“The emerging picture is therefore not simply one of a strengthening alliance, but of escalating violence alongside a fragmented and potentially unstable coalition of armed groups.”
Dr Jalale Gettachew Birru, East Africa Senior Analyst at ACLED, said:
“Despite widespread reporting of a new seven-group anti-government alliance, ACLED’s monitoring shows a much more fragmented picture on the ground. Only three of the seven groups are currently involved in the northern fighting, while divisions within Fano militias — particularly over cooperation with the TPLF — continue to complicate the idea of a unified front. On 26 and 27 September, Fano militias supporting the AFNM leader clashed with another Fano militia named Belay Zeleke Command in South Gonder zone, Amhara, over disagreement on collaborating with the TPLF.
“At the same time, the conflict itself is intensifying. MSF reported more than 700 war-wounded patients across Southern and North-Western Tigray zones in Tigray between 22 and 25 September, while around 161 people were evacuated from Tigray to Afar on 28 September.
The emerging picture is therefore not simply one of a strengthening alliance, but of escalating violence alongside a fragmented and potentially unstable coalition of armed groups.”
Register now for an in depth webinar tomorrow, 30 September, with Dr Jalale Gettachew Birru. For an interview or further questions please email press@acleddata.com.
