Peace negotiations (per 25 November)

  • Getachew Reda, spokesperson for the Regional Government of Tigray, stated that the regional Government of Tigray is “ready to address political problems in a peaceful and political manner” adding that the “will be willing to hand over heavy weapons and heavy armaments as long as the security interests of Tigray are taken care of”.
  • Getachew stated the disarmament, demobilisation, and reintegration process is complex and may take months if not years.
  • Yohannes Woldemariam, a researcher on the politics of the Horn of Africa, told Addis Standard the peace agreement may not be viable in the  long term as it does not address underlying issues.
  • He specifically points to the status of Wolkait in Western Tigray and the conflict between Tigrayan and Amhara nationalists as a “time bomb”.
  • He states pressure from the US could be a major factor ensuring long term commitment of both parties to the CoH.

Situation in Tigray (per 25 November)

  • The World Food Programme warns that “deliveries of assistance within Tigray are not matching the needs and WFP and its cooperating partners urgently need access to all parts of the region.”
  • Parts in the centre and east of Tigray especially remain constrained. Since the start of November, WFP has reached just 29% of the people it wants to reach in Tigray.
  • The Ethiopian Commissioner of the National Disaster Risk Management Commission, Dr Shiferaw Teklemariam, said his government is taking steps to facilitate the flow of humanitarian aid to Tigray and help with reconstructing the infrastructure destroyed in conflict affected areas, reports Ethiopian Herald.
  • The Commissioner said 67 aid trucks with food, medicine and fuel entered Tigray and that unfettered humanitarian access “should not be a concern anymore”.

Situation in Ethiopia (per 25 November)

  • IMF figures show that Ethiopian GDP growth for 2022 is 3.8%. That is down from the 9% growth in 2019. The war and the pandemic are to blame for the slowing growth. Ethiopia also faces increasing debt and is currently negotiating its restructuring with the IMF.
  • The war has also directly impacted the image of the country as a destination for foreign direct investments; cheap energy and a large population could allow for a swift bounce back, says Africa News.
  • After a complex start to their presence in Ethiopia, the Kenyan telecommunications company Safaricom has told Techweez that they commit to providing cellular coverage to 25 cities and 25% of the Ethiopian population by March 2023.

Regional Situation (per 25 November)

  • Fighting between two factions of the Sudan Liberation Army since 19 November has caused the displacement of 5.600 people from Central Darfur State, reports the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
  • The AU states it will delay the withdrawal of its forces present in Somalia due to the resurgence of attacks by terrorist group Al Shabaab. The planned withdrawal will be delayed by 6 months.
  • The Somali government reports that Al Shabaab suffered “massive losses”, 49 dead, following an airstrike by the US air force in cooperation with the Somali National Army in the Lower Shabelle region.
  • Ethio-Kenya Project Site Manager Tewodros Ayalew stated Ethiopia would double its earnings from energy exports in the current fiscal year, exporting 95.5 million US dollars worth of electricity. The revenue is expected to double again within the next three years.
  • Olli Pekka Suorsa, assistant professor in homeland security, says that piracy areas close to the Horn of Africa have shrunk and that the industry plans on removing the high risk area status of the Indian ocean in January 2023.
  • The Horn of Africa remains a high risk area. Additional illicit activities have replaced traditional piracy such as increased terrorist activity, arms smuggling and environmental crimes such as illlegal fishing.
  • The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs stated that 76% (or 9.4 million people) of South Sudan’s population will be in need of humanitarian assistance in 2023.
  • The Humanitarian Coordinator in South Sudan, Sara Beysolow Nyanti, stated that this number increases year on year having gone up by half a million this year.
  • She emphasised that the dire humanitarian situation is made worse by endemic violence, conflict, access constraints, operational interference, public health challenges and climate shocks.

International Situation (per 25 November)

  • Turkey has been added to the list of nations allowed to sell arms to Somalia despite the arms embargo regime recently renewed by the UNSC.
  • Amnesty International urges the African Union to pressure Ethiopian authorities to allow full investigations of the crimes committed during the war in northern Ethiopia.

Links of interest

Ethiopia civil war: We are ready to leave the past behind us

Can Ethiopia peace agreement resolve war in Tigray

Gov’t ‘walks the talk’ of peace accord: Shiferaw Teklemariam

Aid Into Ethiopia’s Tigray ‘Not Matching Needs’: WFP

Essential services resumes in Alamata Town: Mayor

Ethiopia’s power export earnings to double in this FY

Can a peace deal help jumpstart Ethiopia’s economy?

Safaricom Makes Great Strides in Ethiopia with More Than 1M Customers, 561 Network Sites

Sudan: Conflict in Shamal Jabal Marrah, Central Darfur, Flash Update No. 01 (24 November 2022)

Somalia: Al-Shabaab suffers losses in latest military crackdown

African Union to delay Atmis withdrawal from Somalia

Somali pirates have all but disappeared but other threats remain at sea

South Sudan raises alarm on projected increase of people’s humanitarian needs

Türkiye among nations exempted from UN arms sanctions in Somalia

Survivors of sexual violence in Ethiopia deserve justice

Disclaimer: All information in this Situation Report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to any additional information and corrections.