Six unpredictable months; six unpredictiable outcomes
The next six months are likely to be the most unpredictable in recent times.
By February 2019 any or all of the following may happen:
1. The Conservative Party might split into pro and anti-European factions. Possible, but seems unlikely. Tories have a powerful zest for power.
2. The Labour Party might split into pro and anti-Corbyn factions, echoing the pro and anti-European split facing the Tories. Perhaps more likely; Labour is used to being out of power.
3. Theresa May could succeed or fail in getting a soft-ish Brexit through Parliament. Seems unlikely, but could just scrape through.
4. Theresa May could be replaced at leader of the Tory Party by a more hardline Brexiteer. Certainly possible, but who? Boris? Gove? Neither make attractive leaders.
5. If the Tories can’t get a version of Brexit through Parliament either because it is too soft or too hard for one or other of their factions, Theresa May might have to call an election. Looks unlikely at present, since no-one can predict the outcome. But it could happen. Corbyn in 10 Downing Street? Unlikely but possible.
6. A People’s Vote or Second Referendum. Well, if Parliament can’t make up its mind on Brexit, then this might be an alternative to an election. Seems unlikely but possible.
Finally, will we leave the EU in March 2019 as scheduled? Probably, but not certain.
All one can say is that uncertainty rules!