A growing gap in case growth between Europe and the U.S. tells the tale: Declaring victory too soon is an excellent way to return to new heights. 

Source: Bloomberg

Texas, which had allowed bars to reopen, is now reversing course as coronavirus cases mount.
Texas, which had allowed bars to reopen, is now reversing course as coronavirus cases mount.

Photographer: Dave Creaney/Anadolu Agency/Anadolu via Getty Images

The alarming chart below has been making the rounds. It illustrates the poor job the U.S. has done in containing Covid-19 compared to the European Union, a bigger region of independent countries that suffered an earlier outbreak. Why the big difference? What is America doing wrong?

Mind the Gap

America’s failure to contain the virus is becoming more evident every day

Screenshot 2020-06-27 at 10.52.03

There are a lot of possible answers to those questions. A sluggish initial response and failure to ramp up testing let the virus spread far and wide in the U.S. And instead of coordinating a coherent and aggressive national response, President Donald Trump has consistently downplayed the threat of the infection and left decisions to insufficiently supported states. As a result, decisions over lockdowns and reopenings have been chaotic and have ignored the guidelines put forth by federal public health officials.

Amid all of this, one particular difference stands out between the American and European approaches. Many states were happy to reopen after simply “bending the curve” — that is, slowing upward growth and ensuring spare hospital capacity. These states went on to expand economic activity at an elevated plateau with lots of ongoing transmissions. In contrast, European countries mostly waited to reopen until they crushed the curve or reached its far slope, with substantially lower incidence or dramatic reductions in the viral spread. It’s not the only explanation for a growing gap, but it’s a compelling one.

Curve Breakers vs Curve Benders

European countries have done a better job bringing Covid-19 under control

Screenshot 2020-06-27 at 10.53.57

Italy is something of an exception, having opened with a comparatively high case count. However, the country was recovering from a particularly large and concentrated outbreak, and its incidence was on a steep downward trajectory. Its average daily count was below 20 cases per million within a week of its initial limited opening, a metric none of the most troubled states have managed since early April.

Persistently high case levels amid a substantial reopening also make it far more challenging to identify and isolate a high percentage of infected individuals — again, a numbers problem. At a certain point, there are too many cases and contacts to have a hope of tracing them.

Some of These Curves Are Not Like The Others

Given opportunities, the virus will spread

Screenshot 2020-06-27 at 10.55.12

The gap with Europe argues for more restraint from fast-opening states going forward, and in fact, some governors are taking the cue. In Texas, where cases are rising at a dangerous rate, Republican Governor Greg Abbott has called a halt to business reopenings and ordered taverns closed. North Carolina has also frozen it reopening efforts, as have Utah and Nevada. And of course there is the example of New York and New Jersey, both of which waited until their steep curves were tamed before starting reopening efforts; now, even as activities resume in both states, new cases have slowed to a trickle.

The chart tells the tale: Declaring victory too close to the top of the curve appears to be an excellent way to return to new heights.