Date: 4 June 2026

It has become increasingly evident to those closely following developments in the region that the Federal Government has been determined to undermine and ultimately terminate the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA). Violations of the Agreement have been systematic, while the institutions established to implement it have largely failed to function. As a result, none of the Agreement’s core provisions have been meaningfully implemented. This reality confirms that the Federal Government lacked the political commitment necessary to sustain and reinforce peace from the outset. Its pronouncements and actions have rendered the Agreement effectively moribund. In light of these persistent violations and the paralysis of the peace process, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has undertaken internal deliberations aimed at preserving institutional continuity and preventing a governance vacuum.

TPLF acts

Following extensive consultations, the TPLF leadership concluded that it was necessary to explore all available political options to address the governance vacuum. Among the options considered were the continuation of the Interim Regional Administration, the establishment of a transitional government, the reinstatement of the 2020 elected House of Representatives, and the holding of elections in the parts of Tigray not currently under the occupation of illegal forces supported by the Federal Government. These discussions were conducted throughout towns and villages across Tigray, involving more than one million participants. Following a thorough assessment of the merits and drawbacks of the available options, an overwhelming majority of participants favored the reinstatement of the elected House of Representatives. This decision was further endorsed by the Town, Woreda, and Tabia Councils, all of which are duly elected representative institutions.

Accordingly, it was decided to call upon the duly elected body to resume its sovereign mandate and facilitate the establishment of an inclusive executive and judicial structure. These measures are intended to preserve order, legitimacy, and governance in the absence of a functioning and mutually respected political framework.

Although the TPLF secured a decisive victory in the 2020 regional elections, its leadership resolved to make the executive branch as inclusive as possible and to submit its proposals to the House of Representatives for review and approval. To this end, the TPLF proposed that one-third of cabinet positions be allocated to opposition parties. Following thorough deliberation, the House endorsed the proposal, and the offer has since been extended to opposition political organizations. It is believed that such inclusivity will contribute positively to strengthening political unity and social cohesion in the collective defense of Tigray’s interests.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian and economic situation in Tigray remains dire. The population continues to suffer under what it views as a cruel and debilitating siege imposed by the Federal Government. The embargo on fuel has effectively paralyzed economic activity. Transportation services, agricultural production, and other economic sectors have largely come to a standstill. The situation has been further exacerbated by restrictions on the flow of commercial goods into Tigray, resulting in soaring inflation that has pushed basic necessities beyond the purchasing power of ordinary citizens. Economic activity in towns and cities continues to decline to intolerable levels.

This hardship has been compounded by the large-scale military mobilization of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) along Tigray’s borders. The encirclement of the region has generated profound socioeconomic hardship and psychological distress among the population. The resilience of the people under such circumstances is remarkable, yet there remains a widespread hope that reason and common sense will ultimately prevail.

The plight of internally displaced persons (IDPs) continues to deteriorate. As another rainy season approaches, their already unbearable living conditions are expected to worsen. It has become increasingly apparent that the Federal Government and its allies in Western Tigray are determined to prevent displaced persons from returning to their homes and farmlands. Humanitarian assistance has also declined significantly, further exacerbating the crisis. Indeed, some international agencies are now withdrawing their humanitarian support altogether. At the same time, the illegal administration and its armed collaborators continue to perpetrate serious human rights abuses in the area. New arrivals to displacement camps continue to be reported, underscoring the ongoing insecurity and suffering faced by the population.

The wider picture

Beyond Tigray, the Federal Government continues military operations in the Amhara and Oromia regions. These conflicts have resulted in the loss of civilian lives and widespread suffering through the use of ground forces, artillery, and drone strikes. Rather than pursuing peace, the Government has chosen to proceed with elections that it presents as evidence of democratic legitimacy. Yet significant portions of the country—including all of Tigray and large areas of Amhara and Oromia, as well as parts of Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella—remain excluded from the electoral process.

Moreover, no credible opposition party has meaningfully participated in these elections, largely due to government harassment and restrictions. The elections therefore fail to reflect a genuine democratic contest. Legitimacy cannot be achieved through the exclusion, repression, starvation, or killing of citizens. Ethiopia’s current challenges require an inclusive and credible national dialogue capable of addressing the country’s fundamental political problems. Prosperity Party-led elections, in their present form, cannot resolve the country’s deepening crises. On the contrary, they risk aggravating them further, particularly if the regime continues to rely on force as its principal response to mounting political challenges.

The trajectory is unmistakable. A policy of unilateralism, coercion, and militarization is increasingly replacing dialogue, compromise, and political agreement. The continued pursuit of this course will inevitably heighten the risk of renewed armed confrontation. Such a conflict would not remain confined within Ethiopia’s borders. Given existing regional tensions and hostile posturing toward neighboring states, any renewed war would have far-reaching consequences for the broader Horn of Africa. It would further destabilize an already fragile region and deepen existing humanitarian and security crises.

Despite the Federal Government’s intransigent positions, the Tigray National Regional Government and the TPLF reiterate their unwavering commitment to a peaceful resolution of the crisis. Tigray remains under severe and increasing pressure, and it is evident that every society has limits to what it can endure. Nevertheless, we remain convinced that dialogue is the only viable path toward resolving Ethiopia’s political impasse.

We therefore reaffirm our readiness to engage in a credible political process facilitated and supported by the international community and aimed at addressing the root causes of the crisis.

In this context, the international community must assume a more active role in bringing the parties to the negotiating table. It bears a clear and unavoidable responsibility to use its influence and leverage to encourage meaningful engagement and to overcome the Federal Government’s current intransigent posture. The situation demands urgent, coordinated, and concrete action to initiate a credible political dialogue before it is too late.

The risk of conflict

The present moment is decisive. The risk of catastrophic conflict is no longer hypothetical. War is already exacting a heavy toll in Amhara and Oromia, and the danger of renewed confrontation involving Tigray is becoming increasingly imminent. Failure to act cannot be regarded as neutrality. It would amount to acquiescence in the further deterioration of an already intolerable situation and increase the likelihood of a return to full-scale war.

War remains avoidable. Its prevention, however, now depends on immediate, principled, and sustained international engagement.

Gebrehiwot Maru