Peace negotiations (per 14 November)

  • On 12 November, the peace talks in Nairobi resulted in an agreement on the modalities of implementation on the peace agreement. The parties mentioned in the agreement are the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.
  • The agreement sets out a timeline on disarmament of ‘Tigray Armed Combatants’.
  • Both delegations agreed that disarmament would only start following the “withdrawal of foreign and non-ENDF forces from the region” (point 2.1/D of the declaration).
  • The agreement sets out: orientation of commanders of their respective forces to take place by 22 November, subsequent disengagement over a 4-day period, then federal forces taking over responsibility and the setting up of a committee for supervision of disarmament of light weapons.
  • The Nairobi agreement also sets out items for protection of civilians, delivery of aid, monitoring and verification and ‘responsible use of media’. Safety of civilians will fall to federal security forces.
  • The government of Tigray issued a statement saying that it will work to quickly implement the peace agreement in such a way that it ensures the existence of and protects the interests of the people of Tigray.
  • It stated that Tigray signed the peace agreement because it aims to uphold the constitution, stop the “ongoing genocidal war” and halt internal displacement and overall destruction in Tigray’s people.
  • The statement mentioned that the peace delegation of Tigray in South Africa was appointed by the Government of Tigray but not by the TPLF and it stated that TPLF does not have combatants.
  • The statement also indicated that it is only the people of Tigray that could change the government of Tigray and that it will work to amend the terms contradicting this.
  • Field Marshal Berhanu Jula, Chief of Staff of ENDF, stated that there are some on both sides who do not accept the agreement and that pro-peace forces will ultimately win.
  • The Field Marshal stated that the suffering and destruction of Tigray has to stop.
  • In a statement on 10 November, Tigray Independence Party stated it does not believe the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement will enable the people of Tigray to meet the objectives of their struggle.
  • The party criticised TPLF for signing the agreement without undertaking broader consultation with other parties and the people of Tigray.

Situation in Tigray (per 14 November)

  • Sources state that Eritrean forces do not show signs of leaving Tigray. This weekend, heavy ammunition attacks on Tigray are reported to have intensified.
  • The Ethiopian National Disaster Risk Management Commission announced that all humanitarian corridors into Tigray have been opened. However, international aid organisations indicated over the weekend that the convoys were still waiting for permission from the authorities to enter.
  • Sources state that ENDF and federal police are collaborating in Shire to arrest “a significant” amount of people; the ENDF has also been reported as going house to house to loot in Shire and Axum.
  • Sources state that the Eritrean forces are continuing to commit extrajudicial killings and have been seen looting especially in Sheraro.

Situation in Ethiopia (per 14 November)

  • Sources state that on 11 November, OLA fighters attacked Pyramid Hotel in Bishoftu in which Ethiopian airforce’s drone operators and technicians were reportedly staying.
  • Addis standard reported that at least 18 civilians were killed and several others injured during border clashes between militias of the Afar and Somali regions on 9 November.
  • An airstrike on 9 November in the town of Mendi, in Mana Sibu district of West Wallaga zone in Oromia regional state killed around 20, according to an eyewitness, reports Addis Standard.
  • UN OCHA states that conflict and drought are heavily impacting southern and western parts of Oromia. They estimate that, as of 31 October, 740.000 people are internally displaced and 3.5 million people affected.
  • The Ethiopian Evangelical Church condemns the “indiscriminate killing” of some of its members at Muleta Gela congregation in the Oromia regional state, accusing federal forces of failing to prevent the killings and of properly investigating them.

Regional Situation (per 14 November)

  • President Hassan Sheikh of Somalia appointed Major Mubarak Abdiqani Muse as the Chief of Naval Intelligence of the country. The major was one of the officers trained in Eritrea and is still in Asmara.
  • Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud made a visit to Asmara on 10 November to meet with President Isaias Afwerki to discuss issues of common concern.
  • Director of Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency, Mahad Salad, visited the Ethiopian Information Network Security Administration. Both parties reaffirmed their desire to cooperate.
  • The Sudanese Forces for Freedom and Change have signed a political declaration supplementing the draft transitional constitution. It includes principles reaffirming civilian government, justice, economic and security reforms and points regarding election preparation, says the Sudan Tribune.
  • According to the Sudan Tribune 24 people have died in a new wave of tribal violence in central Darfur; the regional government has declared a state of emergency lasting a month.

Links of interest

Federal, Tigray military commanders to form joint committee to elaborate DDR

The People & Government of Tigrai will ensure the implementation of the agreement

Statement of Tigray Independence Party

Twitter: Redwan Hussien on Declaration of Executive plan of the Pretoria peace agreement

Commission announces all corridors leading to Tigray region are open for humanitarian aid

Ethiopia govt says aid flowing to Tigray but rebels deny

More than a dozen civilians killed following latest clashes between Afar, Somali regions militias near border

More airstrikes kill dozens in Mendi, West Wollega; mounting civilian casualties draw outcry

Ethiopia: Access Snapshot, Oromia region (south-west) (As of 31 October 2022)

Evangelical Church condemns killing of dozens of its worshipers in East, West Wollega

Somali president Hassan Mohamud makes second visit to Eritrea

FFC groups sign new political declaration

Over 24 killed in new wave of tribal violence in Central Darfur

Disclaimer: All information in this Situation Report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.