Martin,

I forwarded your article on Eritrea to several ex-Peace Corps volunteers who spent two years with me there between 1962-64. Naturally, we’ve spent the rest of our lives tracking events in Eritrea more closely than average American citizens. Here is one response out of several that I received of a similar nature:

Hi John, I finally got around to reading the article you forwarded. If there were only some meat in Plaut’s suggestions, we’d all be the better for it. We can only dream. What a shame. Thanks so much for sending… Warmest regards, Gloria

I haven’t discussed her note with her, but I feel that I owe both you and Gloria some thoughts about the “meat” that is missing from your analysis.

First, you proceed from the assumption that the rift between pro-government and anti-government factions within Eritrea can be breached. Our experience over the past 15 years with diaspora Eritreans suggests otherwise. Too many mysterious deaths, imprisonments and ransoms imposed by the Isaias Afeworki government place this impasse in the same category as Ukraine or Kashmir; the camps are irreconcilably opposed to each other. In Eritrea, the only solution is regime change, preferably through another referendum and adoption of a dormant (but excellent) constitution. This will probably not happen until Isaias dies, and even then, more blood is likely to be shed.

Your second assumption is that the similarity between Eritrean and Ethiopian cultures holds out hope for reconciliation. This is an outsider’s perspective; seen from within, Eritrean culture is distinctly different from Ethiopia, primarily due to the democratic institutions dominant in Eritrea during the 1940s and 50s, contrasted with the autocratic regimes imposed on Eritrea by Haile Selassie and the Dergue. For the past half-century, Eritreans have treasured their hard-won independence from Ethiopia; they are not likely exchange it for a more relaxed border policy. Even under Isaias, the Eritrean citizens seem to value education, meritocracy and self-reliance more than Ethiopians, who are steeped in a culture of patronage and feudal loyalties.

Your most persuasive arguments were economic; but again (alas) it is difficult to imagine a scenario where the two countries can become economically inter-dependent. The Europeans and Americans have made Djibouti a viable port for Ethiopian exports, rendering Massawa and Assab (better natural harbors) useless to both Ethiopia and Eritrea. Both countries are on the verge of starvation due to regional climate change. The Chinese seem to be ready to stimulate the Ethiopian economy while the U.S. and E.U. are oblivious to the lost opportunities in Africa. Eritrea has few natural resources to exploit. Eritrea’s strongest asset was human capital—cadres of physicians, professors and entrepreneurs who took their earliest chance to emigrate, and now reside in America and Europe, primarily. When Isaias dies, the Eritrean diaspora will surely make a move toward peaceful, democratic regime change. No Western nation seems to be supporting these groups in the present, nor are they doing anything to thwart an illegitimate succession that will surely try to take over Eritrea when Isaias is gone.

I think I speak for my friends when I suggest to you that your interest in Eritrea is appreciated, but unrealistic. During several trips back to Eritrea in the 1990s, each of us found a nation poised on the brink of astounding, positive change. The 2000 border war and Isaias’ mental instability and cruelty ruined all that. Now, the most painful reality to endure is that the potential for Eritrea to become a beacon for Africa still exists…..and no one (outside the Eritrean diaspora) seems to care.

Please continue to write about Eritrea’s ongoing tragedy, but try to ground your observations with logic and evidence. False hopes are worse than no hope at all.

Respectfully,

John C. Rude Pasadena, CA