The Conflict Between the TPLF and the Ethiopian Government Has the Potential to Escalate beyond the Country’s Borders

Source: Gerrit Kurtz, SWP Comment 2026/C 29, 22.07.2026

Tensions between Addis Ababa and the Tigray Region are gradually mounting. Mis­calculations could even trigger another large-scale war, although the parties involved may not directly seek one. Since the war in northern Ethiopia ended in November 2022, no new, stable political order has emerged. Tigray remains suspended between war and peace. Responsibility for this lies with both the Ethiopian government and its partner in peace, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Having lost power in the national government in 2018, the TPLF has yet to find a new role for itself; in­stead, it has been marked by internal power struggles and characterised by authoritarian tendencies. Conversely, the Ethiopian government has not done enough to facilitate the return of internally displaced persons and restore Tigray’s territorial integrity. A renewed outbreak of hostilities could draw in Eritrea, Sudan and other regional actors. Germany and the European Union (EU) should firmly commit to crisis prevention in order to avoid further escalation in the already tense Red Sea region.

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Tigray Region in the Grey Zone between War and PeaceDownload