We’re still in the fog of war so it’s tough to determine exactly what is happening on the ground, and new information might change the picture entirely.
Source: Joshua Meservey, Senior Fellow,@HudsonInstitute from Tweet
There is still potentially a long way to go in the current fighting in Ethiopia, but at this point it appears as though the Tigrayan army badly miscalculated either its own forces’ ability to take on the national forces, the strength of the coalition it formed against the government, or the level of support it would receive from Eritrea.
I doubt the rebel coalition is entirely a spent force, but at least for now the most urgent question is whether there will be a full-scale Ethiopia-Eritrea clash (again).
There are Eritrean forces inside Ethiopia. That constitutes an invasion by any measure, and Ethiopia is within its rights to push them out. Beyond that, however, I hope the Ethiopians take no further action.
TPLF leadership is rumored to be in Eritrea which would understandably anger Addis, but it appears the TPLF may be a discredited and spent political force. Ordinary Tigrayans seem to have little appetite for another war of the sort the TPLF launched.
This is also an opportunity for Addis to reassert control of its full territory, a clear victory. The US should urge it to be content with those gains.
The Eritreans should cut their losses by withdrawing fully into their own borders. The US should make it clear that any further rapprochement depends on Asmara’s forces staying out of Ethiopia.
I hope Washington will talk with all the conflict’s outside parties to get everyone to agree to participate in deescalation. A full Eritrean-Ethiopian clash would be awful for both countries and the region.
We’re still in the fog of war so it’s tough to determine exactly what is happening on the ground, and new information might change the picture entirely. But right now there seems to be an opportunity to prevent this from getting worse, as long as the Eritreans get out of Ethiopia immediately.
