforms.
The writer accused António Guterres of turning a blind eye as war crimes unfolded in Tigray. He criticised faulty aid agencies’ announcements inflating the extent of the aid provided to Tigray.
The Addis Insight reported that World marathon champion Gotytom Gebreslase said in an interview that she was happy with the victory, but also had “mixed emotions” because she couldn’t get in touch with her parents that live in Tigray.

Sudanese protesters accuse the military of fuelling tribal violence in the Blue Nile State by using excessive and extreme violence. Recent clashes have left more than 79 dead and 199 injured.
Pro-democracy groups returned to the streets of Khartoum on 17 July, blaming the army for failing to protect civilians.
A South Sudanese army general says that relations with Sudan remain “calm and stable”. He welcomes the free movement of goods and people thanks to political will on both sides.
US House of Representatives approved a draft resolution 417 to 7 condemning the military coup in Sudan and expressing solidarity with the Sudanese people. The draft was sent to the Senate.
The draft demands the military lift the state of emergency, release all those detained in the coup and return to the path of democratic transition.

UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell stated that conflicts and droughts have a severe impact on children at an audience on the state of food security. She highlights that children cannot receive ordinary food in their condition, but urgently need therapeutic feeding and care.