By Martin Plaut

With Ethiopian forces having taken the town of Zalambessa, bordering on Eritrea, the region is at a crossroads. To put it simply: will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed send his troops, supported by the Tigray Peace Force, (TPF) into Eritrea?

The decision is critical. If Ethiopia decides to invade Eritrea, as it did during the border war of 1998-2000, the geopolitics of the region are threatened. Few doubt that the Ethiopians and their allies are incapable of doing so, but if they do invade a number of elements could come into play.

What problems would an invasion of Eritrea pose for Ethiopia?

  1. Any invasion would be illegal. Since 1993 Eritrea has been recognised by the African Union and the United Nations. Ethiopian President Meles visited Asmara at the time, cementing Eritrea’s recognition by Ethiopia. Of course it is also true that President Isaias has repeatedly interfered in Ethiopian affairs, arming dissidents and attempting to shape Ethiopia to Eritrea’s will, but this would take matters to an entirely different level.
  2. Prime Minister Abiy knows that his supply lines are – even now – long and hard to maintain. Ethiopian forces would be stretched if they attempted to capture Eritrea (or parts of Eritrea) while facing attacks in their rear from the Tigray Defence Forces, (TDF) which remains loyal to the TPLF. The TDF was not defeated in Mekelle, instead withdrawing to the mountains, as they have done before. They have hidden supplies and equipment and could easily mount a fierce guerrila campaign against Ethiopian and TPF troops.
  3. Eritrea’s military is no match for the Ethiopian armed forces. It is estimated that Eritrea can field an army 350,000 strong , yet has just 7 working aircraft and not a single operational fighter jet. Much of the rest of its kit dates from the 1998-2000 border war, and a $219m defence budget goes only so far against a neighbour that has been acquiring, and even producing, the drones Eritrea lacks.
  4. So far the Alliance for Survival the Tigrayans forged with Oromo, Amhara and other ethnic groups does not appear to have paid dividends. Attempts to establish a united military strategy to attack Ethiopian forces would not seem to have yielded results. It may be that this is, as was previously predicted, because of earlier problems of disunity. However, this might changed and could prove to be effective in the future.
  5. How might Ethiopia’s allies react? Prime Minister Abiy relies heavily on the UAE for finances and equipment, in return allowing the Emirates to supply their RSF allies (the Janjaweed) in western Ethiopia. Equally, Ethiopia relies on Turkey for the drones that it used to turn the last war with Tigray (2020 – 2022) in its favour. The French News Agency reported recently that “Ethiopia has been manufacturing drones at two factories since last year and is now thought to have a fleet of thousands, analysts say, giving the government an edge against its multiple insurgent enemies.”
  6. At the same time, Eritrea has worked hard to win allies in Egypt and with the Sudanese Armed Forces, as well as mending fences with some of its Arab neighbours. President Donald Trump, desperate to escape from the war that he launched against Iran has moved to improve relations with Asmara. Reuters reported in May, citing an internal US government document, that Washington was preparing to lift the Eritrea sanctions amid renewed focus on the Red Sea and Eritrea’s strategic location. Eritrea is – today – not without powerful friends, something that would not have been true a few months ago. They are likely to put pressure on Addis Ababa not to attempt to seize an Eritrean port, or to overthrow the Eritrean regime.
  7. Any invasion of Eritrea would unite the majority of its people, in the country and the diaspora, behind President Isaias. Even his enemies would, generally, oppose an external threat to their nation.

What advantages might an invasion of Eritrea provide to Ethiopia?

  1. Prime Minister Abiy has long dreamed of having a port on the Red Sea. He argued that it is an existential question for Ethiopia. He explained that Ethiopia’s rights and claims of access to the port are rooted in geographical, historical, ethnic, or economic reasons. Nor has he ruled out taking a port by force. It would secure Ethiopia’s route to the outside world, instead of having to depend on Djibouti for its access to the sea.
  2. Ethiopians have urged him to act, arguing that: “Ethiopia’s modern naval history took shape in the aftermath of the Second World War. In 1948, the Imperial Ethiopian Navy was formally established, with its first naval base set up at the port of Massawa…Now, as Ethiopia seeks to strengthen its economic and strategic links with the Red Sea, the horizon is once again part of its national conversation. From Red Sea waters to a new strategic era, Ethiopia’s maritime journey is increasingly becoming a story not only of recovering what was lost, but of building the capability and partnerships needed to shape what comes next.”
  3. If Ethiopian forces could capture Asmara, and take the remainder of Eritrea, new opportunities would open up. It would allow Prime Minister Abiy to settle once and for all which nation was supreme in the Horn of Africa. He could either establish a puppet government in Eritrea or (less likely) attempt to reverse its declaration of independence, and re-absorb Eritrea into Ethiopia. For someone with the ambitions of Abiy Ahmed both must appear tempting prospects. At the same time he cannot ignore the fact that Eritreans fought for 30 years for their independence. They would not roll over and accept Addis’s rule.
  4. Eliminating Eritrea as a competitor would leave the Ethiopian Prime Minister in a much more powerful position vis-a-vis Sudan. He could bolster his support for the RSF and turn the Sudanese civil war in their favour. Might the UAE be quietly egging him on for precisely this reason?

Other factors are, of course, in play. However these are some that appear to be shaping this critical decision: to invade or not to invade. We will have to wait to see the outcome of Prime Minister Abiy’s deliberations and ambitions.