The people of Tigray have already paid an extraordinary price in lives, homes, livelihoods, education and trust in institutions meant to protect them. They do not need another war.

By Samson Lebassi

The war in Tigray ended on paper in November 2022. For many of the region’s civilians, however, the violence never truly ended. It only changed its form.

The battlefield gave way to displacement camps. Military offensives were replaced by political paralysis. The destruction of hospitals and schools was followed by the collapse of public services. The mass atrocities of war were followed by impunity. And, in 2026, the fragile peace established by the Pretoria Agreement is again being threatened by escalating tensions between Ethiopia’s federal government and Tigray’s political and security authorities. The warning signs are unmistakable.

In Western Tigray, ethnic Tigrayans continue to face what Human Rights Watch describes as arbitrary detention, severe restrictions on movement and employment, and discriminatory barriers to accessing services and documentation. Hundreds of thousands of Tigrayans expelled during the 2020–2022 conflict remain displaced, unable to return to their homes in conditions that are safe, voluntary and dignified.

Inside Tigray, Human Rights Watch has documented the forcible recruitment of civilians, including children as young as 15, by Tigrayan authorities and forces since at least April 2026. The organisation describes abductions, mass roundups, arbitrary detention and pressure placed on families to surrender relatives for military service.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian consequences of the post-war crisis are deepening. Displaced people remain in precarious conditions. Food and medicines are inadequate. Schools and health facilities struggle to function. Public institutions face severe financial constraints. Young people are leaving the region in search of safety and a future.

The danger is not merely that Tigray remains poor or politically unstable. The danger is that a society already devastated by one of the world’s most destructive wars is being pushed once again towards militarisation, while the international community watches from a distance.

The peace agreement stopped the war. It did not resolve the conflict.

The Pretoria Agreement was an essential achievement. It ended the large-scale armed conflict between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a war that produced mass atrocities and an extraordinary humanitarian catastrophe. But a ceasefire is not the same as peace.

The agreement left unresolved some of the most politically explosive questions at the heart of the conflict: the status of Western Tigray; the return of displaced people; the withdrawal of forces; the future political relationship between Tigray and the federal government; the reintegration of former combatants; and accountability for grave crimes committed by all sides. The result has been a dangerous form of post-war limbo.

A recent assessment by the Ceasefire Centre for Civilian Rights argues that the Pretoria Agreement has failed to deliver a meaningful “peace dividend” for Tigray. The organisation points to the continuing displacement crisis, inadequate public services, the alleged withholding or under-allocation of federal resources, weak transitional justice and the continuing political marginalisation of the region.

The report also describes deaths in displacement camps that have been attributed to shortages of food and medication and warns that the absence of meaningful accountability is helping to preserve the conditions that produced the original conflict.

This is the central failure of the post-war period: the international community helped end the fighting but did not build a sufficiently robust system to ensure that the peace would survive. The result is a peace without justice, security without trust and a ceasefire without a durable political settlement.

Western Tigray: the unresolved wound

No discussion of Tigray’s future can avoid Western Tigray. The territory remains one of the most dangerous unresolved questions in Ethiopia. It is claimed by both Tigray and Amhara authorities and remains deeply associated with the mass displacement and alleged ethnic cleansing of Tigrayan civilians during the war. However, under the current constitution, it is part of Tigray.

In its April 2026 report, Human Rights Watch documented continuing persecution of ethnic Tigrayans in Western Tigray. The organisation reported arbitrary detention, restrictions on movement and employment, denial of identification documents and barriers to access to essential services.

After interviewing 40 people in early 2026, Human Rights Watch reported that many Tigrayan residents in Western Tigray could not move freely, work normally, access their property or obtain documentation. Under such conditions, return cannot be safe, voluntary or durable; it risks making displacement a permanent instrument of political control.

The Ethiopian federal government must ensure safe and dignified returns and hold perpetrators accountable, while Tigrayan authorities must confront the political and security realities surrounding the return of displaced people. Western Tigray is not merely a territorial dispute, it is a human rights emergency.

The new abuse inside Tigray: coercion in the name of security

The abuses documented by Human Rights Watch inside Tigray are equally disturbing. In July 2026, the organisation reported that Tigrayan authorities and forces had forcibly recruited civilians, including children as young as 15. The investigation, based on remote interviews with 18 people, documented six cases of forced recruitment and described the abduction of civilians from streets, workplaces, homes and gold-mining sites.

Some people were reportedly detained in administrative offices, police stations and schools before being transferred to military camps. Families were allegedly pressured to surrender relatives. In some cases, relatives who refused were themselves detained. These allegations should not be minimised because they are committed by actors who claim to represent a population that has suffered grave abuses.

The forced recruitment of civilians is a violation of fundamental human rights. The recruitment or use of children in armed conflict is prohibited under international law. The forced recruitment of children under 15 constitutes a war crime. The principle is simple: a population cannot be protected by destroying the rights of the people it claims to protect.

The TPLF and Tigrayan authorities have a responsibility to end forced recruitment, release civilians and children recruited against their will, and ensure that no family is punished for refusing to surrender a relative. Human Rights Watch has also called for the withdrawal of provisions that threaten penalties or collective punishment against those who evade military service. This is not a minor political dispute. It is a direct question of civilian protection.

A generation of children is paying the price

The most enduring consequences of the Tigray conflict may be borne by children who never chose the war. The conflict interrupted the education of millions of children across northern Ethiopia. Schools were damaged or destroyed. Some were occupied by displaced families. Teachers were displaced. Children lost years of education during the most important stages of their development.

UNICEF reported in June 2026 that the northern conflict forced millions of children out of school and left many classrooms in ruins. Although a few schools have gradually being rehabilitated, the educational consequences of the war will last for years. A child who misses several years of education does not simply “catch up” when a classroom reopens.

The damage may include lost literacy, reduced employment prospects, increased exposure to child marriage and exploitation, psychological trauma and permanent exclusion from opportunities. Education is therefore not a secondary humanitarian concern. It is a fundamental human right and one of the most important instruments of post-war recovery.

The crisis is particularly severe when schools cannot function because teachers are unpaid, local budgets are inadequate, classrooms lack basic materials or children arrive hungry. A society cannot rebuild itself while its teachers are unable to work, its schools cannot operate and its children are forced to choose between education and survival.

The slow collapse of civilian life

The humanitarian crisis in Tigray extends far beyond food insecurity. War, displacement, political conflict and economic collapse have weakened the systems essential to civilian life. Hospitals lack supplies, staff, electricity, transport and fuel; schools lack teachers, salaries, buildings and materials; and public institutions and families struggle without adequate budgets, food, water, shelter and livelihoods. When these systems fail together, the result is not merely poverty—it is a human rights crisis.

UNICEF’s 2026 Ethiopia humanitarian appeal warns that malnutrition has worsened amid the combined effects of conflict and climate shocks. It reports that nutrition assessments in Tigray found global acute malnutrition rates above the emergency threshold, including a proxy rate of 19.8 per cent in four Tigrayan woredas. The same appeal describes severe disruption to education, growing protection risks and continuing gender-based violence in conflict-affected and displacement settings.

The World Health Organization has likewise warned that conflict, displacement, food insecurity, disease outbreaks and fragile health systems are converging across the Horn of Africa, with children under five, pregnant and breastfeeding women and displaced people particularly vulnerable. These statistics describe a humanitarian emergency. But they also describe a political failure.

Food, healthcare, education and basic public services must never become instruments in a political struggle between Addis Ababa and Mekelle. The federal government has obligations to citizens living in Tigray. Tigrayan authorities have obligations to the people they govern. Neither side can claim to be defending civilians while civilians are denied basic security, food, education, healthcare or freedom from coercion.

Women and girls remain exposed to the consequences of war

Women and girls in Tigray continue to live with the consequences of the conflict’s widespread sexual violence. The war produced extensive allegations of rape, gang rape, sexual slavery and other forms of sexual violence. The consequences did not end with the ceasefire.

Survivors continue to face trauma, stigma, medical needs and economic insecurity. Many women are also responsible for caring for children and relatives in conditions of displacement and extreme poverty. A renewed war would place women and girls at immediate risk of further sexual violence, displacement and exploitation. The failure to provide adequate services to survivors is therefore not only a humanitarian failure. It is a failure of justice. Any credible peace process must place survivors at its centre.

The youth exodus is a warning

The departure of young people from Tigray should be understood as one of the clearest indicators of the region’s crisis. Young people leave when they see no future. They leave when education has been interrupted, employment has collapsed, public institutions cannot provide security and the possibility of renewed military mobilisation hangs over their lives.

The forced recruitment campaign documented by Human Rights Watch has deepened this fear. The organisation reported that some civilians were hiding, changing locations or leaving the region to evade recruitment. One young man reportedly left Tigray for Addis Ababa, leaving behind his pregnant wife because he could not afford to bring her.

This is what a society being emptied looks like. The danger is not simply that Tigray loses its young population. It is that the region loses the generation that should be rebuilding it. A post-war society cannot recover if its young people are forced to choose between exile and military mobilisation.

Neither side has the right to claim moral immunity

The human rights crisis in Tigray cannot be understood through a simplistic narrative in which one side is permanently the victim and the other permanently the perpetrator.

The Ethiopian federal government and forces aligned with it bear responsibility for grave violations committed during the war and for continuing concerns, including the persecution and displacement of Tigrayans in Western Tigray.

The TPLF and Tigrayan authorities, however, cannot invoke the suffering of Tigrayans as a licence to violate the rights of Tigrayans. The allegations of forced recruitment, the detention of civilians and the recruitment of children must be investigated and stopped. Human rights are not conditional. They do not depend on whether the perpetrator is a federal soldier, a regional official, a militia member or a Tigrayan fighter. A genuine human rights framework must apply to everyone. This is precisely why accountability is indispensable. Without accountability, every side is encouraged to believe that its own violence is justified by the violence of the other. That is how cycles of war reproduce themselves.

The world is once again being warned

The international community cannot claim that the deterioration was unforeseeable. In February 2026, the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect and other civil society organisations warned that Ethiopia was at risk of renewed large-scale conflict and mass atrocities.

The statement cited reports of heavy weapons use, drone strikes and arbitrary detention and warned that political space for de-escalation was shrinking. It called for sustained international engagement, independent human rights monitoring, accountability and unhindered humanitarian access.

The International Crisis Group has also warned about the risks of renewed conflict in Ethiopia, particularly in the context of unresolved tensions between the federal government and regional forces. The central lesson of Ethiopia’s recent history is that crises that appear politically manageable can become catastrophes with extraordinary speed. The international community should not wait for a formal declaration of war.

Washington and Brussels must move from concern to leverage

The United States and the European Union possess significant diplomatic, economic and political influence in Ethiopia, and must now use it to prevent a renewed war in Tigray.

Washington and Brussels should launch an urgent diplomatic initiative involving the Ethiopian federal government, Tigrayan authorities, the African Union and other regional actors. They should demand an immediate end to forced recruitment, including the recruitment of children, ensure independent monitoring of human rights abuses and protect displaced Tigrayans and civilians in Western Tigray.

Humanitarian assistance must be shielded from political manipulation, with food, medicine, fuel and other necessities reaching civilians without obstruction. International support should prioritise rebuilding schools, healthcare and essential civilian institutions, while credible investigations into violations committed by all parties must ensure that accountability is not selective.

Those who obstruct peace, persecute civilians or prepare for renewed atrocities must face consequences. Diplomatic statements alone have failed. The question is no longer whether the international community knows what is happening, but whether it is willing to use its influence before the next catastrophe.

Tigray cannot survive another war

The people of Tigray have already paid an extraordinary price in lives, homes, livelihoods, education and trust in institutions meant to protect them. They do not need another war; they need food, medicine, functioning schools, paid teachers, supplied hospitals, safe and voluntary returns for the displaced, justice and the opportunity for young people to build a future at home. Above all, political leaders must understand that civilians are not military resources.

The federal government cannot indefinitely postpone Tigray’s unresolved issues, while Tigrayan authorities cannot respond to insecurity by coercing civilians into military service. Both sides must understand that another war will not restore the past, it will destroy what remains.

The Pretoria Agreement must not be treated as a completed peace process simply because large-scale fighting stopped. Peace requires implementation, accountability, the restoration of civilian life and protection from those claiming to act in the people’s name.

Tigray remains suspended between war and recovery, with unresolved displacement, persecution, forced recruitment, children at risk, food insecurity, weakened healthcare, disrupted education and a generation of young people searching for a future elsewhere.

The United States and the European Union must act now, not after another offensive or massacre. International engagement must prevent atrocities, not merely condemn them afterwards. For Tigray, the time for prevention is now.

Professional Profile:

The author is a former academic at Ethiopian universities and is currently a business leader working for a major multinational company, with business leadership experience in Europe, East Africa, and Southern Africa. In parallel, he is a human-rights advocate and a paying member of several human-rights organisations, including Amnesty International.

The views expressed in this article are strictly personal and do not, in any way, represent the views of the company for which the author works or any organisation of which he is a member. The author can be reached at samson.h.lebassi@gmail.com