Peace negotiations (per 09 November)

  • Meeting of Chief Military commanders in Nairobi, including TDF General Tadesse and ENDF Field Marshal Berhanu Jula, is ongoing and apparently in a good mood or spirit so far.
  • Talks seem to be stuck, however, on the point of what the conditions for disarmament of “TPLF forces”  are. Tigray insists that Eritrean and Amharan troops must leave Tigray before disarmament begins with phase 1, surrendering of heavy arms.
  • Ethiopia insists that heavy arms must be surrendered first, then ENDF will take charge of security and borders, and then the Eritrean and Amharan forces will leave. 
  • According to Mohamed Kheir Omer, African-Norwegian researcher and writer, former member of the Eritrean Liberation Front, writing for the African Argument, the Fano militia denounced the peace agreement because of its endorsement of the current constitution as it believes that it goes against Amhara interests.
  • He also questions the timeline of 30 days for disarmament of Tigray forces based on the continued presence of Eritrean forces, the lack of trust and the usual timeline of such processes being spread across months if not years.
  • There have also been complaints from the National Movement of Amhara that the peace agreement failed to recognize Amhara claims to the areas of Welkait and Raya, heavily disputed with Tigray.

Situation in Tigray (per 09 November)

  • Sources on the ground report that Eritrean forces shelled the towns of Edaga Arbi, Nebelet and surrounding areas near Adwa town in central Tigray on 8 November.
  • Eritrean forces are also reportedly carrying out mass killings of farmers who reside in areas near (around 7 km) Kerseber (unverified).
  • BBC reports instances of TDF and ENDF soldiers exchanging food and cigarettes on the former front line.
  • Sources state that the Eritrean government has blocked many buses from returning from Eritrea to Ethiopia in the Teseney area. Numbers of buses mentioned range from ‘seventy’ to ‘hundreds’. The buses are taking Ethiopian soldiers, some injured, on transport back to Gondar.
  • Eritrean Minister of Information, Yemane G. Meskel, states that the 2018 secret agreement between Eritrea and Ethiopia included Tigray. He says it is “time to close shop” for Tigray.
  • Taz, a German news outlet, reports that heavy fighting is still opposing TDF and EDF forces around Zalambessa and Edaga-arbit.
  • Sources in Adwa state that it is impossible to leave the city as Eritrean troops control the way out and fighting is taking place along the roads as of 7 November.
  • Sources also report shelling on Adigrat by Eritrean forces prompting many to flee to the surrounding mountains.

Situation in Ethiopia (per 09 November)

  • A report by Bloomberg says that Ethiopia is seeking International Monetary Fund (IMF) financing to provide food for its people after severe drought and civil war damaged farming production.
  • IMF told Bloomberg that “Ethiopian authorities have indicated an interest in accessing the IMF’s food shock window”.
  • The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that over 20 million people in Ethiopia, including those who fled their homes due to the conflict in the Tigray region, do not have enough to eat.
  • Residents of Nekemte told Addis Standard that civilians have been killed following intense fighting between the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and government forces in Nekemte city of Oromia region.
  • Two residents said that the clash started after several fighters of the OLA entered the city and were able to partly take control of it on 6 November.
  • According to the Reporter Ethiopia, Amb. Redwan Hussein, National Security Adviser to the Prime Minister, said that the US played an important role in the peace process by persuading and pressuring the TPLF to come to the negotiations.
  • Redwan stated that the role of the UN and EU in the  peace process was unconstructive.
  • He said the Ethiopian government does not have complaints against the EU as an institution but pointed out that it is only one EU member country that is causing problems without mentioning the name.
  • Source states that in an interview last night with EMS (formerly ESAT), the Amhara Regional President pointed out that the Pretoria agreement did not resolve the status of Raja and Welkait.
  • The Regional President stated that there would be no negotiations about them and they would remain under control of Amhara Special Forces and militias.
  • The Ethiopian Media Authority is rolling out a set of guidelines to showcase how reporting on the peace agreement is expected to be conducted

Regional Situation (per 09 November)

  • Somali President, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, will be visiting Eritrea to negotiate the return of the 5000 Somali troops stuck in the country after finishing their training, says Keydmedia.
  • The troops are reportedly held against their will in exchange for 50 million US$ demanded by Eritrea, which some call a ransom on the soldiers held as hostages.
  • The Somali government remains reluctant to declare a state of famine. Aid workers believe such an announcement would allow increased aid from donors, but the Somali government believes it would undermine public good will it enjoys just as their offensive against terrorist group al-Shabab intensifies.

Links of interest

Who can trust the Ethiopia peace deal?

Tigray after the Peace Agreement: Between Trauma and Hope

ወተሃደራት ፈደራልን ዕጡቓት ትግራይን ኣብ ግንባር መግብን ሽጋራን ይካፈሉ – BBC News ትግርኛ

Ethiopia seeks IMF loan to fend off hunger for 20 million people

Civilians killed in a fighting between OLA and government forces in Nekemte of Oromia region

አሜሪካ ሕወሓትን በማሳመንና በመጫን በሰላም ሒደቱ ትልቅ ሚና መጫወቷን የኢትዮጵያ ዋና ተደራዳሪ አስታወቁ

Authority preparing media guideline to report on Ethiopia cessation of hostilities agreement

Somali president heads to Eritrea for the return of troops

Somalis Are Going Hungry. Their Government Isn’t Calling It a Famine.

Disclaimer: All information in this Situation Report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to any additional information and corrections.