Peace negotiations (per 29 November)

  • Observers state that intense travelling of Eritrean officials to Somalia and Ethiopia could be indicative of an attempt at creating a regional “defensive alliance”. This could be aimed at attempting to provide a rationale for keeping Eritrean troops inside of Ethiopia.
  • Yemane Gebremeskel, Eritrean minister of information, reacted to US calls to withdraw from Tigray by stating that the “Defense architectures between sovereign African States is not subject to prior endorsement, or veto by extraneous powers”.
  • Sources state the president of the Amhara regional state has visited Asmara, Eritrea, for multiple days, reportedly without the federal Ethiopian government being informed of this visit.
  • The Institute for Security Studies writes that the success of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement in the long term rests on the ability of signatories to install a “peace coalition” in the Afar, Amhara and Tigray region and Ethiopia as a whole.
  • They state that the question of disputed land ownership must be resolved; the constitution states this can be achieved by referendum.

Situation in Tigray (per 29 November)

  • Tghat Media, a Tigrayan media outlet, cites sources that had escaped Eritrean-controlled Tigray who report that Eritrean forces are abducting youth to Eritrea for forced labour and sexual exploitation.
  • OCHA reports that the aid reaching Tigray is still not enough to meet the needs. 30% of Tigray children are suffering acute malnutrition and 5 million people remain in need of food aid.
  • Ethiopia’s Minister for Innovation and Technology, Belete Molla, told the Washington Post on 29 November that there is “no timeline” for the restoration of services in Tigray

Situation in Ethiopia (per 29 November)

  • Sources state OLA forces are conducting operations in and on the outskirts of Addis Ababa. They also stated to have conducted raids on homes of perceived loyalists of PM Abiy and offices 15km from Addis.
  • The Oromia regional state government called on Oromos that joined the OLA to “return to peace”.
  • The regional state government ruled out a negotiated peace agreement, stating that the fragmentation of the OLA is too fragmented and lacks leadership. The OLA disputes this.
  • Sources state that the Central Council and Executive Committee members of the Prosperity Party from PM Abiy have been summoned on 3 December for a meeting on systemic corruption within government. It is likely the CoH Agreement will be on the agenda as well.
  • According to Addis Standard China has provided the Ethiopian police forces with 600.000 USD worth of equipment and currency. The donation includes bullet proof vehicles and communications equipment.

Situation in Eritrea (per 29 November)

  • A conference organised by Eritrea Focus took place from 22-24 November in London, with the focus of charting a way towards democracy for Eritrea.
  • Mebrahtu Atewberhan, member of Eritrea Focus, stated that “Eritrea has become a prison state” and that the Eritreans are ready for change – but are lacking the leadership.

Regional Situation (per 29 November)

  • Demeke Mekonnen, Ethiopian Deputy PM and Foreign Minister, arrived in Khartoum on 29 November to participate in the 48th meeting of IGAD Council of Ministers, which will address the peace and security situation in the Horn of Africa
  • The BBC says that Somali security forces brought an end to the 20-hour siege of a hotel in Mogadishu that resulted in the death of 14 including 8 civilians after it was captured by Al Shabaab militants. The hotel is a popular meeting place for government officials. One minister was injured.
  • Chairperson of the UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan, Yasmin Sooka, called for justice of victims of sexual violence in South Sudan. She stated: “it is not enough, now and again, to try a handful of junior officers without holding those in command responsible.”
  • President of Jubaland regional State in Somalia, Ahmed  Madobe, announced that the regional state’s security forces were mobilising to participate in Somalia’s “total war” against Al Shabaab.
  • OCHA warns that humanitarian groups are already forced to make “impossible choices” in Horn of Africa countries impacted by drought, as the 6th rainy season in a row is set to fail.
  • It states that “immediate action is required to prevent famine in the Horn of Africa as the most prolonged drought in recent history continues to deepen.”

International Situation (per 29 November)

  • US President Biden signed a presidential memorandum on 27 November that seeks to combat the use of rape by both foreign governments and individuals as a weapon of war, says AP News.

Links of interest

Twitter: Yemane G. Meskel Defense architectures between sovereign African States

The Ethiopia-Tigray Question of Accountability for International Crimes

Ethiopia needs a peace coalition to underpin its new accord

Twitter: Tghat ትግሃት Sources who escaped from Eritrean-controlled Tigray

Daily Noon Briefing Highlights: Ethiopia and Ukraine

Ethiopia offers no date for end to blackout in Tigray region

China provides Ethiopian Federal Police equipment worth above US$600, 000

Oromia region calls on youth who join armed group to return, rules out peace talks

Eritreans across the world come together to chart a way towards democracy

Ethiopian DPM, FM arrives in Khartoum

Somalia Villa Rays attack: Siege ends leaving eight civilians dead

UN experts call on South Sudan to investigate top government officials for their role in sexual violence

Jubbaland President says regional troops will open new front against Al Shabaab

Horn of Africa Drought: Regional Humanitarian Overview & Call to Action

Biden boosts US effort to stem sexual violence in war zones

Justice critical to fighting sexual violence in conflict

Disclaimer: All information in this Situation Report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to any additional information and corrections.